With lots of Tony threads and predictions on specific races, I figured there should be a general predictions thread. I’m sure there was one, but I couldn’t dig deep enough to find it. Here’s some rough predix to start off. Some reaches, and probably more hopedicting than I’d like to think, but like I said, they’re rough.
I'm seeing Mother Play in a few weeks, and avoiding the thread until then. Can someone indicate whether Celia Keenan-Bolger is likely to go Lead or Featured?
I ask because there's a very real chance that Lead Actress in a Play doesn't meet the threshold for an automatic 5 nominees. They need 9 eligible performers, right? So right now I count (in no particular order)
1. Sarah Paulson 2. Jessica Lange 3. Rachel McAdams 4. Laura Bell Bundy 5. Amy Ryan 6. Betsy Aidem 7. Laurie Metcalf 8. Tatiana Maslany
I'm thinking that both Stereophonic women will go featured, though I suppose they could try to bump Pidgeon up to lead. And the role of Sonya in Uncle Vanya has historically been considered supporting, so Allison Pill likely won't be in this category.
So that's why I ask about Celia Keenan-Bolger. If she's more of a supporting role, I think we're looking at 4 nominees in Lead -- unless I'm missing someone?
Many of these of are pretty good guesses, but these last two I doubt. Book for Illinoise would be a stretch, and may go to a Suffs or even Outsiders. I think with a season without a breakout score (or show), Stereophonic for Score.
I am thinking Mother Play will take that spot you have for Mary Jane
Jeff Tupolski said: "With lots of Tony threads and predictions on specific races, I figured there should be a general predictions thread. I’m sure therewas one, but I couldn’t dig deep enough to find it. Here’s some rough predix to start off. Some reaches, and probably more hopedicting than I’d like to think, but like I said, they’re rough.
I feel like Water for Elephants is going to end up doing a lot better than a lot of us are expecting. Comparatively, it ended up being one of the better received shows (not a high bar this year, but still) and folks like Rick Elice and Jessica Stone are very beloved in the industry. That should be enough to land it in Best Musical and potentially even Book, Score and Direction, in addition to the design awards.
BJR said: “Many of these of are pretty good guesses, but these last two I doubt.Book for Illinoise would be a stretch, and may go to a Suffs or even Outsiders. I think with a season without a breakout score (or show), Stereophonic for Score."
Yeah, I won’t lie, those are my biggest stretches. Illinoise is basically just me being optimistic that the most acclaimed show can overcome the lack of dialogue against a crop of mediocre books. If it doesn’t take off on Broadway the way I hope it does, then I’ll probably swap it out.
I did think of Stereophonic for the win. I’d love to see it, and think the music is integral and praised enough for it to happen in this open field. But I decided an actual musical winning was playing it safer and picked a closed one that I still think stands above those expected to be running in June. But it’s very far from set in stone, I could change to Stereophonic by tonight.
JoeW4 said: "I'm seeing Mother Play in a few weeks, and avoiding the thread until then. Can someone indicate whether Celia Keenan-Bolger is likely to go Lead or Featured?
I ask because there's a very real chance that Lead Actress in a Play doesn't meet the threshold for an automatic 5 nominees. They need 9 eligible performers, right? So right now I count (in no particular order)
1. Sarah Paulson 2. Jessica Lange 3. Rachel McAdams 4. Laura Bell Bundy 5. Amy Ryan 6. Betsy Aidem 7. Laurie Metcalf 8. Tatiana Maslany
I'm thinking that both Stereophonic women will go featured, though I suppose they could try to bump Pidgeon up to lead. And the role of Sonya in Uncle Vanya has historically been considered supporting, so Allison Pill likely won't be in this category.
So that's why I ask about Celia Keenan-Bolger. If she's more of a supporting role, I think we're looking at 4 nominees in Lead -- unless I'm missing someone?"
Mother Play is a current blindspot for me, I don’t know where Celia belongs, but I’m guessing she’ll be put in Featured, whether it’s appropriate placement or not.
I put five because I use GoldDerby’s prediction center and although they haven’t yet expanded the field to five nominees, they have nine women listed as leads, with Anika Noni Rose rounding out the actresses you mentioned. I think Rose and Pill’s roles in Uncle Vanya have historically been nominated in both lead and supporting categories, so I’m not sure if they’ll be submitted where that site currently has them, but I’ll stick with the idea of nine eligible performances for now. If it winds up being just four nominees, then I’d take out McAdams.
Of course, with all the recent ties, it could still wind up being five nominees even if it’s less than nine contenders eligible. I’m sure we’re gonna see some ties again, but I decided to play by the official numbers for now. Since someone mentioned him though, I was very close to including Eli Gelb in a lineup of six here. Even then, Featured Actor is pretty hard to nail down this year. I’d be happy to see it expanded with all the great work eligible.
Here's my current predictions - likely to change after the reviews of this last slew of shows come out! I listed all my Musical predictions first then my Play predictions. I did not list all the individual names besides actors just for time's sake.
Best Musical Hell's Kitchen Illinoise The Outsiders Suffs Water For Elephants
Revival of a Musical Cabaret Merrily We Roll Along The Who's Tommy The Wiz
Lead Actress in a Musical Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook Gayle Rankin, Cabaret Shaina Taub, Suffs
Lead Actor in a Musical Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along Dorian Harewood, The Notebook Brian D'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret Chip Zien, Harmony
Featured Actress in a Musical Krystal Joy Brown, Merrily We Roll Along Nikki M. James, Suffs Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Spamalot Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret
Featured Actor in a Musical Joshua Boone, The Outsiders Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen Paul Alexander Nolan, Water For Elephants Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along Steven Skybell, Cabaret
Original Score Days of Wine and Roses The Notebook The Outsiders Stereophonic Suffs
Book of a Musical Days of Wine and Roses Hell's Kitchen The Notebook The Outsiders Suffs
Direction of a Musical Cabaret Hell's Kitchen Here Lies Love Merrily We Roll Along The Outsiders
Choreography Cabaret Hell's Kitchen Illinoise Water For Elephants The Who's Tommy
Scenic Design of a Musical Back to the Future Cabaret The Great Gatsby Here Lies Love Merrily We Roll Along
Costume Design of a Musical Cabaret The Great Gatsby Here Lies Love Merrily We Roll Along The Who's Tommy
Lighting Design of a Musical Back to the Future Cabaret The Great Gatsby Here Lies Love The Who's Tommy
Sound Design of a Musical Cabaret Hell's Kitchen Merrily We Roll Along The Outsiders Suffs
Orchestrations Days of Wine and Roses The Great Gatsby The Notebook Suffs The Who's Tommy
Best Play Jaja's African Hair Braiding Mother Play Patriots Prayer For the French Republic Stereophonic
Revival of a Play Appropriate Purlie Victorious Uncle Vanya
Lead Actress in a Play Jessica Lange, Mother Play Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane Sarah Paulson, Appropriate Amy Ryan, Doubt
Lead Actor in a Play Steve Carell, Uncle Vanya Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots
Featured Actress in a Play Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play Victoria Pedretti, An Enemy of the People Sarah Pidegon, Stereophonic Kara Young, Purlie Victorious
Featured Actor in a Play Will Brill, Stereophonic Michael Imperioli, An Enemy of the People Will Keen, Patriots Jay O. Sanders, Purlie Victorious Corey Stoll, Appropriate
Direction of a Play Appropriate Patriots Prayer for the French Republic Purlie Victorious Stereophonic
Scenic Design of a Play Appropriate The Cottage I Need That Purlie Victorious Stereophonic
Costume Design of a Play Appropriate Jaja's African Hair Braiding Prayer for the French Republic Purlie Victorious Stereophonic
Lighting Design of a Play Appropriate Doubt Grey House Purlie Victorious Stereophonic
Sound Design of a Play Appropriate Grey House Patriots Purlie Victorious Stereophonic
Nomination Totals 11 nominations: Cabaret 9 nominations: Merrily We Roll Along, Purlie Victorious, Stereophonic 8 nominations: Appropriate 7 nominations: Suffs 6 nominations: Hell's Kitchen, The Outsiders 5 nominations: Days of Wine and Roses, The Notebook, Patriots, The Who's Tommy 4 nominations: The Great Gatsby, Here Lies Love, Prayer for the French Republic 3 nominations: An Enemy of the People, Mother Play, Water For Elephants 2 nominations: Back to the Future, Doubt, Grey House, Illinoise, Jaja's African Hair Braiding, Uncle Vanya 1 nomination: The Cottage, Harmony, I Need That, Mary Jane, Spamalot, The Wiz 0 nominations: Gutenberg, The Heart of Rock 'n' Roll, How to Dance in Ohio, Lempicka, Once Upon a One More Time, The Shark is Broken
Many of these of are pretty good guesses, but these last two I doubt.Book for Illinoise would be a stretch, and may go to a Suffs or even Outsiders. I think with a season without a breakout score (or show), Stereophonic for Score."
I think Suffs had enough great reviews for the score to take that award before a play does, easily.
CoffeeBreak said: "There is a lot of underestimation of Illinoise, Ricky Ubeda, Ben Cook, book and direction.. That should change Tuesday.
Eli Gelb.
The Days of Wine and Roses, Stereophonic, Here Lies Loveetc etc scores are allbetter and more musically sophisticatedthan Suffs."
I don't doubt that, but it's so rare for a closed show to win this award that I think the only from this century to do so was Bridges of Madison County, I will bet Shaina will likely get something for the show and score seems likely.
Jeff Tupolski said: "I put five because I use GoldDerby’s prediction center and although they haven’t yet expanded the field to five nominees,they have nine women listed as leads, withAnika Noni Rose rounding out the actresses you mentioned.I thinkRose and Pill’s roles in Uncle Vanya have historically been nominatedin both lead and supporting categories, so I’m not sure if they’ll besubmittedwhere that site currently has them, but I’ll stick with the idea of nine eligible performances for now. If it winds up being just four nominees, then I’d take out McAdams.
I see that Janet McTeer was nominated as Lead Actress Oliviers for playing Yelena in the 90s, so I'll give you that. But I wouldn't necessarily trust the Oliviers on category placement, nor would I trust Gold Derby. I would've thought that Yelena's status as a supporting role is fairly undeniable. Clearly that's not entirely the case, but even so, I'd be really surprised if the Tonys go for that ruling this year.
With a quick search on IBDB, the Lortel Archives, and the Wikipedia pages for those Olivier categories, I can't find a case where Sonya was nominated as a lead -- although my search obviously wasn't exhaustive. I actually think there's a much better case for calling Sonya the female lead of Uncle Vanya compared to Yelena, but i don't see the precedent there.
In any case, I sure hope McAdams isn't the one kicked out if it's only 4 nominees. Maybe a hot take, but for my money she gave the best performance in the category!
I don’t know if it’s much more extensive than this, but I remember the Oliviers also nominating Emily Watson as a lead for playing Sonya.
I’m surprised you think Yelena is an undeniably supporting role. The titular character steals the spotlight, but Vanya doesn’t really get much more focus than Yelena, Sonya, and Astrov.
I’m not sure where the show’s women will be pushed, and I’m not really giving the matter too much thought since I don’t think they’ll make the lineup in either category. But one is listed in lead on the site I use, so I’ll keep the number rounded up until it’s ruled otherwise.
Best Musical Hell's Kitchen Illinoise The Outsiders Suffs Water For Elephants
A Chorus Line revival played its final Broadway performance on August 17, 2008. The tour played its final performance on August 21, 2011. A new non-equity tour started in October 2012 played its final performance on March 23, 2013. Another non-equity tour launched on January 20, 2018. The tour ended its US run in Kansas City and then toured throughout Japan August & September 2018.
I've been stubbornly holding on to a slot for Here Lies Love in my Best Musical lineup, but with the warm critical reception for Hell's Kitchen and Suffs I'm not sure what else to exclude. I'm assuming based on early word here that Illinoise is the frontrunner, and I'm fine with Lempicka being mainly a tech and performance contender, but I can't see fewer than two of The Outsiders, The Notebook, and Water For Elephants getting in. And who knows what the critics will say about The Great Gatsby and Heart of Rock and Roll?
Also, on the Play side of things, can I get some tips on who will be contenders from Stereophonic acting-wise? I've mostly seen praise for the show more broadly than singling out any individual performance in it.
Best Musical Hell's Kitchen Illinoise The Outsiders Suffs Water For Elephants"
I think it’s safe to lock in Illinoise and HK and pretty safe to lock in Suffs. I think one of either (or both) Outsiders and WoE could be knocked out by Wine & Roses, HLL, or a surprise nomination for Heart of Rock and Roll, if it manages to get positive reviews that match its very positive word of mouth. It’s been such a weird season, though, so who knows.
"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."
Best Musical Hell's Kitchen Illinoise The Outsiders Suffs Water For Elephants"
I think it’s safe to lock in Illinoise and HK and prettysafe to lock in Suffs. I think one of either (or both) Outsiders and WoE could be knocked out by Wine & Roses, HLL, or a surprise nomination for Heart of Rock and Roll, if it manages to get positive reviews that match its very positiveword of mouth. It’s been such a weird season, though, so who knows."
Yeah I feel least sure of Water For Elephants. I think The Outsiders is close to locking in.
Featured Actress in a Musical Krystal Joy Brown,Merrily We Roll Along Nikki M. James,Suffs Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer,Spamalot Lindsay Mendez,Merrily We Roll Along Bebe Neuwirth,Cabaret
Thank you for recognizing Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer! She was phenomenal as the Lady of the Lake. Unfortunately, critics tend to not give awards to comedic roles but this one should be considered!
CathyM3 said: " Featured Actress in a Musical Krystal Joy Brown,Merrily We Roll Along Nikki M. James,Suffs Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer,Spamalot Lindsay Mendez,Merrily We Roll Along Bebe Neuwirth,Cabaret
Thank you for recognizing Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer! She was phenomenal as the Lady of the Lake. Unfortunately, critics tend to not give awards to comedic roles but this one should be considered!"