2024 Tony Predictions

I'm seeing Mother Play in a few weeks, and avoiding the thread until then. Can someone indicate whether Celia Keenan-Bolger is likely to go Lead or Featured?

I ask because there's a very real chance that Lead Actress in a Play doesn't meet the threshold for an automatic 5 nominees. They need 9 eligible performers, right? So right now I count (in no particular order)

1. Sarah Paulson
2. Jessica Lange
3. Rachel McAdams
4. Laura Bell Bundy
5. Amy Ryan
6. Betsy Aidem
7. Laurie Metcalf
8. Tatiana Maslany

I'm thinking that both Stereophonic women will go featured, though I suppose they could try to bump Pidgeon up to lead. And the role of Sonya in Uncle Vanya has historically been considered supporting, so Allison Pill likely won't be in this category.

So that's why I ask about Celia Keenan-Bolger. If she's more of a supporting role, I think we're looking at 4 nominees in Lead -- unless I'm missing someone?

I am thinking Mother Play will take that spot you have for Mary Jane


Jeff Tupolski said: "With lots of Tony threads and predictions on specific races, I figured there should be a general predictions thread. I’m sure therewas one, but I couldn’t dig deep enough to find it. Here’s some rough predix to start off. Some reaches, and probably more hopedicting than I’d like to think, but like I said, they’re rough.


Play

• Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
• Mary Jane
• Patriots
• Prayer for the French Republic
• Stereophonic

Musical

• Hell’s Kitchen
• Here Lies Love
• Illinoise
• The Outsiders
• Suffs

Play Revival

• An Enemy of the People
• Appropriate
• Purlie Victorious

Musical Revival

• Cabaret
• Merrily We Roll Along
• Monty Python’s Spamalot
• The Who’s Tommy

Actor in a Play

• Leslie Odom Jr. — Purlie Victorious
• Liev Schreiber — Doubt: A Parable
• Jeremy Strong — An Enemy of the People
• Michael Stuhlbarg — Patriots

Actress in a Play

• Betsy Aidem — Prayer for the French Republic
• Jessica Lange — Mother Play
• Rachel McAdams — Mary Jane
• Sarah Paulson — Appropriate
• Amy Ryan — Doubt: A Parable

Actor in a Musical

• Brian d’Arcy James — Days of Wine and Roses
• Jonathan Groff — Merrily We Roll Along
• Eddie Redmayne — Cabaret
• Ricky Ubeda — Illinoise
• Chip Zien — Harmony

Actress in a Musical

• Maleah Joi Moon — Hell’s Kitchen
• Kelli O’Hara — Days of Wine and Roses
• Maryann Plunkett — The Notebook
• Gayle Rankin — Cabaret
• Shaina Taub — Suffs

Featured Actor in a Play

• Will Brill — Stereophonic
• William Jackson Harper — Uncle Vanya
• Michael Imperioli — An Enemy of the People
• Will Keen — Patriots
• Corey Stoll — Appropriate

Featured Actress in a Play

• Francis Benhamou — Prayer for the French Republic
• Juliana Canfield — Stereophonic
• Natalie Gold — Appropriate
• Sarah Pidgeon — Stereophonic
• Kara Young — Purlie Victorious

Featured Actor in a Musical

• Joshua Boone — The Outsiders
• Hugh Coles — Back to the Future: The Musical
• Daniel Radcliffe — Merrily We Roll Along
• Conrad Ricamora — Here Lies Love
• Steven Skybell — Cabaret

Featured Actress in a Musical

• Nikki M. James — Suffs
• Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer — Monty Python’s Spamalot
• Kecia Lewis — Hell’s Kitchen
• Lindsay Mendez — Merrily We Roll Along
• Bebe Neuwirth — Cabaret

Direction of a Play

• Daniel Aukin — Stereophonic
• David Cromer — Prayer for the French Republic
• Sam Gold — An Enemy of the People
• Kenny Leon — Purlie Victorious
• Lila Neugebauer — Appropriate

Direction of a Musical

• Rebecca Frecknall — Cabaret
• Maria Friedman — Merrily We Roll Along
• Justin Peck — Illinoise
• Leigh Silverman — Suffs
• Alex Timbers — Here Lies Love

Book of a Musical

• Days of Wine and Roses — Craig Lucas
• Here Lies Love
• Illinoise — Justin Peck & Jackie Sibblies Drury
• The Outsiders — Justin Levine & Adam Rapp
• Suffs — Shaina Taub

Original Score

• Days of Wine and Roses — Adam Guettel
• Here Lies Love — David Byrne & Fatboy Slim
• The Notebook — Ingrid Michaelson
• Stereophonic — Will Butler
• Suffs — Shaina Taub

"

Skip James for Supporting Actress in a Musical - replace with Iman, Collela Lewis or Bean.

O'Hara over Moon in Leading Actress.

Eli Gelb (Stereophonic) in Supporting Actor of a Play with Brill.

Stereophonic for score.

Updated On: 4/23/24 at 02:24 PM

I think you guys are missing Zoe Kazan for Doubt as Featured Actress in a Play...

Here's my current predictions - likely to change after the reviews of this last slew of shows come out! I listed all my Musical predictions first then my Play predictions. I did not list all the individual names besides actors just for time's sake.

Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water For Elephants

Revival of a Musical
Cabaret
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who's Tommy
The Wiz

Lead Actress in a Musical
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
Shaina Taub, Suffs

Lead Actor in a Musical
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian D'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret
Chip Zien, Harmony

Featured Actress in a Musical
Krystal Joy Brown, Merrily We Roll Along
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Spamalot
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret

Featured Actor in a Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen
Paul Alexander Nolan, Water For Elephants
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell, Cabaret

Original Score
Days of Wine and Roses
The Notebook
The Outsiders
Stereophonic
Suffs

Book of a Musical
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell's Kitchen
The Notebook
The Outsiders
Suffs

Direction of a Musical
Cabaret
Hell's Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Merrily We Roll Along
The Outsiders

Choreography
Cabaret
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
Water For Elephants
The Who's Tommy

Scenic Design of a Musical
Back to the Future
Cabaret
The Great Gatsby
Here Lies Love
Merrily We Roll Along

Costume Design of a Musical
Cabaret
The Great Gatsby
Here Lies Love
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who's Tommy

Lighting Design of a Musical
Back to the Future
Cabaret
The Great Gatsby
Here Lies Love
The Who's Tommy

Sound Design of a Musical
Cabaret
Hell's Kitchen
Merrily We Roll Along
The Outsiders
Suffs

Orchestrations
Days of Wine and Roses
The Great Gatsby
The Notebook
Suffs
The Who's Tommy

Best Play
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mother Play
Patriots
Prayer For the French Republic
Stereophonic

Revival of a Play
Appropriate
Purlie Victorious
Uncle Vanya

Lead Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt

Lead Actor in a Play
Steve Carell, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

Featured Actress in a Play
Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Victoria Pedretti, An Enemy of the People
Sarah Pidegon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

Featured Actor in a Play
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli, An Enemy of the People
Will Keen, Patriots
Jay O. Sanders, Purlie Victorious
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

Direction of a Play
Appropriate
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

Scenic Design of a Play
Appropriate
The Cottage
I Need That
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

Costume Design of a Play
Appropriate
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Prayer for the French Republic
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

Lighting Design of a Play
Appropriate
Doubt
Grey House
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

Sound Design of a Play
Appropriate
Grey House
Patriots
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

Nomination Totals
11 nominations: Cabaret
9 nominations: Merrily We Roll Along, Purlie Victorious, Stereophonic
8 nominations: Appropriate
7 nominations: Suffs
6 nominations: Hell's Kitchen, The Outsiders
5 nominations: Days of Wine and Roses, The Notebook, Patriots, The Who's Tommy
4 nominations: The Great Gatsby, Here Lies Love, Prayer for the French Republic
3 nominations: An Enemy of the People, Mother Play, Water For Elephants
2 nominations: Back to the Future, Doubt, Grey House, Illinoise, Jaja's African Hair Braiding, Uncle Vanya
1 nomination: The Cottage, Harmony, I Need That, Mary Jane, Spamalot, The Wiz
0 nominations: Gutenberg, The Heart of Rock 'n' Roll, How to Dance in Ohio, Lempicka, Once Upon a One More Time, The Shark is Broken​​​​​​​

There is a lot of underestimation of Illinoise, Ricky Ubeda, Ben Cook, book and direction.. That should change Tuesday.

Eli Gelb.

The Days of Wine and Roses, Stereophonic, Here Lies Love etc etc scores are all better and more musically sophisticated than Suffs.

Updated On: 4/20/24 at 11:20 PM

Jeff Tupolski said: "I put five because I use GoldDerby’s prediction center and although they haven’t yet expanded the field to five nominees,they have nine women listed as leads, withAnika Noni Rose rounding out the actresses you mentioned.I thinkRose and Pill’s roles in Uncle Vanya have historically been nominatedin both lead and supporting categories, so I’m not sure if they’ll besubmittedwhere that site currently has them, but I’ll stick with the idea of nine eligible performances for now. If it winds up being just four nominees, then I’d take out McAdams.



I see that Janet McTeer was nominated as Lead Actress Oliviers for playing Yelena in the 90s, so I'll give you that. But I wouldn't necessarily trust the Oliviers on category placement, nor would I trust Gold Derby. I would've thought that Yelena's status as a supporting role is fairly undeniable. Clearly that's not entirely the case, but even so, I'd be really surprised if the Tonys go for that ruling this year.

With a quick search on IBDB, the Lortel Archives, and the Wikipedia pages for those Olivier categories, I can't find a case where Sonya was nominated as a lead -- although my search obviously wasn't exhaustive. I actually think there's a much better case for calling Sonya the female lead of Uncle Vanya compared to Yelena, but i don't see the precedent there.

In any case, I sure hope McAdams isn't the one kicked out if it's only 4 nominees. Maybe a hot take, but for my money she gave the best performance in the category!

do we lock these in now?

Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water For Elephants

ACL2006 said: "do we lockthese in now?

Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water For Elephants"

I think it’s safe to lock in Illinoise and HK and pretty safe to lock in Suffs. I think one of either (or both) Outsiders and WoE could be knocked out by Wine & Roses, HLL, or a surprise nomination for Heart of Rock and Roll, if it manages to get positive reviews that match its very positive word of mouth. It’s been such a weird season, though, so who knows.

Kad said: "ACL2006 said: "do we lockthese in now?

Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water For Elephants"

I think it’s safe to lock in Illinoise and HK and prettysafe to lock in Suffs. I think one of either (or both) Outsiders and WoE could be knocked out by Wine & Roses, HLL, or a surprise nomination for Heart of Rock and Roll, if it manages to get positive reviews that match its very positiveword of mouth. It’s been such a weird season, though, so who knows."

Yeah I feel least sure of Water For Elephants. I think The Outsiders is close to locking in.

After the reviews last night, I think Hell's Kitchen is once again the likely frontrunner.

CathyM3 said: "
Featured Actress in a Musical
Krystal Joy Brown,Merrily We Roll Along
Nikki M. James,Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer,Spamalot
Lindsay Mendez,Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth,Cabaret

Thank you for recognizing Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer! She was phenomenal as the Lady of the Lake. Unfortunately, critics tend to not give awards to comedic roles but this one should be considered!"


It’s a Tony winning role.