2024 Tony Predictions- Page 2

[Kad]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 1:45pm

While it's true that film awards bodies don't tend to award comedic performances very much, the Tonys pretty reliably do!

[KevinKlawitter]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 2:35pm

Kad said: "While it's true that film awards bodies don't tend to award comedic performances very much, the Tonys pretty reliably do!"

This year both Featured Actress categories have comedic performances as their frontrunners,  I'd say.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 2:39pm

TotallyEffed said: "It’s a Tony winning role."

And starting with that, 9 of the last 18 winners in that category have gone to comedic roles. So no, there is no bias against comedic performers in this category.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 2:43pm

I have a question: don't u guys think that being a dance piece hurts the chances of Illinoise winning Best Musical, especially since both ''Suffs'' and ''Hell's Kitchen'' got really great reviews?

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 2:58pm

MadsonMelo said: "I have a question: don't u guys think that being a dance piece hurts the chances of Illinoise winning Best Musical, especially since both ''Suffs'' and ''Hell's Kitchen'' got really great reviews?"

I think that is true. I think Illinoise had the best chance if everything sort of underwhelmed. But better than expected reviews for Suffs and Hell's Kitchen probably puts them as the frontrunners at the moment.

[yyys]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 2:59pm

Yes, also the fact that it is a late entry will probably hurt them. I'd say being nominated will be their best chance.

MadsonMelo said: "I have a question: don't u guys think that being a dance piece hurts the chances of Illinoise winning Best Musical, especially since both ''Suffs'' and ''Hell's Kitchen'' got really great reviews?"

 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/21/24 at 11:56pm

Not to overreact to tonight's reviews, but....do we think there's actually a chance Cabaret could get left out of revival? All the buzz around this production lately is starting to feel a lot less like "we hate the show" and more "we hate everything about the idea of this production" (between the prices, the London overhype, the immersive aspects, that they felt the need to reinvent this show again, etc). And we've seen in the past when that happens with shows, voters won't hesitate to actively keep them from getting nominated in the production categories (think Mockingbird a few years back, for instance).

So, I'm certainly still predicting it gets in at the current moment. But I'd suddenly be much less shocked if we ended up with a lineup of Merrily, Tommy, Spamalot and Gutenberg.

[kurtal]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 12:02am

I still think Cabaret is going to get a revival nomination.  None of the other shows got critical raves, and Spamalot and Gutenberg are closed.  I'd still put my money on Merrily, Cabaret, and Tommy...with the fourth spot being a bit of a wildcard (though I think it'll go to Gutenberg).

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 12:38am

yyys said: "Yes, also the fact that it is a late entry will probably hurt them. I'd say being nominated will be their best chance.

MadsonMelo said: "I have a question: don't u guys think that being a dance piece hurts the chances of Illinoise winning Best Musical, especially since both ''Suffs'' and ''Hell's Kitchen'' got really great reviews?"

No.  "Dance pieces" have won Best Musical … Jerome Robbins Broadway, Fosse, Contact.  Saw all 3 we and were more moved by Ilinoise than the other two ... choreography, direction, vocals, design and a story/book that allows for big feeings that don't use the typical cliche musical theater way to get it done. 

Updated On: 4/22/24 at 12:38 AM

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 1:27am

Broadway61004 said: "Not to overreact to tonight's reviews, but....do we think there's actually a chance Cabaret could get left out of revival? All the buzz around this production lately is starting to feel a lot less like "we hate the show" and more "we hate everything about the idea of this production" (between the prices, the London overhype, the immersive aspects, that they felt the need to reinvent this show again, etc). And we've seen in the past when that happens with shows, voters won't hesitate to actively keep them from getting nominated in the production categories (think Mockingbird a few years back, for instance).

So, I'm certainly still predicting it gets in at the current moment. But I'd suddenly be much less shocked if we ended up with a lineup of Merrily, Tommy, Spamalot and Gutenberg."

Nah, I still think it's very likely/a lock to get nominated. But I think its chances to win went way down.

[BoringBoredBoard40]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 2:52am

I know atleast two nominators that HATED Cabaret 

[Rentaholic2]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 9:33am

It will still get nominated, along with Merrily and Tommy.  I wouldn't be surprised if The Wiz sneaks in.  The reviews weren't quite as terrible as word-of-mouth suggested they would be, and the fact that the show will still be running is a huge factor.  Tony voters seem to quickly forget shows that close, no matter how well received they are.  

It seems like critical response has played an out-sized role this year in clarifying the Tonys race, perhaps because there are so many shows and the public response to many of them has been all over the place.  The prospect of Cabaret toppling Merrily seems to have diminished quite a bit (same for Redmayne potentially upsetting Groff).  Meanwhile, the generally positive reviews for Suffs and Hell's Kitchen seems to be keeping them in the hunt for a Best Musical nomination. 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 10:24am

BoringBoredBoard40 said: "I know atleast two nominators that HATED Cabaret"

This is what I mean. To be clear, I agree with everyone that it is probably going to get nominated. But it does feel like there is a lot of genuine hatred for this production in the NY industry and the whole concept behind it, and we've seen in the past some folks intentionally push shows like that down their ballot (even if they truthfully liked it better than Spamalot, Gutenberg, etc). So will just be interesting to see where this ends up. Could still see it landing 10-12 nominations but could also see it landing 2-3.

[HenryTDobson]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 10:45am

I think Cabaret will still do well with nominations - revival, actor, actress, featured actor, featured actress, set, maybe director? These still seem plausible to me. Other than Bebe, I don't think they will win any. 

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 11:05am

I wonder if Cabaret can still win Set Design and Costume Design.  I thought they had very creative costumes but I felt that it was too over the top and the the Theatre was transformed into basically a nightclub but while pre show set (hallways, etc.) where very interesting, the actual show itself is just basically a bare in the round revolve.  
 

I still believe they have very good chances to win Best Lighting Design and Best Sound Design. But who can win Best Costume Design?  And can Here Lies Love snatch the Best Scenic Design?  I’m starting to think that people are right to think it may end up winning just Best Featured Actress.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 11:15am

Markie27 said: "I wonder if Cabaret can still win Set Design and Costume Design. I thought they had very creative costumes but I felt that it was too over the top and the the Theatre was transformed into basically a nightclub but while pre show set(hallways, etc.) where very interesting, the actual show itself is just basically a bare in the round revolve.


I still believe they have very good chances to win Best Lighting Design and Best Sound Design. But who can win Best Costume Design? And can Here Lies Love snatch the Best Scenic Design? I’m starting to think that people are right to think it may end up winning just Best Featured Actress."

I think Gatsby might still be in the mix for some of the technical awards and Back to the Future for Scenic/Lighting. I think for both those shows (as well as Cabaret), it depends on how much the dislike of the show as a whole trickles down to the technical categories.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 11:21am

Personally, I can’t imagine anything other than “The Outsiders” taking Lighting Design.  

[PipingHotPiccolo]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 12:11pm

All guesswork, but if the nominators track the critics (and they often pointedly do not), i can see Redmayne and certainly Rankin getting snubbed, whereas Neuwirth and Skybell seem to be locks at this point. And it would not be a clear upset, and downright shocking, if it took Best Revival away from Merrily (the reviews for Tommy seemed just as tepid as those for Cabaret...)

[starlightlocamotion]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 1:22pm

So it's starting to look like Hell's Kitchen vs. Illinoise? Suffs will certainly be in the conversation. Hoping for Here Lies Love to get in there ... with other possibilities being OUTSIDERS, W4E, THE NOTEBOOK. 

I do find it fascinating that Hell's Kitchen could possibly win BEST MUSICAL, after the colossal failure of last seasons attempt at a love letter to the city (NY, NY).

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 1:42pm

CoffeeBreak said: "yyys said: "Yes, also the fact that it is a late entry will probably hurt them. I'd say being nominated will be their best chance.

MadsonMelo said: "I have a question: don't u guys think that being a dance piece hurts the chances of Illinoise winning Best Musical, especially since both ''Suffs'' and ''Hell's Kitchen'' got really great reviews?"

No. "Dance pieces" have won Best Musical … Jerome Robbins Broadway, Fosse, Contact.Sawall 3 we and were more moved by Ilinoise than the other two ... choreography, direction, vocals, designanda story/bookthat allows for bigfeeings that don't usethe typical cliche musical theater way to get it done."

My question was, actually, because of ''Contact''.

Which won decades ago and sparkled so much controversy that they created Best Theatrical Event next year.

That's why I think ''Illinoise'' can suffer the bias.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 2:00pm

If Illinoise is so beloved, though, and if there’s no consensus among voters, it can still pull ahead. It’s a show that could easily tour, and if marketed well, it could draw a lot of fans of the album and of dance to the show. It’s a show that is competitive in several categories, including choreography, lighting and sound design, and orchestrations. I can see this getting just as many if not more nominations than other top contenders. I think there was a lot of backlash with Contact because there wasn’t any live music, which isn’t the case here: the live music is heavily featured and the basis of the storytelling.

[rburton66]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 4:30pm

I posted my predictions in another thread, but here they are with some updates.

BEST MUSICAL
Hell’s Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
Cabaret
Gutenberg! The Musical!
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who’s Tommy

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Cabaret, Eddie Redmayne
Days of Wine and Roses, Brian d’Arcy James
Harmony, Chip Zien
Merrily We Roll Along, Jonathan Groff
The Outsiders, Brody Grant

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Cabaret, Gayle Rankin
Days of Wine and Roses, Kelli O’Hara
Hell’s Kitchen, Maleah Joi Moon
Lempicka, Eden Espinosa
Suffs, Shaina Taub

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
Hell’s Kitchen, Brandon Victor Dixon
Here Lies Love, Conrad Ricamora
Merrily We Roll Along, Daniel Radcliffe
The Outsiders, Joshua Boone
The Outsiders, Brent Comer

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
Cabaret, Bebe Neuwirth
Merrily We Roll Along, Lindsay Mendez
Monty Python’s Spamalot, Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer
The Outsiders, Emma Pittman
Suffs, Nikki M. James

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
Hell’s Kitchen, Michael Greif
Here Lies Love, Alex Timbers
Illinoise, Justin Peck
Merrily We Roll Along, Maria Friedman
Suffs, Leigh Silverman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Days of Wine and Roses
Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Stereophonic
Suffs

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Lempicka
The Outsiders
Suffs

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
Cabaret
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
Days of Wine and Roses
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
Merrily We Roll Along
Suffs

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Cabaret
The Great Gatsby
Here Lies Love
Water for Elephants
The Wiz

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Cabaret
Lempicka
Merrily We Roll Along
Suffs
The Wiz

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Hell’s Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Water for Elephants

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL
Back to the Future
Hell’s Kitchen
Here Lies Love
Merrily We Roll Along
The Outsiders

 

BEST PLAY
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
Mother Play
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
Appropriate
Doubt
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY
Doubt, Liev Schreiber
An Enemy of the People, Jeremy Strong
Patriots, Michael Stuhlbarg
Purlie Victorious, Leslie Odom Jr.

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Appropriate, Sarah Paulson
Doubt, Amy Ryan
Mary Jane, Rachel McAdams
Mother Play, Jessica Lange

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
Appropriate, Corey Stoll
Patriots, Will Keen
The Shark Is Broken, Alex Brightman
Stereophonic, Will Brill
Uncle Vanya, William Jackson Harper

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
Doubt, Zoe Kazan
Mother Play, Celia Keenan-Bolger
Prayer for the French Republic, Francis Benhamou
Purlie Victorious, Kara Young
Stereophonic, Sarah Pidgeon

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
Appropriate, Lila Neugebauer
An Enemy of the People, Sam Gold
Prayer for the French Republic, David Cromer
Purlie Victorious, Kenny Leon
Stereophonic, Daniel Aukin

BEST SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY
Doubt
Grey House
Patriots
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

BEST COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
The Cottage
An Enemy of the People
Mother Play
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

BEST LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Patriots
Purlie Victorious
Stereophonic

BEST SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY
Appropriate
Patriots
Purlie Victorious
The Shark Is Broken
Stereophonic

[yyys]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 4:34pm

^^ Did you see The Notebook?  I"m predicting it will get a Best Orchestrations nomination.

[Ensemble1713124420]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 7:00pm

I think these look great overall but if Lempicka gets a nomination for Best Book I may never pay attention to the Tony’s again. Had a great time at that show but the book is a MESS. 

[amiyagi]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 7:34pm

Ensemble1713124420 said: "I think these look great overall but if Lempicka gets a nomination for Best Book I may never pay attention to the Tony’s again. Had a great time at that show but the book is a MESS."

They nominated NY NY last year and that book was atrocious.