2024 Tony Predictions- Page 4

[DaveyG]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:58pm

BETTY22 said: "Best Score

Days of Wine and Roses

Harmony

Suffs

Here Lies Love

Water for Elephants"

I hope Stereophonic gets a score nomination. Those songs are wonderful. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 3:10pm

TotallyEffed said: "I predict Eden will be nominated."

I feel like she still has to be, but she's also not on my list right now. I have Kelli, Gayle, Maleah, Maryanne, and Shaina right now. I guess maybe Eden knocks out Shaina, but Suffs was just SOOO much better received than Lempicka... 

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 3:14pm

jkcohen626 said: "TotallyEffed said: "I predict Eden will be nominated."

I feel like she still has to be, but she's also not on my list right now. I have Kelli, Gayle, Maleah, Maryanne, and Shaina right now. I guess maybe Eden knocks out Shaina, but Suffs was just SOOO much better received than Lempicka..."

I mean, of those names, I think Gayle is the weak link and obvious out regardless of the role.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 3:39pm

Shaina is in because she wrote the show.  As actress & singer she is the weakest of the group, even after Gayle.

[BroadwayFanatic454]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 6:15pm

DELETE- REPEAT!

Updated On: 4/25/24 at 06:15 PM

[BSKY]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 8:56pm

Does ‘Here Lies Love’ have a book?  I’ve seen it listed in people’s predictions for a nom, but I don’t see a book writer listed on their website.  What am I missing?

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 9:41pm

BSKY said: "Does ‘Here Lies Love’ have a book? I’ve seen itlisted in people’s predictions for a nom, but I don’t see a book writer listed on their website. What am I missing?"

Well, it has a dramatic structure and even interpolated transcripts and news reports from what I can recall. It's not a book in the traditional sense, but it's a book. The work is credited as "developed by Alex Timbers," so I imagine he is the one who is responsible, or is taking responsibility, for the dramaturgy of the piece. I imagine if it did get nominated in the category, he and David Byrne, who has the sole credit for the concept, would split the nomination. I'm doubtful it would get nominated in this category, however.

Updated On: 4/25/24 at 09:41 PM

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 9:54pm

I’m not sure it’s eligible since there’s no credited bookwriter and the Tony eligibility meeting didn’t specify anything about the book, meaning it will go by opening night credits.

[starlightlocamotion]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 12:01am

At this point … is there anything that could plausibly beat ILLINOISE for the tony? … I so wish that HLL had opened in the spring :( 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 1:38am

chrishuyen said: "I've seen a lot of good notices for Steven Skybell both on the boards and in reviews, but he never seems to be as notable in the role as Bebe in hers, is that just due to their respective levels of fame or is it actually that he doesn't seem to have as lauded of a performance? Right now I'm leaning Daniel Radcliffe for Featured Actor and Bebe Neuwirth for Featured Actress but I do think things could flip either way leading up to the Tonys.

"

I was gonna write ''Skybell?'' after ''who is his competition?'' but my thoughts are the same. He received a lot of praise, but Bebe got more, or somehow she seems to overshadowed him.

I would say that, yes, Skybell maybe win, but he doesn't win without Bebe and unless the Tonys really loves ''Cabaret'', they won't give 2 acting wins and Bebe will always be first.

I think it's Daniel and Bebe, as of now.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 1:41am

starlightlocamotion said: "At this point … is there anything that could plausibly beat ILLINOISE for the tony? … I so wish that HLL had opened in the spring :("

I still think Suffs and Hell's Kitchen can take this prize, the jukebox one if obviously more hard to get, but Suffs got great reviews, written by a woman (that also stars) with people like Malala e Clinton as producers and also very topic subject can sure be a winner.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 1:52am

Updated On: 4/26/24 at 01:52 AM

[uncageg]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 1:58am

For some reason, I feel an upset and seeing Chip Zien taking the Tony for Best Actor in a Musical. 

[FLarnhill]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 2:43am

MadsonMelo said: "I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really likePatriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''."

Exactly. Look at Bryan Cranston after Breaking Bad. Cranston got to win the Tony due to a combination of Breaking Bad still being fresh in the voters' minds and his play was also a hit. I can see likewise happening for Strong.

If Stuhlbarg wins for doing the "most" acting, then it's gonna be a repeat of Jodie Comer winning over Jessica Chastain and nobody wants that to happen again. No offense to Stuhlbarg but he's been better before.

Updated On: 4/26/24 at 02:43 AM

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 3:02am

FLarnhill said: "MadsonMelo said: "I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really likePatriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''."

Exactly. Look at Bryan Cranston after Breaking Bad. Cranston got to win the Tony due to a combination of Breaking Bad still being fresh in the voters' minds and his play was also a hit. I can see likewise happening for Strong.

If Stuhlbarg wins for doing the "most" acting, then it's gonna be a repeat of Jodie Comer winning over Jessica Chastain and nobody wants that to happen again. No offense to Stuhlbarg but he's been better before."


There was no world where Chastain was ever winning over Comer and most of us definitely wanted it that way.

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 4:55am

TotallyEffed said: "FLarnhill said: "MadsonMelo said: "I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really likePatriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''."

Exactly. Look at Bryan Cranston after Breaking Bad. Cranston got to win the Tony due to a combination of Breaking Bad still being fresh in the voters' minds and his play was also a hit. I can see likewise happening for Strong.

If Stuhlbarg wins for doing the "most" acting, then it's gonna be a repeat of Jodie Comer winning over Jessica Chastain and nobody wants that to happen again. No offense to Stuhlbarg but he's been better before."


There was no world where Chastain was ever winning over Comer and most of us definitely wanted it that way."

I don’t understand as well.  “Nobody” wants that to happen again?!?! Jodie Comer was lauded even before she set foot on Broadway.  A lot of people who have watched her in London and at the movies via National Theater I believe thought that the Tony should have already etched her name in that award.  And as soon as New Yorkers watched her here she got universal acclaim.  Based on what I’ve read here almost everyone wanted her and predicted her winning.  I loved Chastain’s performance in a doll’s house but my god what Jodie Cramer did on that stage was nothing short of a master class in acting.

[FLarnhill]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 9:23am

Markie27 said: "TotallyEffed said: "FLarnhill said: "MadsonMelo said: "I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really likePatriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''."

Exactly. Look at Bryan Cranston after Breaking Bad. Cranston got to win the Tony due to a combination of Breaking Bad still being fresh in the voters' minds and his play was also a hit. I can see likewise happening for Strong.

If Stuhlbarg wins for doing the "most" acting, then it's gonna be a repeat of Jodie Comer winning over Jessica Chastain and nobody wants that to happen again. No offense to Stuhlbarg but he's been better before."


There was no world where Chastain was ever winning over Comer and most of us definitely wanted it that way."

I don’t understand as well. “Nobody” wants that to happen again?!?! Jodie Comer was lauded even before she set foot on Broadway. A lot of people who have watched her in London and at the movies via National Theater I believe thought that the Tony should have already etched her name in that award. And as soon as New Yorkers watched her here she got universal acclaim. Based on what I’ve read here almost everyone wanted her and predicted her winning. I loved Chastain’s performance in a doll’s house but my god what Jodie Cramer did on that stage was nothing short of a master class in acting."

What Chastain did was a master class in acting. Subtle, unique, not reliant on costume changes, props, or moving around. It's one of those performances that really is far more powerful by seemingly doing less. Comer was overacting every single emotion and never came across as a real human being. The source material didn't help her tbf but she didn't elevate it. If I wanted to see that kind of acting, I'd go watch a soap opera. And don't forget, Chastain won a lot of awards, too. It's just her and Comer were placed in different categories, so effectively, either of them could have won that night and I feel they chose wrong and were more influenced by other qualities that Comer had than her so-called talent: her superficial "beauty" over Chastain (which is very subjective but people believe Comer's better looking), her being younger because it's an ageist community, and Comer riding high off a very popular tv show (Cranston and Strong didn't need that to prove their worth).

Going back to Strong, there are so many moments he could have hammed it up and yelled a lot but his restraint and composure gives a lot more power than if he did the exact opposite, just like Chastain. People expect stage acting to be all about yelling and mugging when Strong and Chastain are there trying to prove the contrary. 

Updated On: 4/26/24 at 09:23 AM

[blasvader]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 9:31am

FLarnhill said: "Markie27 said: "TotallyEffed said: "FLarnhill said: "MadsonMelo said: "I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really likePatriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''."

Exactly. Look at Bryan Cranston after Breaking Bad. Cranston got to win the Tony due to a combination of Breaking Bad still being fresh in the voters' minds and his play was also a hit. I can see likewise happening for Strong.

If Stuhlbarg wins for doing the "most" acting, then it's gonna be a repeat of Jodie Comer winning over Jessica Chastain and nobody wants that to happen again. No offense to Stuhlbarg but he's been better before."


There was no world where Chastain was ever winning over Comer and most of us definitely wanted it that way."

I don’t understand as well. “Nobody” wants that to happen again?!?! Jodie Comer was lauded even before she set foot on Broadway. A lot of people who have watched her in London and at the movies via National Theater I believe thought that the Tony should have already etched her name in that award. And as soon as New Yorkers watched her here she got universal acclaim. Based on what I’ve read here almost everyone wanted her and predicted her winning. I loved Chastain’s performance in a doll’s house but my god what Jodie Cramer did on that stage was nothing short of a master class in acting."

What Chastain did was a master class in acting. Subtle, unique, not reliant on costume changes, props, or moving around. It's one of those performances that really is far more powerful by seemingly doing less. Comer was overacting every single emotion and never came across as a real human being. The source material didn't help her tbf but she didn't elevate it. If I wanted to see that kind of acting, I'd go watch a soap opera. And don't forget, Chastain won a lot of awards, too. It's just her and Comer were placed in different categories, so effectively, either of them could have won that night and I feel they chose wrong and were more influenced by other qualities that Comer had than her so-called talent: her superficial "beauty" over Chastain (which is very subjective but people believe Comer's better looking), her being younger because it's an ageist community, and Comer riding high off a very popular tv show (Cranston and Strong didn't need that to prove their worth).

Going back to Strong, there are so many moments he could have hammed it up and yelled a lot but his restraint and composure gives a lot more power than if he did the exact opposite, just like Chastain. People expect stage acting to be all about yelling and mugging when Strong and Chastain are there trying to prove the contrary."

Is there a single post mentioning Jodie Comer which you haven't followed up with a rant about her and an ass-kiss for Strong? 

 

[sinister teashop]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 9:44am

It might have been from where I was sitting or that I saw it early in the run but I was not impressed with Jeremy Strong’s performance. I did not see a convincing through line in it to dramatize why he was doing what he was doing. Aside from stripping to his waist near the end (which was quite nice) I also did not feel he had a compelling stage presence. He was fine in my opinion but nothing beyond that. I did see Strong in "New Jerusalem"  where I thought he was excellent. I much preferred Carell in Vanya, a good performance of a role that was a good fit for the actor. But then I’ve never understood the psychology behind the Tonys. Last year they gave best actor to the sledgehammer look-at-me performance of Sean Hayes. Still, I would be happy to see Strong in another stage production so if that takes throwing an award at him then please do.

Updated On: 4/26/24 at 09:44 AM

[BJR]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 12:41pm

Being in a hit goes a long way with the Tonys. And Comer was (also) in a hit. As was Hayes.

I think it's Strong's to lose for that reason. Far less likely it wins for Play revival (prob Appropriate), so they'll like giving that hit show an award for Strong.

[saxpower]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 1:52pm

A question/thought about Illinoise winning best musical

I remember in past years' (post-nomination) predictions as to who/what would win various award, it was noted Tony voters sometimes take the"business of Broadway" into consideration- in other words, they may (consciously or not) be more likely to vote for a result which they perceive will result in better overall grosses. 

If that's the case, would voters want to award "best musical" to a show that kind of snuck in at the last moment and will be closed by Labor Day and is unlikely to extend?  A best musical Tony is likely to give a show at least some sales boost, and the voters may want give the boost to a show which plans/hopes to stick around a little longer.  (Arguably, the same argument may make voters hesitant to give Merrily a clean sweep in the acting catergories it's nominated in, though the sentimentality around Merrily may affect this). 

To be clear- I have not seen Illinoise and can't comment on its merits.  I'm also not saying what should happen from a merit standpoint- just noting sometimes other factors means another result will happen. 

[starlightlocamotion]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 2:10pm

If ILLINOISE were to take best musical and sales were still strong ... I could see it moving to a smaller house post labor day. 

[Chesan]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 2:21pm

Does anybody know whether the Tony Committee will announce the remaining eligibility decisions today?  I assume they'll announce those determinations before they reveal the nominations but is there a chance they won't?

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 2:25pm

FLarnhill said: "...Comer had than her so-called talent: her superficial "beauty" over Chastain (which is very subjective but people believe Comer's better looking), her being younger because it's an ageist community, and Comer riding high off a very popular tv show (Cranston and Strong didn't need that to prove their worth)."

 

One of the most unhinged things I've ever read on this board, which is quite an accomplishment. Congrats!

 

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/26/24 at 8:50pm

FINAL TALLY OF ALL MUSICAL REVIEWS


RAVE

Merrily We Roll Along       11        0        0

Illinoise                                11        1        0

Tommy                                11        1        1

Hell’s Kitchen                     10        3        0


VERY GOOD

Days of Wine and Roses    9        2        0

Water for Elephants            9        4        1

Here Lies Love                      8        4        1

Suffs                                       8        5        0

Spamalot                              8        2        1


GOOD / MIXED

How to Dance in Ohio        6        6        0

The Wiz                                  6        4        2

Heart of Rock & Roll            5        3        1

Harmony                              5        6        3

Once Upon a One…            5        4        5

The Outsiders                      4        9        1

Gutenberg!                          4        6        3

Cabaret                                4        6        4

Back to the Future              4        5        7

The Notebook                      3        5        2


PANNED

Lempicka                              2        5        4

Great Gatsby                        1        5        3

 

 

Updated On: 4/26/24 at 08:50 PM