2024 Tony Predictions- Page 3

[kurtal]

Posted: 4/22/24 at 8:19pm

I'm still trying to think through my actual predictions, but here's who *I'd* nominate in each category (in descending order of preference).  I absolutely do not think that this will align with the actual nominations.  (I've seen everything except The Wiz and Mary Jane, so I'm not going to include those at all)

Play

Stereophonic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Patriots
Grey House
Prayer for the French Republic

Musical

Illinoise
The Outsiders
Here Lies Love
The Heart of Rock and Roll
Hell's Kitchen

Play Revival

Appropriate
Purlie Victorious
An Enemy of the People

Musical Revival

Merrily We Roll Along
Gutenberg!
The Who's Tommy
Cabaret

Leading Actor Play

Jeremy Strong - An Enemy of the People
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Purlie Victorious
Michael Stuhlbarg - Patriots
Steve Carell - Uncle Vanya

Leading Actress Play

Sarah Paulson - Appropriate
Betsy Aidem - Prayer for the French Republic
Laurie Metcalf - Grey House
Laura Bell Bundy - The Cottage

Leading Actor Musical

Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
Brody Grant - The Outsiders
Brian D'Arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
Ali Louis Bourzgui - The Who's Tommy
Taran Killam - Spamalot

Leading Actress Musical

Maryann Plunkett - The Notebook
Gayle Rankin - Cabaret
Maleah Joi Moon - Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara - Days of Wine and Roses
Arielle Jacobs - Here LIes Love

Featured Actor Play

Eli Gelb - Stereophonic
William Jackson Harper - Uncle Vanya
Will Brill - Stereophonic
Alex Moffat - The Cottage
Michael Esper - Appropriate

Featured Actress Play

Francis Benhamou - Prayer for the French Republic
Sarah Pidgeon - Stereophonic
Victoria Pedretti - An Enemy of the People
Kara Young - Purlie Victorious
Zenzi Williams - Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Featured Actor Musical

Conrad Ricamora - Here Lies Love
Ricky Ubeda - Illinoise
Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
Brandon Victor Dixon - Hell's Kitchen
Ethan Slater - Spamalot

Featured Actress Musical

Kecia Lewis - Hell's Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez - Merrily We Roll Along
Jennifer Simard - Once Upon a One More Time
Amber Iman - Lempicka
Tamika Lawrence - The Heart of Rock and Roll

Direction Play

Lila Neugebauer - Appropriate
Daniel Aukin - Stereophonic
Kenny Leon - Purlie Victorious
Whitney White - Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Sam Gold - An Enemy of the People

Direction Musical

Danya Taymor - The Outsiders
Alex Timbers - Here Lies Love
Maria Friedman - Merrily We Roll Along
Justin Peck - Illinoise
Michael Greig & Schele Williams - The Notebook

Book

Suffs
The Outsiders
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
The Heart of Rock and Roll

Score

Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Stereophonic
Suffs
The Notebook

Scenic Design Play

Stereophonic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Grey House
The Cottage
Appropriate

Scenic Design Musical

Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Days of Wine and Roses
Back to the Future
Cabaret

Costume Design Play

Stereophonic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious
Prayer for the French Republic

Costume Design Musical

Here Lies Love
Hell's Kitchen
Cabaret
The Great Gatsby
Spamalot

Lighting Design Play

Appropriate
Mother Play
Grey House
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic

Lighting Design Musical

The Outsiders
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
Back to the Future
The Who's Tommy

Sound Design Play

Stereophonic
Grey House
Appropriate
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic

Sound Design Musical

The Outsiders
Illinoise
Here Lies Love
Back to the Future
Harmony

Choreography

Illinoise
The Outsiders
Hell's Kitchen
Cabaret
Once Upon a One More Time

Orchestrations

Illinoise
Cabaret
The Who's Tommy
The Outsiders
Hell's Kitchen

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/23/24 at 12:07am

I thought the book of Illinoise was magnificent.  it may seem simplistic weaving stories from a concept album to an urban campfire setting.  I have listened to the album and it was very difficult to incorporate all songs from the album into one coherent show but in my opinion the books succeeded in offering us an emotional roller coaster ride in movement and dance alone.  Stories about a serial killer, then Superman’s mortality, zombies - all disjointed songs all brought together by said campfire storytelling that ultimately was a build up to the main heart of the show - the Heart wrenching story of Ricky Ubeda’s character Henry.  It’s quite an amazing feat if you think that the whole show was about the beautiful power of storytelling but was creatively expressed through dance.  

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/23/24 at 1:06am

Markie27 said: "I thought the book of Illinoise was magnificent. it may seem simplistic weaving stories from a concept album to an urban campfire setting. Ihave listened to the album and it was very difficult to incorporate all songs from the album into one coherent show but in my opinion the books succeeded in offering us an emotional roller coaster ride in movement and dance alone. Stories about a serial killer, then Superman’s mortality, zombies - all disjointed songs all brought together by said campfire storytelling that ultimately was a build up to the main heart of the show - the Heart wrenching story of Ricky Ubeda’s character Henry. It’s quite an amazing feat if you think that the whole show was about the beautiful powerof storytelling but was creatively expressedthrough dance."

Yes.  It's the most difficult book to create and make work. It's a unique, creative and compelling work that somehow creates emotions that the other basic musicals can't come close to.  It's the Best Musical of the year.

Updated On: 4/23/24 at 01:06 AM

[PipingHotPiccolo]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:00am

My guesses (without benefit of Gatsby, Mother Play reviews)

Play: Stereophonics, French Republic, JaJa, Patriots

Musical: Suffs, Hells Kitchen, Outsiders, Illinoise, Wine/Roses

Play Revival: Appropriate, Enemy of the People, Purlie, Mary Jane, Doubt

Musical Revival: Merrily, Cabaret, Tommy, Spamalot, Gutenberg

Actor Play: Leslie Odom, Jeremy Strong, Michael Stuhlbarg, Liev Schreiber

Actress Play: Jessica Lange, Rachael McAdams, Sarah Paulson, Betsy Aidem, Amy Ryan

S Actor Play: Will Keen, William Harper Jackson, Corey Stoll, Will Brill, Billy Eugene Jones

S Actress Play: Kara Young, Sarah Pidgeon, Francis Benhamou, Allison Pill, Lakisha May

Actor Musical: Groff, BDJ, Brody Grant, Chip Zien, Dorian Harewood, Ali Louis Bourzghi

Actress Musical: Kelli O'Hara, Shaina Taub, Eden Espinosa, Ariella Jacobs, Maleah Joi Moon, Maryann Plunkett

S Actor Musical: Radcliffe, Skybell, Paul Alexander Nolan, George Abud, Joshua Boone, Wayne Brady or Philip Johnson Richardson

S Actress Musical: Lindsay Mendez, Leslie Kritzer, Bebe, Kecia Lewis, Nikki James, Jenn Collela. 

 

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:39am

Actor Musical: Will Keen, +Eli Gelb, Corey Stoll, Will Brill, William Harper Jackson

Actor Musical: Groff, BDJ, Brody Grant,+Ricky Ubeda, Chip Zien, Dorian Harewood, Ali Louis Bourzghi

S Actor Musical: Radcliffe, Skybell, Paul Alexander Nolan, Ben Cook, Joshua Boone.

S Actress Musical: Lindsay Mendez, Leslie Kritzer, Bebe, Kecia Lewis, Amber Iman, Jenn Collela. 

 

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 9:24am

With Eden’s several missed performances since opening, will enough nominators have seen her for her to make the cut? I hope she gets a nomination, especially since who knows what her career is going to look like after this thing closes. I genuinely feel bad for her. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 11:40am

Nominators are rescheduled if a main performer is out for their ticketed show. There is no way the producers would allow them to come while Eden is out. And unless they have a conflict, most of the nominators see each production during the press period. Any recent absences will have no effect on whether she receives a nomination or not.

I do think one of the favorites in Lead Actress will be snubbed though. Maybe Eden. Maybe Gayle. There's just so many potentials there. Kelli O'Hara, Maleah Joi Moon, Maryann Plunkett, Shaina Taub, Eden Espinosa, Nichelle Lewis, Gayle Rankin...unless there's a tie, two of those women are being left out.

[broadway86]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 11:55am

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I do think one of the favorites in Lead Actress will be snubbed though. Maybe Eden. Maybe Gayle."

With most reviews singling Gayle out as a weak spot, I get the impression she'll be left out.

[SidebySidebyLogan]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:38pm

What are the chances Taub is nominated for book/score but misses out on actress? Haven’t seen it yet but from what I’ve heard her performance is good but in a crowded year good might not cut it. Especially, if they have two other chances to award her.

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:41pm

I feel like Eden has a great deal of industry support and goodwill behind her to prevent a snub. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:46pm

I know we don't even have the nominations yet, but some awards feels very certain to me.

Best Play - Stereophonic

Best Actor in a Play - Jeremy Strong

Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Daniel Radcliffe (what is his competition??)

Best Choreography - Illinoise

One category that for me is blank is Featured Actor in a Play. I though Will Keem would get but the reception for Patriots was so lukewarm that I don't know anymore. William Jackson Harper? Will Brill?

Updated On: 4/25/24 at 12:46 PM

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:51pm

Lead actor in a play is a two-horse race between Strong and Leslie Odom Jr., and with the proshot of Purlie Victorious premiering on PBS in a month, I don't think there'll be as much recency bias in play as last year (Henderson vs. Hayes).

Odom has won a Tony before though (and relatively recently, in 2016), which may flip the pendulum in Strong's direction. 

Updated On: 4/25/24 at 12:51 PM

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 12:56pm

I'm predicting Eden to miss. Not because of the missed performances but because I think Lempicka gets blanked entirely. Sort of like Carolee Carmello in Bad Cinderella last year. Even a well liked performer won't get in for a show that I don't think will get anything.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 1:03pm

Predict Iman gets nominated for the largest supporting roles of the season, handled well.

Updated On: 4/25/24 at 01:03 PM

[TotallyEffed]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 1:09pm

I predict Eden will be nominated.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 1:25pm

MadsonMelo said: "I know we don't even have the nominations yet, but some awards feels very certain to me.

Best Play - Stereophonic

Best Actor in a Play - Jeremy Strong

Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Daniel Radcliffe (what is his competition??)

Best Choreography - Illinoise

One category that for me is blank is Actor in a Play. I though Will Keem would get but the reception for Patriots was so lukewarm that I don't know anymore. William Jackson Harper? Will Brill?"

The weird thing about Featured Actor in a Play is it feels like one of the more competitive fields for the nomination, but none of the top contenders feel like they check the usual boxes for a winner.

Keen seems to fit that mold the best, but like you said, he may be held back by a show that people are otherwise not too passionate about.

I had him just outside my top five before, but I’m starting to feel like Eli Gelb may take it. I thought his work might be seen as too light earlier, but everyone seems really taken with this performance and character. I’d be happy to see things go that way, he’d be a great winner.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 1:26pm

EDSOSLO858 said: "Lead actor in a play is a two-horse race between Strong and Leslie Odom Jr., and with the proshot ofPurlie Victoriouspremiering on PBS in amonth, I don't think there'll be as much recency bias in play as last year (Henderson vs. Hayes).

Odom has won a Tony before though (and relatively recently, in 2016), which may flip the pendulum in Strong's direction."

It's between Strong and Stuhlbarg.  Odom only wins if Strong and Stuhlbarg split the vote enough for Odom to squeeze between.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 1:45pm

Lead Actor in a Play is definitely not a done deal for Strong. I think Stuhlbarg has by far the most physical performance of the bunch. And he does the MOST acting. I think he has the edge. Probably the one win for Patriots.

 

Featured Actor in a Play is totally up for grabs. One of the Stereophonic guys maybe? Or Corey Stoll, given the strength of Appropriate

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 1:50pm

I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really like Patriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''.

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:14pm

MadsonMelo said: "Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Daniel Radcliffe (what is his competition??)"

I agree that the Tony is likely Daniel's to lose. But I'd say his biggest competition is Steven Skybell in Cabaret. His performance is stunning and he, along with Bebe, was one of the few sources of near-universal praise amongst the mixed reviews by the critics last weekend.

At the moment, I still think Daniel and Lindsay both win Featured Actor and Actress, but I could see a universe in which Bebe and/or Steven swoop in for one or both.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:34pm

I've seen a lot of good notices for Steven Skybell both on the boards and in reviews, but he never seems to be as notable in the role as Bebe in hers, is that just due to their respective levels of fame or is it actually that he doesn't seem to have as lauded of a performance?  Right now I'm leaning Daniel Radcliffe for Featured Actor and Bebe Neuwirth for Featured Actress but I do think things could flip either way leading up to the Tonys.

My current guesses for nominations:

Best Musical

• Days of Wine and Roses
• Suffs
• Illinoise
• The Outsiders
• Water for Elephants (or Hell's Kitchen)

Best Play

• Stereophonic
• Mother Play
• Prayer for the French Republic
• Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
• Mary Jane

Best Score

• Days of Wine and Roses
• Harmony
• Suffs
• Stereophonic
• Here Lies Love or Lempicka maybe? (could also see Notebook or Outsiders or Water for Elephants taking this slot too)

[All So Ozmopolitan]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:36pm

Unlike previous years, Best Featured Actor in a Play is one of the most exciting races for me this season. My picks are William Jackson Harper (Uncle Vanya), Will Brill (Stereophonic), Eli Gelb (Stereophonic), Will Keen (Patriots), and Corey Stoll (Appropriate). I believe they are each equally deserving of the win. 

[Kad]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:46pm

Featured Actor in a Play seems like a great category for a pickup for Stereophonic, a highly beloved production that, by virtue of being an ensemble piece, can't really dominate the acting categories.

[BETTY22]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:46pm

Best Score

Days of Wine and Roses

Harmony

Suffs

Here Lies Love

Water for Elephants 

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 4/25/24 at 2:48pm

Stuhlbarg is doing the most acting, but there’s more love for Strong and Odom’s performances and overall productions. I really don’t see him passing those two. My money’s on Strong.