2024 Tony Predictions — Page 3

I'm still trying to think through my actual predictions, but here's who *I'd* nominate in each category (in descending order of preference). I absolutely do not think that this will align with the actual nominations. (I've seen everything except The Wiz and Mary Jane, so I'm not going to include those at all)

Play

Stereophonic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Patriots
Grey House
Prayer for the French Republic

Musical

Illinoise
The Outsiders
Here Lies Love
The Heart of Rock and Roll
Hell's Kitchen

Play Revival

Appropriate
Purlie Victorious
An Enemy of the People

Musical Revival

Merrily We Roll Along
Gutenberg!
The Who's Tommy
Cabaret

Leading Actor Play

Jeremy Strong - An Enemy of the People
Leslie Odom, Jr. - Purlie Victorious
Michael Stuhlbarg - Patriots
Steve Carell - Uncle Vanya

Leading Actress Play

Sarah Paulson - Appropriate
Betsy Aidem - Prayer for the French Republic
Laurie Metcalf - Grey House
Laura Bell Bundy - The Cottage

Leading Actor Musical

Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
Brody Grant - The Outsiders
Brian D'Arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
Ali Louis Bourzgui - The Who's Tommy
Taran Killam - Spamalot

Leading Actress Musical

Maryann Plunkett - The Notebook
Gayle Rankin - Cabaret
Maleah Joi Moon - Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara - Days of Wine and Roses
Arielle Jacobs - Here LIes Love

Featured Actor Play

Eli Gelb - Stereophonic
William Jackson Harper - Uncle Vanya
Will Brill - Stereophonic
Alex Moffat - The Cottage
Michael Esper - Appropriate

Featured Actress Play

Francis Benhamou - Prayer for the French Republic
Sarah Pidgeon - Stereophonic
Victoria Pedretti - An Enemy of the People
Kara Young - Purlie Victorious
Zenzi Williams - Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Featured Actor Musical

Conrad Ricamora - Here Lies Love
Ricky Ubeda - Illinoise
Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
Brandon Victor Dixon - Hell's Kitchen
Ethan Slater - Spamalot

Featured Actress Musical

Kecia Lewis - Hell's Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez - Merrily We Roll Along
Jennifer Simard - Once Upon a One More Time
Amber Iman - Lempicka
Tamika Lawrence - The Heart of Rock and Roll

Direction Play

Lila Neugebauer - Appropriate
Daniel Aukin - Stereophonic
Kenny Leon - Purlie Victorious
Whitney White - Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Sam Gold - An Enemy of the People

Direction Musical

Danya Taymor - The Outsiders
Alex Timbers - Here Lies Love
Maria Friedman - Merrily We Roll Along
Justin Peck - Illinoise
Michael Greig & Schele Williams - The Notebook

Book

Suffs
The Outsiders
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
The Heart of Rock and Roll

Score

Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Stereophonic
Suffs
The Notebook

Scenic Design Play

Stereophonic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Grey House
The Cottage
Appropriate

Scenic Design Musical

Here Lies Love
The Outsiders
Days of Wine and Roses
Back to the Future
Cabaret

Costume Design Play

Stereophonic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious
Prayer for the French Republic

Costume Design Musical

Here Lies Love
Hell's Kitchen
Cabaret
The Great Gatsby
Spamalot

Lighting Design Play

Appropriate
Mother Play
Grey House
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic

Lighting Design Musical

The Outsiders
Here Lies Love
Illinoise
Back to the Future
The Who's Tommy

Sound Design Play

Stereophonic
Grey House
Appropriate
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic

Sound Design Musical

The Outsiders
Illinoise
Here Lies Love
Back to the Future
Harmony

Choreography

Illinoise
The Outsiders
Hell's Kitchen
Cabaret
Once Upon a One More Time

Orchestrations

Illinoise
Cabaret
The Who's Tommy
The Outsiders
Hell's Kitchen

Markie27 said: "I thought the book of Illinoise was magnificent. it may seem simplistic weaving stories from a concept album to an urban campfire setting. Ihave listened to the album and it was very difficult to incorporate all songs from the album into one coherent show but in my opinion the books succeeded in offering us an emotional roller coaster ride in movement and dance alone. Stories about a serial killer, then Superman’s mortality, zombies - all disjointed songs all brought together by said campfire storytelling that ultimately was a build up to the main heart of the show - the Heart wrenching story of Ricky Ubeda’s character Henry. It’s quite an amazing feat if you think that the whole show was about the beautiful powerof storytelling but was creatively expressedthrough dance."

Yes. It's the most difficult book to create and make work. It's a unique, creative and compelling work that somehow creates emotions that the other basic musicals can't come close to. It's the Best Musical of the year.

Updated On: 4/23/24 at 01:06 AM

Actor Musical: Will Keen, +Eli Gelb, Corey Stoll, Will Brill, William Harper Jackson

Actor Musical: Groff, BDJ, Brody Grant,+Ricky Ubeda, Chip Zien, Dorian Harewood, Ali Louis Bourzghi

S Actor Musical: Radcliffe, Skybell, Paul Alexander Nolan, Ben Cook, Joshua Boone.

S Actress Musical: Lindsay Mendez, Leslie Kritzer, Bebe, Kecia Lewis, Amber Iman, Jenn Collela.

Nominators are rescheduled if a main performer is out for their ticketed show. There is no way the producers would allow them to come while Eden is out. And unless they have a conflict, most of the nominators see each production during the press period. Any recent absences will have no effect on whether she receives a nomination or not.

I do think one of the favorites in Lead Actress will be snubbed though. Maybe Eden. Maybe Gayle. There's just so many potentials there. Kelli O'Hara, Maleah Joi Moon, Maryann Plunkett, Shaina Taub, Eden Espinosa, Nichelle Lewis, Gayle Rankin...unless there's a tie, two of those women are being left out.

What are the chances Taub is nominated for book/score but misses out on actress? Haven’t seen it yet but from what I’ve heard her performance is good but in a crowded year good might not cut it. Especially, if they have two other chances to award her.

I know we don't even have the nominations yet, but some awards feels very certain to me.

Best Play - Stereophonic

Best Actor in a Play - Jeremy Strong

Best Featured Actor in a Musical - Daniel Radcliffe (what is his competition??)

Best Choreography - Illinoise

One category that for me is blank is Featured Actor in a Play. I though Will Keem would get but the reception for Patriots was so lukewarm that I don't know anymore. William Jackson Harper? Will Brill?

Updated On: 4/25/24 at 12:46 PM

I'm predicting Eden to miss. Not because of the missed performances but because I think Lempicka gets blanked entirely. Sort of like Carolee Carmello in Bad Cinderella last year. Even a well liked performer won't get in for a show that I don't think will get anything.

I predict Eden will be nominated.

EDSOSLO858 said: "Lead actor in a play is a two-horse race between Strong and Leslie Odom Jr., and with the proshot ofPurlie Victoriouspremiering on PBS in amonth, I don't think there'll be as much recency bias in play as last year (Henderson vs. Hayes).

Odom has won a Tony before though (and relatively recently, in 2016), which may flip the pendulum in Strong's direction."

It's between Strong and Stuhlbarg. Odom only wins if Strong and Stuhlbarg split the vote enough for Odom to squeeze between.

I think Strong/Enemy got far better reviews than Stuhlbarg/Patriots, his show is a monster hit and he is on a high note because of ''Succession''.

If they really like Patriots, Keems seems a much better fit for a ''reward win''.

I've seen a lot of good notices for Steven Skybell both on the boards and in reviews, but he never seems to be as notable in the role as Bebe in hers, is that just due to their respective levels of fame or is it actually that he doesn't seem to have as lauded of a performance? Right now I'm leaning Daniel Radcliffe for Featured Actor and Bebe Neuwirth for Featured Actress but I do think things could flip either way leading up to the Tonys.

My current guesses for nominations:

Best Musical

• Days of Wine and Roses
• Suffs
• Illinoise
• The Outsiders
• Water for Elephants (or Hell's Kitchen)

Best Play

• Stereophonic
• Mother Play
• Prayer for the French Republic
• Jaja’s African Hair Braiding
• Mary Jane

Best Score

• Days of Wine and Roses
• Harmony
• Suffs
• Stereophonic
• Here Lies Love or Lempicka maybe? (could also see Notebook or Outsiders or Water for Elephants taking this slot too)

Featured Actor in a Play seems like a great category for a pickup for Stereophonic, a highly beloved production that, by virtue of being an ensemble piece, can't really dominate the acting categories.

Stuhlbarg is doing the most acting, but there’s more love for Strong and Odom’s performances and overall productions. I really don’t see him passing those two. My money’s on Strong.