2024 Tony Predictions — Page 8

If we're talking surprises along the Mike Faist/Nikki M. James line, I would guess it would be Merrily and Stereophonic way overperforming in the Featured Categories and getting 2-3 slots per category. If they prove to be far and away frontrunners like DEH and BOM were in their seasons, I could see some surprise people getting swept up in it.

A few things about musical revival.

Spamalot isn't likely to be nominated because it is essentially a carbon copy of the original production, while the show itself was great, revival tends to acknowledge productions that reinvented or breath new life into a show, that said Leslie is likely to get nominated because that part is kind of built to be a show stopper "look at me" role.

Gutenberg potentially not getting nominated because it is already closed doesn't exactly track and interestingly while the critical response was mixed, audiences seemed to respond positively, and if we are going by critical response as a main nominating factor, The Wiz and Gutenberg have a betten agregated critic score on Did He Like It then Cabaret did.

I could also see a universe where we end up with a tie for that 4th spot, especially since it seems likely Cabaret is potentially going to sit lower on some nominators list.

The most beautiful costumes this season are from Paul Tazewell for Suffs and Linda Cho for The Great Gatsby, I hope they’re both nominated. Eva’s costumes in Gatsby are just gorgeous.

Call_me_jorge said: "I’m curious. Does the nominating committee figure out the nominations via committee or is it a secret ballot kind of thing? I guess, in my head I kind of pictured the nominating committee meets in a board room somewhere and they all have a discussionwho they want to be nominated."

its a digital ballot there are usually around 50 nominators

GoldDerby.com: Hey, Tony nominators! Don't forget these 10 deserving contenders

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XlXYFO62ZFM

MezzA101 said: "https://variety.com/lists/2024-tonys-awards-prediction"

Some interesting predictions that I think could come true. But, it's hard for me to not throw out the whole thing when you think Lempicka is getting musical, score, and book noms.

They also imply that Here Lies Love is eligible for Best Book (GoldDerby also has it available to select in making your own predictions). Did we ever get a ruling on whether or not it's eligible and who would even receive that nom?

I loved Lempicka, but I know it isn't getting any nominations whatsoever.

HeyMrMusic said: "I think an Elizabeth A. Davis-like nomination could go to Ricky Ubeda’s Illinoisecastmate (and fellowSYTYCDwinner) Gaby Diaz. If she and Ben Cook get nominated,Illinoisecould be the one to beat."

I hope that happens! But it really wouldn't shock me at all, and after all she has the largest female role in the show.

An Elizabeth A. Davis-level shocker would be if, say, Andrea Burns gets a nomination for her role in The Notebook.

“Book” doesn’t only refer to spoken dialogue, it includes structural aspects of the show as well.

I don't think anyone is arguing whether or not Here Lies Love has a book/structure. However, the official opening night credits don't include a bookwriter, and the Tony eligibility rulings didn't clarify that the show is eligible for Best Book (they've made more obvious clarifications like Des McAnuff being eligible for directing Tommy and Joseph Joubert being eligible for The Wiz's orchestrations).

Broadway Flash said: "Leading actress in a musical

kelli ohara, Gayle rankin, Shaina Taub, Maleah Moon, Eva Noblezada. I took out Eden for Hell’s Kitchen. I think Notebook will get shut out except maybe score.


leading actor in a musical

Jonathan groff, Eddie redmayne, Bryan Darcy James, Jeremy Jordan, Casey Likes. They might throw in more like Brody Grant. Didn’t they nominate 7 last year?"

My eyes just sprained rolling so hard reading Jeremy Jordan and Casey Likes.

I still haven't seen Outsiders or Hell's Kitchen, but I think my final predictions are (roughly in order of what I think the likelihood is):

Best Musical
Suffs
Days of Wine and Roses
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Water for Elephants
Hell's Kitchen*
* honestly could see a tie getting this to 6 nominees, with the Heart of Rock and Roll also a surprise possibility

Best Play
Stereophonic
Prayer for the French Republic
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Mother Play
* on the bubble: Patriots

Best Score
Days of Wine and Roses
Stereophonic
Suffs
Harmony
The Outsiders
* also possibly a tie in this category, as I haven't seen Outsiders but Water for Elephants and Notebook both seem to have "equal" scores to me (though I'd rank W4E slightly higher)

Best Book
Days of Wine and Roses
Suffs
Illinoise
The Outsiders
The Notebook
* I wonder if Illinoise not being a traditional book musical could hurt it in this category but I think the effort to make a cohesive story out of the album is a feat in and of itself. I wasn't enamored with The Notebook, but it seems to be respected by a lot of people, and the other option here would probably be W4E

Director
Maria Friedman - Merrily We Roll Along
Rebecca Frecknell - Cabaret
Justin Peck - Illinoise
Alex Timbers - Here Lies Love
Jessica Stone - Water for Elephants
* I...really don't know what's going on in this category outside of Merrily so these are mostly who I thought had the most interesting visions (the critics didn't like Frecknell, but it seems like general sentiment is warmer). It also seems like Michael Grief should get a nod somewhere, in which case my bet would be Wine and Roses but I really have no clue

Choreography
Illinoise
Water for Elephants
Heart of Rock and Roll
The Outsiders
Hell's Kitchen
* hard to tell since I haven't seen HK/Outsiders, but I could also see Cabaret or even Gatsby getting into this category. Heart of Rock and Roll probably also isn't as secure of a nomination but I thought it was one of my favorite parts of the show.

Best Actor in a Musical
Jonathan Groff - Merrily We Roll Along
Brian D'arcy James - Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne - Cabaret
Chip Zien - Harmony
Ali Louis Bourzgi - Tommy
* the top four are pretty set for me (but only really the top two I think are REALLY guaranteed), could possibly see Brody Grant (Outsiders), Jeremy Jordan (Gatsby) or one of the Gutenberg boys here too

Best Actress in a Musical
Kelli O'Hara - Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett - The Notebook
Shaina Taub - Suffs
Eden Espinosa - Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon - Hell's Kitchen
* I could see Shaina Taub being dropped since she'll be nominated for book/score, or Eden Espinosa given that she's had a lot of vocal issues recently, but I think they'll both be acknowledged here. Gayle Rankin (Cabaret) was the main other wild card for me here, though I'd LOVE if Arielle Jacobs (Here Lies Love) got in

Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell - Cabaret
Ricky Ubeda - Illinoise
Paul Alexander Nolan - Water for Elephants
Conrad Ricamora - Here Lies Love
* If I'm being super honest, I think Ben Cook (Illinoise) probably has a better chance at the last slot, but I just needed something to believe in for Here Lies Love

Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Bebe Neuwirth - Cabaret
Lindsay Mendez - Merrily We Roll Along
Amber Iman - Lempicka
Jenn Colella - Suffs
Nikki M. James - Suffs
* The only ones I feel confident about are the top two, but I could also see this with Hanna Cruz (Suffs) and maybe Shoshana Bean (Hell's Kitchen). I honestly don't see Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer (Spamalot) getting a nom here, though I'd be quite happy for her if she did

Best Scenic Design in a Musical
Back to the Future
Here Lies Love
Cabaret
Gatsby
Water for Elephants
* I really don't see a world where the top 4 here don't get nominated, so I think the fifth slot is the one that's up for grabs, which I suppose could also be The Outsiders or Tommy (which I haven't seen) though people who saw the original production didn't seem to be impressed

I didn't really go into the play categories much because I haven't been following them as closely, but I wish all the best for Stereophonic and Jaja's African Hair Braiding in particular