2024 Tony Predictions- Page 6

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 3:21pm

In another season, Michael Stuhlbarg could be walking away with the Best Actor Tony.

I didn't see Tom Hollander in London, but Stuhlbarg is doing astonishing work here and grounds that play with his humane performance of an incredibly complex man. I don't love that play, but he keeps it interesting.

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 3:48pm

After just seeing ILLINOISE, it's a travesty that Ubeda isn't in the lead category.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 3:51pm

ACL2006 said: "After just seeing ILLINOISE, it's a travesty that Ubeda isn't in the lead category."

Make it make sense. 

[kurtal]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 4:27pm

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "In another season, Michael Stuhlbarg could be walking away with the Best Actor Tony.

I didn't see Tom Hollander in London, but Stuhlbarg is doing astonishing work here and grounds that play with his humane performance of an incredibly complex man. I don't love thatplay, but he keeps it interesting."

I mean, if the Tony were for most acting, I’d agree with you. I personally found it a bit much 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 5:29pm

My FINAL predictions (some changes from my predictions on p. 1 of this thread):

Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water For Elephants

Best Play
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic

Best Revival of a Musical
Cabaret
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who's Tommy
The Wiz

Best Revival of a Play
Appropriate
Doubt
Purlie Victorious

Lead Actor in a Musical
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian D'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret
Chip Zien, Harmony

Lead Actress in a Musical
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret
Shaina Taub, Suffs

Lead Actor in a Play
Steve Carell, Uncle Vanya
William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

Lead Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt

Featured Actor in a Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen
Paul Alexander Nolan, Water For Elephants
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Reg Rogers, Merrily We Roll Along

Featured Actress in a Musical
Krystal Joy Brown, Merrily We Roll Along
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Spamalot
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret

Featured Actor in a Play
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli, An Enemy of the People
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

Featured Actress in a Play
Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic
Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic
Victoria Pedretti, An Enemy of the People
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

Original Score
Days of Wine and Roses - Adam Guettel
The Notebook - Ingrid Michaelson
The Outsiders - Jamestown Revival & Justin Levine
Stereophonic - Will Butler
Suffs - Shaina Taub

Book of a Musical
Days of Wine and Roses - Craig Lucas
Hell's Kitchen - Kristoffer Diaz
The Notebook - Bekah Brunstetter
The Outsiders - Adam Rapp & Justin Levine
Suffs - Shaina Taub

Direction of a Musical
Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Leigh Silverman, Suffs
Danya Taymor, The Outsiders
Alex Timbers, Here Lies Love

Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
David Cromer, Prayer for the French Republic
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate

Choreography
Camille A. Brown, Hell's Kitchen
Rick Kuperman & Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders
Lorin Latarro, The Who's Tommy
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Jesse Robb & Shana Carroll, Water For Elephants

Scenic Design of a Musical
Paul Tate dePoo III, The Great Gatsby
Soutra Gilmour, Merrily We Roll Along
Tim Hatley & Finn Ross, Back to the Future
David Korins, Here Lies Love
Tom Scutt, Cabaret

Scenic Design of a Play
Paul Tate dePoo III, The Cottage
dots, Appropriate
Derek McLane, Purlie Victorious
Scott Pask, Grey House
David Zinn, Stereophonic

Costume Design of a Musical
Sarafina Bush, The Who's Tommy
Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby
Soutra Gilmour, Merrily We Roll Along
Clint Ramos, Here Lies Love
Tom Scutt, Cabaret

Costume Design of a Play
Dede Ayite, Appropriate
Dede Ayite, Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic
Sydney Maresca, The Cottage
Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious

Lighting Design of a Musical
Isabella Byrd, Cabaret
Tim Lutkin & Hugh Vanstone, Back to the Future
Brian MacDevitt & Hanna S. Kim, The Outsiders
Cory Pattak, The Great Gatsby
Justin Townsend, Here Lies Love

Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People
Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic
Jane Cox, Appropriate
Adam Honore, Purlie Victorious
Natasha Katz, Grey House

Sound Design of a Musical
Jason Crystal, Suffs
Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along
Gareth MacAleavey, Illinoise
Gareth Owen, Hell's Kitchen
Cody Spencer, The Outsiders

Sound Design of a Play
Mikhail Fiksel & Beth Lake, Uncle Vanya
Tom Gibbons, Grey House
Bray Poor & Will Pickens, Appropriate
Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic
Mikaal Sulaiman, Doubt

Orchestrations
Timo Andres, Illinoise
Will Butler & Justin Craig, Stereophonic
John Clancy & Carmel Dean, The Notebook
Adam Guettel & Jamie Lawrence, Days of Wine and Roses
Michael Starobin, Suffs

TOTALS
12 nominations: Stereophonic
10 nominations: Merrily We Roll Along
8 nominations: Appropriate, The Outsiders, Suffs
7 nominations: Cabaret, Purlie Victorious
6 nominations: Hell's Kitchen
5 nominations: Days of Wine and Roses, Illinoise, The Notebook
4 nominations: An Enemy of the People, Here Lies Love
3 nominations: Doubt, The Great Gatsby, Grey House, Mary Jane, Prayer for the French Republic, Uncle Vanya, Water For Elephants, The Who's Tommy
2 nominations: Back to the Future, The Cottage, Jaja's African Hair Braiding, Mother Play, Patriots
1 nomination: Harmony, Spamalot, The Wiz
0 nominations: Gutenberg the Musical, The Heart of Rock and Roll, How to Dance in Ohio, I Need That, Once Upon a One More Time, The Shark is Broken

[LuckyDipster]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 5:39pm

I just can't wait for it all to be over at this point.

😄

[ACL2006]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 5:41pm

Ubeda is absolutely getting a Tony nom. 100% no doubt.

[bryan32]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 7:40pm

what about shows that opened early in the season like how to dance in ohio

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 7:54pm

bryan32 said: "what about shows that opened early in the season like how to dance in ohio"

What about them?

They are all eligible and if the nominating committee feels they have elements worthy of a nomination, they'll be nominated.

Doubt OHIO would get many (if any), but I  personally think HERE LIES LOVE still stands to get 5 to 10 noms considering the general weirdness of the season, ambitiousness, and a lot of "nominate-able" elements.

[Sara904]

Posted: 4/27/24 at 10:12pm

CoffeeBreak said: "Ubeda's performance is better than Radcliffe without saying a word. Replace Ricamora or Dixon with Ben Cook.

Ok it's clear you love Ubeda and Ilinoise but what's your problem with Radcliffe? It's the third time you look down on his performance and no matter how hard you try to make Ubeda the frontrunner in the Best Featured Actor category, he isn't because the actors in Merrily have the reviews, the success and the narrative to win, also don't forget that Broadway is very inclusive and probably Radcliffe will get votes because of his trans community support. Don't underestimate an actor to praise another

 

[Dreamboy3]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:38am

I was sure Kara Young was a shoe in but just saw Sterophonic and Sarah Pigeon is giving  the standout performance of the season. 

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:18am

Dreamboy3 said: "I was sure Kara Young was a shoe in but just saw Sterophonic and Sarah Pigeon is giving the standout performance of the season."

Kara Young being passed over for the third time would be insane... but she really wasn't my favorite performance in this category. I generally admit to not like Purlie as much as everyone else, but this category does feel especially strong. I'd definitely give it to Pigeon or Benhamou over Young. 

[bwaylyric]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:28am

Now that the Tony committee has made its rulings, what one nomination would make you so happy to hear on Tuesday morning?

Mine: Here Lies Love for Best Musical

 

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 01:28 AM

[Wayman_Wong]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:31am

''Now that the Tony committee has made its rulings, what one nomination would make you so happy to hear on Monday morning?

''Mine: Here Lies Love for Best Musical''

I agree 1,000% with your brilliant choice, but the Tony nominations will be announced Tuesday morning.

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 01:31 AM

[bwaylyric]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:48am

Ooops. Corrected. Thanks!

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:59am

bwaylyric said: "Now that the Tony committee has made its rulings, what one nomination would make you so happy to hear on Tuesdaymorning?

Mine: Here Lies Love for Best Musical

"

Design nominations for Illinoise (surprise Scenic design nom in addition to Lighting and Sound)

Book of a Musical for Illinoise

Featured actor nominations for Ricky Ubeda and Ben Cook

Basically I’m hoping for 10 Nominations for Illinoise: Musical, Book, Direction, 2 Featured Actor, Choreography, Orchestration, Lighting, Sound and Set.  

I know I’m stretching with Set Design but the question is what would make me happy and 8-10 nominations would really make me happy.  This show deserves it.

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 01:59 AM

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 2:55am

bwaylyric said: "Now that the Tony committee has made its rulings, what one nomination would make you so happy to hear on Tuesdaymorning?

Mine: Here Lies Love for Best Musical

"

Chip Zien

[DramaTeach]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 4:32am

Now that I think about it, I’d really love to have Heart of RnR get some love on Tuesday. It won’t because it’s cornier than the rest (excuse the Shucked callback), but it has heart and it’s a ton of fun. Plus the show really needs it. I’m going to keep my fingers crossed.

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 10:29am

jkcohen626 said: "Dreamboy3 said: "I was sure Kara Young was a shoe in but just saw Sterophonic and Sarah Pigeon is giving the standout performance of the season."

Kara Young being passed over for the third time would be insane... but she really wasn't my favorite performance in this category. I generally admit to not like Purlie as much as everyone else, but this category does feel especially strong. I'd definitely give it to Pigeon or Benhamou over Young."

I completely agree! She was good but  I wasn’t that impressed with Kara’s performance as well.  Francis Benhamou was marvelous in Prayer.  Her lines were insane!  And on top of all the things she was saying I was totally convinced on her convictions.  Her performance was so real.  She was firing on all cylinders and I was captivated by her.  It was as if I was eavesdropping on a conversation between two people debating behind me at a cafe.  

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 10:59am

Wait, we’re talking about Kara Young not being nominated? I don’t want to live in a world where that happens. 

[Markie27]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 11:14am

Jordan Catalano said: "Wait, we’re talking about Kara Young not being nominated? I don’t want to live in a world where that happens."

Oh no she is definitely going to be nominated.  I’m not even sure if Francis Benhamou would be nominated.  Kara Young and Sarah Pigeon are locks.

[Voter]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 11:49am

I am expecting a huge SURPRISE nomination that we are not expecting or oversaw. Thoughts? Wondering what could it be? (Example: Nikki M James in The Book of Mormon)

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 11:52am

Krystal Joy Brown for Merrily.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:04pm

CoffeeBreak said: "Ubeda's performance is better than Radcliffe without saying a word. Replace Ricamora or Dixon with Ben Cook.

Ok it's clear you love Ubeda and Ilinoise but what's your problem with Radcliffe? It's the third time you look down on his performance and no matter how hard you try to make Ubeda the frontrunner in the Best Featured Actor category, he isn't because the actors in Merrily have the reviews, the success and the narrative to win, also don't forget that Broadway is very inclusive and probably Radcliffe will get votes because of his trans community support. Don't underestimate an actor to praise another

I doubt any of Dan's connections to the trans community would have anything  do with his winning of a Tony.  Few people even know he has any.  We enjoyed his performance.  We did not think it was nearly as good as Jonathan or Lindsay's.   He was a serviceable fit to the group.  They have a nice "narrative" for their show and as "friends" based on their characters the show.  

The difference for us is Dan could be replaced with any other actor/semi-singer and no one notice the difference other than Potter fans.  He helps sell the show to tourists. We saw both Dan and and an understudy.  The role was much better sung with the understudy and the "friendship" just as in tact.   It was made clear the glue was Groff & Mendez and the "celebrity" driver, Radcliffe. I have nothing against his performance but the better understudy made things clear.

Ubeda has a charm, undeniable talent and energy that's much harder to replace - and needs no "celebrity" to achieve that.  Illinoise has the same strong "narrative" and reviews now, as does Ubeda, and recent one. It's a valid opinion.

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 12:04 PM

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:28pm

These are my big "hopes."

DOWAR, along with both lead actors and a lighting nom.

Danielle Radcliffe, not that I think he will or should win, but because the Tonys have overlooked too many of his previous performances. (Note: I do thing he EARNED the nom with this performance.)

Ricky Ubeda a nom.  

 And BEBE!

 

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 12:28 PM