Various Thoughts (sorry, it's long!):
BEST MUSICAL: Nominators have a better track record than voters at remembering closed shows, but could two closed shows get in? Going strictly by the best reviewed shows, you'd have to admit the 5 nominees should be Illinoise, Here Lies Love, Wine & Roses, Suffs, and Hells Kitchen. But will both HLL & DoW&R get in? Seems lofty. I would love to see The Outsiders here as it was my personal favorite of the season. Personally, I'd be fine leaving out DoW&R or HK to get Outsiders in. There's a part of me that wonders if Heart of RocknRoll has enough goodwill to surprise here. 3 'jukebox'' shows though in a season full of plenty of original scores feels like a statement.
MUSICAL REVIVAL: Merrily and Tommy feel like locks (with Merrily certainly winning), but honestly I could see the other two spots going any which way. Won't be surprised with whichever combo gets them, but will be disappointed if Wiz gets one. I'd prefer Gutenberg & Cabaret, personally.
BEST PLAY: This seems like the most certain set of nominees. I'd be shocked if it ends up not being Stereo, MJ, Patriots, Prayer & Jaja. Looks like we will get our first non-British transfer Best Play winner since 2017 (Oslo). The Brits have been on a winning streak in this category, but that seems almost certain to end this year. Besides Patriots (which does not seem poised to beat out Stereo or MJ), the only other British transfer in this category this year was Shark is Broken, and I personally thought that was the worst show of the season, if not many seasons.
MUSICAL ACTRESS: O'Hara, Moon & Plunkett seem certain, but those other two slots feel hectic. I haven't seen anyone mention McKenzie Kurtz here, but I wouldn't be surprised if she slips in to one of those final two slots. That might be my Go Big or Go Home prediction of the year.
MUSICAL ACTOR: Most people seem to think the Gutenberg boys will cancel each other out, but we have seen before many multiple nominees from shows the nominators really like. With Cabaret getting mixed responses, could Gad & Rannells knock out Redmayne and join Groff, Zien & James here? I think there's a world where that could happen. Personally, i'd love to see Brody Grant here myself.
PLAY ACTRESS: What a fun category! This one will be fun to watch all the way to Tony night I think. Paulson v McAdams v Lange. How juicy. I think Aidem will nab the 4th slot edging out Ryan, but if not, that's a lot of Hollywood power in one category.
PLAY ACTOR: This will be another fun one to watch until the last minute I suspect. Strong, Odom, Harper and Stuhlberg seem likely. The last spot feels like it will be Carrell or Schrieber, but I wonder if Danny DeVito could sneak in without anyone noticing. Most people agreed he was pretty perfect in a play written basically for him.
MUSICAL FEATURED ACTRESS: This could be chaos. Seems like Mendez, Neuwirth & Lewis are the most likely. I would love to see those 3 plus Shoshana Bean and Gaby Diaz. But so many other options here that I wouldn't be surprised to see.
MUSICAL FEATURED ACTOR: Again, could be chaotic with 3 rising to the top: Radcliffe, Skybell & Ubeda. As much as I loved The Outsiders cast and would be so happy to see any of them appear here, I don't think there is one clear standout amongst them, so I am going with Ben Cook and Conrad Ricamora to round this out.
PLAY FEATURED ACTRESS: I think nominators will go ham on Stereophonic. I predict both Pidgeon and Canfield get in here. Also, Young and Benhamou. I would love to see the last slot going to Natalie Gold and see two Succession supporting players get some recognition here, but I am predicting Zenzi Williams who does seem to have emerged as the leading choice from an outstanding ensemble cast.
PLAY FEATURED ACTOR: Another chaotic category that could go a myriad of ways. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up with more than 5 nominees because of ties. How many Stereophonic guys will get in? I hope Brill and Gelb both make the cut, but wouldn't be surprised to see more. My biggest hope here is Luke Thallon who was my favorite in Patriots, but that doesn't seem very likely right now, although Keen feels like a smart choice. But also some good performances to choose from in Appropriate and Purlie. Plus Imperioli as well. Ugh. No idea what to do here.
MUSICAL DIRECTOR: Looking like we may see more women in this category than men, which would be a neat landmark. Frecknall seemed like a shoe-in last month, but could she get bumped out? Personally, I just hope to see Alex Timbers (HLL) and Danya Taymor here. Those are my two favorite pieces of direction by far. Looks like Grief could end up with 0 nominations after directing 3 shows in a single season. That's a bit of a shame.
PLAY DIRECTOR: Appropriate, Stereophonic, Purlie, Patriots, and Enemy seem like a good set of candidates here. But could Anne Kaufman bump someone out for Mary Jane?
SCORE: If going by my personal tastes, this feels obvious: Here Lies Love, Wine & Roses, Outsiders, Suffs & Stereophonic. With Harmony a close 6th. But I wouldn't be surprised to see something else like Elephants in there instead of Stereophonic, simply because it is a musical with an original score, so they may feel they should honor it over a play.
CHOREOGRAPHY: Illinoise, HK, and Outsiders all better get in. I admit actually that I didn't love the choreography in Outsiders until that rumble which should win awards just for that. I also think Heart of RocknRoll could sneak in here. 5th spot then going to either Tommy or Cabaret...and now that I think about it, they may leave Cabaret out here...
Whew, that's a lot of thoughts. Gonna stop there before getting into all the design categories...
