2024 Tony Predictions- Page 7

[Sara904]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:40pm

CoffeeBreak said: "The difference for us is Dan could be replaced withany other actor/semi-singer and no one notice the differenceother than Potter fans. He helps sell the show to tourists. We saw both Dan and an understudy. The role was better sung with the understudy and the "friendship" just as in tact. It was made clear the glue was Mendez and Groff and the "celebrity" driver was Dan." 

So you dislike Dan because he is Harry Potter and he's a celebrity that sells a show to tourists? LOL the Potter haters are so funny, you think you are smarter than the fans but you are way more biased and Radcliffe is a really good stage actor( the critics say it, not me), Harry Potter ended a decade ago so get over it. And his trans support is very well known in the media and public but you think only Potter fans care about his opinions. If you see him as Harry Potter and not as a real actor it's not his fault

 

[Kad]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:41pm

I'm expecting a number of categories to have expanded numbers of nominees, largely because so many performances seem to be at the same level and I imagine that will lead to ties in nominator votes.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:55pm

So you dislike Dan because he is Harry Potter and he's a celebrity that sells a show to tourists? LOL the Potter haters are so funny, you think you are smarter than the fans but you are way more biased and Radcliffe is a really good stage actor( the critics say it, not me), Harry Potter ended a decade ago so get over it. And his trans support is very well known in the media and public but you think only Potter fans care about his opinions. If you see him as Harry Potter and not as a real actor it's not his fault

No. I do not think I am "smarter".  Never said I disliked Dan or his performance - he's the celebrity to help sell the show.  I've never seen Potter, so I can't be any form of "hater" - just stating the reason he is there... is partly because of his celebrity, to those who know Potter etc, and want to see him live.    It's a win for the show financially.  It's commercial theater.   I know what I saw in comparison to his understudy.  That's all - it's not personal.  It's an opinion.

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 12:55 PM

[FLarnhill]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 12:56pm

kurtal said: "ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "In another season, Michael Stuhlbarg could be walking away with the Best Actor Tony.

I didn't see Tom Hollander in London, but Stuhlbarg is doing astonishing work here and grounds that play with his humane performance of an incredibly complex man. I don't love thatplay, but he keeps it interesting."

I mean, if the Tony were for most acting, I’d agree with you. I personally found it a bit much"

We already had this convo.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:02pm

Kad said: "I'm expecting a number of categories to have expanded numbers of nominees, largely because so many performances seem to be at the same level and I imagine that will lead to ties in nominator votes."

I’m thinking the same thing, and certainly hope it happens. Some of the performance categories feel like an embarrassment of riches that I’m struggling to narrow down to just five nominees.

[Sara904]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:05pm

CoffeeBreak said: "No. Never said I disliked Dan or his performance - he's the celebrity to help sell the show. It's commercial theater."

You dislike that he is Harry Potter and a celebrity, that's part of his identity. Whatever you like it or not he isn't worse than Ubeda or another actor just because he played an iconic role and he has many fans. He's playing Charlie, not Harry Potter and many people that praise him for his acting aren't Potter fans at all

 

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:08pm

Probably best not to tell me what I think. We enjoyed him a lot as Ginsberg in "Kill Your Darlings" and "Equus".   I like that Potter is part of his identity, it's a good part of what's helped keep the show alive so we all can see this great revival.

Never said they were.  He IS a draw though for those who want to see Dan live and play a new character.  Producers and directors know that.  

Everything is subjective including opinions.  Not worth an online "fight" over some award.  Again it's just an opinion.

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 01:08 PM

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:16pm

The tony award winner for best musical is now 0-2 since 2021 for recoupment. Could winning the “top” prize be considered a bad omen now or is it too early to tell? 

[Sara904]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:16pm

Ok i'll leave this "fight" here, i just think that is very unfair to judge an actor based on his celebrity status and not on his talent. Also being a draw to audiences is good for the theatre

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:19pm

Call_me_jorge said: "The tony award winner for best musical is now 0-2 since 2021 for recoupment. Could winning the “top” prize be considered a bad omen now or is it too early to tell?"

It’s not a bad omen, the “artistic” shows that usually win the award don’t seem to appeal to mass audiences post-pandemic. 

[dwhit7]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:22pm

CJRochester said: "Featured Actor in a Musical looks like a crowded field. I think everyone agrees Radcliffe is definitely a lock for a nomination. A few others will have to be left out.

Daniel Radcliffe - Merrily We Roll Along

Joshua Boone (maybe Brent Comer) - Outsiders

Ricky Ubeda and/or Ben Cook - Illinoise

Brandon Victor Dixon - Hell's Kitchen

Conrad Ricamora - Here Lies Love

Ethan Slater - Spamalot"

Hugh Coles in "Back to the Future" is excellent!

[scripps]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:23pm

If I can chose only one nomination, it would be Imperioli in An Enemy of the People. If I can expand that to three, I would like to see Paul Alexander Nolan finally earn a nom and for Reg Rogers to be included in the Merrily wave. 

Updated On: 4/28/24 at 01:23 PM

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:28pm

Imperioli was great and wonderful to see live.

Do we see any of the comedic musicals getting nominations?  We missed Once Upon a One More Time  and haven't seen Heart of Rock 'N Roll yet.

What are the best shots for these and Spamalot, Dance in Ohio ...?

[Kad]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:37pm

Once Upon a One More Time will likely be entirely shut out, but has some chance to get into Best Choreo I suppose. 
 

Heart of RnR may do alright by virtue of having low expectations that it’s easily cleared. It could sneak into Best Book and even Best Musical. 
 

Spamalot seems like a long shot for a nomination for Best Revival but Leslie Kritzer seems well positioned for a nomination.

How to Dance will be shut out entirely. 

[dwhit7]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:41pm

Jordan Catalano said: "Kurtal, I like your list! I do think "Outsiders" gets a lighting nomination and "Heart of Rock and Roll" gets a choreo nom, though. But we'll see..."

Loved the choreo in THORAR!

[theatergoer3]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:42pm

I would also love to see Paul Alexander Nolan and Reg Rogers get noms.

And as many of the cast of Stereophonic as possible. 

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 1:54pm

Yes! I am hoping at least Gelb, Pigeon & Brill are nominated for Stereophonic.

Spamalot had better reviews than both Gutenberg and The Wiz.   Are we thinking The Wiz because it's still running... even with some mixed/bad reviews?  

[Dreamboy3]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 2:29pm

Jordan Catalano said: "Wait, we’re talking about Kara Young not being nominated? I don’t want to live in a world where that happens."

I was just talking about who would win. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 2:36pm

Kad said: "Once Upon a One More Time will likely be entirely shut out, but has some chance to get into Best Choreo I suppose.


Heart of RnR may do alright by virtue of having low expectations that it’s easily cleared. It could sneak into Best Book and even Best Musical.


Spamalot seems like a long shot for a nomination for Best Revival but Leslie Kritzer seems well positioned for a nomination.

How to Dance will be shut out entirely."

Although I agree Heart of R&R cleared expectations, I'd be super surprised if it managed to sneak into the Best Musical or Best Book race. I think it's one and only chance for a nom is Choreography.

[MrJNLong]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 2:57pm

Various Thoughts (sorry, it's long!):

BEST MUSICAL: Nominators have a better track record than voters at remembering closed shows, but could two closed shows get in? Going strictly by the best reviewed shows, you'd have to admit the 5 nominees should be Illinoise, Here Lies Love, Wine & Roses, Suffs, and Hells Kitchen. But will both HLL & DoW&R get in? Seems lofty.  I would love to see The Outsiders here as it was my personal favorite of the season.  Personally, I'd be fine leaving out DoW&R or HK to get Outsiders in. There's a part of me that wonders if Heart of RocknRoll has enough goodwill to surprise here.  3 'jukebox'' shows though in a season full of plenty of original scores feels like a statement.

MUSICAL REVIVAL: Merrily and Tommy feel like locks (with Merrily certainly winning), but honestly I could see the other two spots going any which way.  Won't be surprised with whichever combo gets them, but will be disappointed if Wiz gets one. I'd prefer Gutenberg & Cabaret, personally.

BEST PLAY: This seems like the most certain set of nominees. I'd be shocked if it ends up not being Stereo, MJ, Patriots, Prayer & Jaja.  Looks like we will get our first non-British transfer Best Play winner since 2017 (Oslo).  The Brits have been on a winning streak in this category, but that seems almost certain to end this year.  Besides Patriots (which does not seem poised to beat out Stereo or MJ), the only other British transfer in this category this year was Shark is Broken, and I personally thought that was the worst show of the season, if not many seasons.

MUSICAL ACTRESS: O'Hara, Moon & Plunkett seem certain, but those other two slots feel hectic.  I haven't seen anyone mention McKenzie Kurtz here, but I wouldn't be surprised if she slips in to one of those final two slots. That might be my Go Big or Go Home prediction of the year.

MUSICAL ACTOR: Most people seem to think the Gutenberg boys will cancel each other out, but we have seen before many multiple nominees from shows the nominators really like.  With Cabaret getting mixed responses, could Gad & Rannells knock out Redmayne and join Groff, Zien & James here? I think there's a world where that could happen. Personally, i'd love to see Brody Grant here myself.

PLAY ACTRESS: What a fun category! This one will be fun to watch all the way to Tony night I think. Paulson v McAdams v Lange. How juicy.  I think Aidem will nab the 4th slot edging out Ryan, but if not, that's a lot of Hollywood power in one category.

PLAY ACTOR: This will be another fun one to watch until the last minute I suspect. Strong, Odom, Harper and Stuhlberg seem likely. The last spot feels like it will be Carrell or Schrieber, but I wonder if Danny DeVito could sneak in without anyone noticing. Most people agreed he was pretty perfect in a play written basically for him.

MUSICAL FEATURED ACTRESS: This could be chaos.  Seems like Mendez, Neuwirth & Lewis are the most likely.  I would love to see those 3 plus Shoshana Bean and Gaby Diaz. But so many other options here that I wouldn't be surprised to see.

MUSICAL FEATURED ACTOR: Again, could be chaotic with 3 rising to the top: Radcliffe, Skybell & Ubeda.  As much as I loved The Outsiders cast and would be so happy to see any of them appear here, I don't think there is one clear standout amongst them, so I am going with Ben Cook and Conrad Ricamora to round this out.

PLAY FEATURED ACTRESS: I think nominators will go ham on Stereophonic. I predict both Pidgeon and Canfield get in here.  Also, Young and Benhamou. I would love to see the last slot going to Natalie Gold and see two Succession supporting players get some recognition here, but I am predicting Zenzi Williams who does seem to have emerged as the leading choice from an outstanding ensemble cast.

PLAY FEATURED ACTOR: Another chaotic category that could go a myriad of ways. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up with more than 5 nominees because of ties.  How many Stereophonic guys will get in? I hope Brill and Gelb both make the cut, but wouldn't be surprised to see more. My biggest hope here is Luke Thallon who was my favorite in Patriots, but that doesn't seem very likely right now, although Keen feels like a smart choice. But also some good performances to choose from in Appropriate and Purlie. Plus Imperioli as well. Ugh. No idea what to do here.

MUSICAL DIRECTOR: Looking like we may see more women in this category than men, which would be a neat landmark.  Frecknall seemed like a shoe-in last month, but could she get bumped out? Personally, I just hope to see Alex Timbers (HLL) and Danya Taymor here. Those are my two favorite pieces of direction by far. Looks like Grief could end up with 0 nominations after directing 3 shows in a single season. That's a bit of a shame.

PLAY DIRECTOR: Appropriate, Stereophonic, Purlie, Patriots, and Enemy seem like a good set of candidates here. But could Anne Kaufman bump someone out for Mary Jane?

SCORE: If going by my personal tastes, this feels obvious: Here Lies Love, Wine & Roses, Outsiders, Suffs & Stereophonic.  With Harmony a close 6th.  But I wouldn't be surprised to see something else like Elephants in there instead of Stereophonic, simply because it is a musical with an original score, so they may feel they should honor it over a play.

CHOREOGRAPHY: Illinoise, HK, and Outsiders all better get in. I admit actually that I didn't love the choreography in Outsiders until that rumble which should win awards just for that.  I also think Heart of RocknRoll could sneak in here. 5th spot then going to either Tommy or Cabaret...and now that I think about it, they may leave Cabaret out here...

Whew, that's a lot of thoughts.  Gonna stop there before getting into all the design categories...

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 9:20pm

Voter said: "I am expecting a huge SURPRISE nomination that we are not expecting or oversaw. Thoughts? Wondering what could it be? (Example: Nikki M James in The Book of Mormon)"

I'm 100% expecting a Mike Faist type of nomination at this point.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 10:27pm

I’d love to see a McKenzie Kurtz nomination. It’s light, silly material, but I think she made the most of her role, and I wouldn’t say the same about a few of this category’s more predicted contenders in more awards friendly showcases.

[Jarethan]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 10:28pm

MadsonMelo said: "Voter said: "I am expecting a huge SURPRISE nomination that we are not expecting or oversaw. Thoughts? Wondering what could it be? (Example: Nikki M James in The Book of Mormon)"

I'm 100% expecting a Mike Faist type of nomination at this point."

??????

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 10:41pm

Billy Tighe from Heart of Rock N Roll would be pretty perfect.  He was our favorite part. 

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 4/28/24 at 11:00pm

Jarethan said: "MadsonMelo said: "Voter said: "I am expecting a huge SURPRISE nomination that we are not expecting or oversaw. Thoughts? Wondering what could it be? (Example: Nikki M James in The Book of Mormon)"

I'm 100% expecting a Mike Faist type of nomination at this point."

??????"

Mike Faist getting a nomination for Dear Evan Hansen was considered a bit of a shock. In hindsight it shouldn’t have been all that surprising given he was delivering exemplary work in that season’s frontrunner, but few were predicting him to be recognized.

Looking back on it, that lineup of Faist, Ranells, Steele, Uranowitz, and Creel really was a fantastic five. Any of them would’ve been a great winner. And if Creel lost that year, then he maybe he could’ve just rightfully won last year, but that’s another story.