Posted: 4/29/24 at 5:02pm
as per today's Drama Desk noms (though we all know there is very little correlation) I would be so, so happy with an Emily Skinner nomination tomorrow.
Posted: 4/29/24 at 5:14pm
jkcohen626 said: "MezzA101 said: "https://variety.com/lists/2024-tonys-awards-prediction"
Some interesting predictions that I think could come true. But, it's hard for me to not throw out the whole thing when you think Lempicka is getting musical, score, and book noms.
They also imply that Here Lies Love is eligible for Best Book (GoldDerby also has it available to select in making your own predictions). Did we ever get a ruling on whether or not it's eligible and who would even receive that nom?"
Agree. Some of these Variety and Time Out predicted nominations are off. In past years, both have been pretty off with predictions.
Updated On: 4/29/24 at 05:14 PM
Posted: 4/29/24 at 5:17pm
CoffeeBreak said: "Agree. Some of these Variety and Time Out nominations are off. In past years, both have been pretty off."
Time Out isn't predicting, just expressing their own preferences.
Posted: 4/29/24 at 5:30pm
One of the most crazy seasons! I tried some predictions below. I purposefully went rogue on a lot of them because I expect (and hope for) full chaos tomorrow morning. (*** = winner)
Best Musical
Hell's Kitchen
Illinoise***
The Outsiders
Suffs
Here Lies Love
Best Play
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Patriots
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic***
Best Revival of a Musical
Spamalot
Merrily We Roll Along***
The Who's Tommy
The Wiz
Best Revival of a Play
Appropriate***
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious
Lead Actor in a Musical
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along***
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Who’s Tommy
Brian D'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Chip Zien, Harmony
Lead Actress in a Musical
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses***
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Arielle Jacobs, Here Lies Love
Eva Noblezada, The Great Gatsby
Lead Actor in a Play
Steve Carell, Uncle Vanya
William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom Jr., Purlie Victorious***
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots
Lead Actress in a Play
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate***
Betsy Aidem, Prayer for French Republic
Featured Actor in a Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Ricky Ubeda, Illinoise
Conrad Ricamora, Here Lies Love
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along***
Steven Skybell, Cabaret
Featured Actress in a Musical
Joy Woods, The Notebook
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret***
Featured Actor in a Play
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Michael Imperioli, An Enemy of the People
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Corey Stoll, Appropriate***
Featured Actress in a Play
Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic
Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt
Celia Keenan Bolger, Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious***
Original Score
Days of Wine and Roses - Adam Guettel
The Notebook - Ingrid Michaelson
Here Lies Love - Fatboy Slim, David Bryne
Stereophonic - Will Butler
Suffs - Shaina Taub***
Book of a Musical
Days of Wine and Roses - Craig Lucas
Hell's Kitchen - Kristoffer Diaz***
The Notebook - Bekah Brunstetter
The Outsiders - Adam Rapp & Justin Levine
Suffs - Shaina Taub
Direction of a Musical
Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along***
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Leigh Silverman, Suffs
Danya Taymor, The Outsiders
Alex Timbers, Here Lies Love
Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic***
David Cromer, Prayer for the French Republic
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate
Choreography
Camille A. Brown, Hell's Kitchen
Rick Kuperman & Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders
Lorin Latarro, The Who's Tommy
Justin Peck, Illinoise***
Jaquel Knight, The Wiz
Updated On: 4/29/24 at 05:30 PM
Posted: 4/29/24 at 5:48pm
Posted: 4/29/24 at 6:04pm
Wow, Greg Evans (Deadline) is yet another journalist super strong on Lempicka...and I don't think I buy it. Eden could still get in, and there's a sliver of a chance for score because of the memorable songs. I just don't see it landing anywhere else given the reactions to it.
Evans' article is also full of inaccuracies, often with number of slots per category (he lists 5 shows for Revival of a Musical, for instance). So I'm not taking it too seriously.
I'm most perplexed by trying to predict Best Book of a Musical. Other than Suffs...I really didn't love ANY book this season. Are we really to understand that Hell's Kitchen is getting a nomination for BOOK?? (The book can be summed up as the main character saying "and then this happened? I felt this way. And then this happened. And it was alright. And then this happened..."). Every single person is predicting it and I DONT get it. But I also can't really come up with a good five. Will they go for the unconventional Illinoise? The brutal Days of Wine and Roses? Will they look past some structural quibbles with The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants and be won over by their emotion?
Posted: 4/29/24 at 6:10pm
NYTimes: The Tony Nominations Are Tomorrow. Here’s What to Expect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/29/theater/tony-awards-nominations.html?unlocked_article_code=1.oE0.N4j8.8qcR7FUV1zH-
Posted: 4/29/24 at 6:13pm
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Wow, Greg Evans (Deadline) is yet another journalist super strong on Lempicka...and I don't think I buy it. Eden could still get in, and there's a sliver of a chance for score because of the memorable songs. I just don't see it landing anywhere else given the reactions to it.
Evans' article is also full of inaccuracies, often with number of slots per category (he lists 5 shows for Revival of a Musical, for instance). So I'm not taking it too seriously.
I'm most perplexed by trying to predict Best Book of a Musical. Other than Suffs...I really didn't love ANY book this season. Are we really to understand that Hell's Kitchen is getting a nomination for BOOK?? (The book can be summed up as the main character saying "and then this happened? I felt this way. And then this happened. And it was alright. And then this happened..."). Every single person is predicting it and I DONT get it. But I also can't really come up with a good five. Will they go for the unconventional Illinoise? The brutal Days of Wine and Roses? Will they look past some structural quibbles with The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants and be won over by their emotion?"
But couldn’t there be 5 musical revival nominees if 4th and 5th are within a certain percentage?
Posted: 4/29/24 at 10:11pm
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I'm most perplexed by trying to predict Best Book of a Musical. Other than Suffs...I really didn't love ANY book this season. Are we really to understand that Hell's Kitchen is getting a nomination for BOOK?? (The book can be summed up as the main character saying "and then this happened? I felt this way. And then this happened. And it was alright. And then this happened..."). Every single person is predicting it and I DONT get it. But I also can't really come up with a good five. Will they go for the unconventional Illinoise? The brutal Days of Wine and Roses? Will they look past some structural quibbles with The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants and be won over by their emotion?"
And yet Jagged Little Pill won best book
Posted: 4/29/24 at 10:24pm
bwaylyric said: "MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I'm most perplexed by trying to predict Best Book of a Musical. Other than Suffs...I really didn't love ANY book this season. Are we really to understand that Hell's Kitchen is getting a nomination for BOOK?? (The book can be summed up as the main character saying "and then this happened? I felt this way. And then this happened. And it was alright. And then this happened..."). Every single person is predicting it and I DONT get it. But I also can't really come up with a good five. Will they go for the unconventional Illinoise? The brutal Days of Wine and Roses? Will they look past some structural quibbles with The Notebook, The Outsiders, and Water for Elephants and be won over by their emotion?"
And yet Jagged Little Pill won best book"
Comparing anything to the COVID Tonys isn't really fair though. Jagged Little Pill beat Moulin Rouge and Tina and that was it...
Posted: 4/29/24 at 10:27pm
This year's ceremony is going to generate lower ratings than the COVID Tonys, and that's right about where the comparisons stop.
Posted: 4/29/24 at 10:52pm
PREDICTING: Multiple nominations for Tommy and Merrily We Roll Along.
Posted: 4/29/24 at 11:34pm
I think we're going to see LOTS of nominees in lots of categories - The Tony's attempt to boost some shows - but in actuality it will just diminish the value of the nominations if everyone is named.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 12:04am
RUkiddingme said: "I think we're going to see LOTS of nominees in lots of categories - The Tony's attempt to boost some shows - but in actuality it will just diminish the value of the nominations if everyone is named."
You know there are rules that determine the number of nominees, right? It's not just up to the admin. I suppose there's nothing legally binding because it's just an awards show (anybody know that for sure?). But, I highly doubt they're messing with stuff.
If we get extra nominees (and I think we will get a lot of them), it's because it's such a competitive year and there are ties. Near-ties (when it's within a few votes) count as ties, so it's not hard for it to happen. With so many shows opening in such a condensed window, it's also likely a lot of nominators couldn't see everything and had to drop out, which also increases likelihood of ties.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 12:34am
Somehow I don’t agree with that. I don’t believe they are as democratic as they claim.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 12:48am
Apparently only 45 out of 60 nominators qualified to cast a ballot
Posted: 4/30/24 at 4:46am
Broadway Flash said: "Somehow I don’t agree with that. I don’t believe they are as democratic as they claim."
Then why do you care or bother commenting on these threads? You whine about the Tonys but really want your boy Casey Likes to be nominated, which is hilarious.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 6:46am
NYTimes: The Three Shows I’m Pulling for in the Tony Award Nominations https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04/24/opinion/thepoint/tony-award-nominations-songwriting?unlocked_article_code=1.oU0.2V1j.97vPYRA4ajjb
NYTimes: Broadway Opened 12 Shows in 9 Days. Here’s What That Looked Like.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/30/theater/broadway-openings-the-wiz-cabaret.html?unlocked_article_code=1.oU0.5lAR.PCVQ4PeYOqnL
Posted: 4/30/24 at 7:18am
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Wow, Greg Evans (Deadline) is yet another journalist super strong on Lempicka...and I don't think I buy it. Eden could still get in, and there's a sliver of a chance for score because of the memorable songs. I just don't see it landing anywhere else given the reactions to it."
I'm glad I'm not the only one who's pro-Lempicka. It's my favorite out of the shows I've seen this year.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 7:55am
BoringBoredBoard40 said: "Apparently only 45 out of 60 nominators qualified to cast a ballot"
I think it's probably less. The website lists 44, but that was as of 11/3/23. With this April onslaught, I'm guessing more dropped out. https://www.tonyawards.com/about/administration/
Posted: 4/30/24 at 8:08am
This is a terrible system. Such a small pool should not be deciding nominations for all categories. They should do something like the Oscars where each branch (or a nominating committee from each branch) votes on nominations on respective categories.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 4:05pm
For anyone else who uses it, GoldDerby’s prediction center is now open for the Tonys.
Seems there’s a bit of a disconnect in a few of the early odds there compared to what people are saying here.
Posted: 4/30/24 at 4:49pm
Do the Tony voters only get to pick one in each category or do they have the preferential (ranked) voting system like they do with the Oscars?
