Posted: 9/5/21 at 10:32am
I wish the film well, I’d love for it to be terrific, but the reality is that this is a very very crowded year for the Oscars, and the likelihood of a Best Picture nom for DEH are extremely low (even if it is terrific). It just doesn’t have the scope/grandeur/costumes to make it in against the formidable competition (if you’re following Venice and Telluride and soon TIFF, there is already an onslaught of films garnering great reviews, all of which have that scope/grandeur/costumes thing going on). If by some miracle DEH could have been released in the extended qualifying period for 2020, it’d be a different story, a much different story. Musicals-wise this year, expect West Side Story and to some degree Cyrano. (I don’t think In The Heights will get a single nom; tick tick boom, like DEH, is “small” and unless its reviews are over the top, I see little hope for it either).
For DEH, I anticipate a Best Song nom, somewhat very likely a best supporting actress nom for either Adams or Moore. Unless Ben gets across the board raves of a “a legendary performance of all time” level [on Broadway, it was], he doesn’t have the slightest chance for a nomination. Will Smith, Benedict Cumberbatch and likely Peter Dinklage are already locks for nominations. You’ve got Denzel on his way, plus the PTA Soggy Bottom film, plus Bradley Cooper, Leo, Joaquin, and Adam Driver for Gucci. It’s an insanely packed year. [edit: I forgot Nicolas Cage for Pig, and he’s right up there for a mom]
Updated On: 9/5/21 at 10:32 AM