Expert Tony predictions

[_IrisTInkerbell]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:20am

 I looked for a similar topic but couldn't find one. A place to collect all the expert/reviewer Tony predictions as they are coming in.

Here is what's already up on Goldderby: http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/experts/tony-awards-2015/musical.html

And Ben Brentley's predictions from today's NYT: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/10/theater/theaterspecial/the-tony-award-nominations-should-be.html?_r=0

Anything else already published?

[tazber]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:23am

I will be shocked if AAIP wins over Fun Home.

 

[tazber]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:25am

Gold derby does nothing to clarify any of the close races. There's no consensus.

 

It's an amazingly open contest this year.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:31am

^And some thought last year's race was wide open which I found very hard to believe. The majority of last year's winners were expected (Gentleman's Guide, All the Way, Hedwig, Bryan Cranston, Audra McDonald, Neil Patrick Harris, Jessie Mueller, James Monroe Iglehart, Mark Rylance, Bridges, etc.) with only a few surprises thrown in (A Raisin in the Sun).

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:33am

Wow, Brantley's predictions actaully shock me. 

[broadwaysfguy]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:35am

thanks for posting this! an incredibly close and exciting year in so many categories-Fun Home should win the most awards and best musical IMO, although An American in Paris was also extraordinary.

[vfd88]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:38am

How can he predict American in Paris if he thinks the only other major category it's going to win is Best Director? I will also be shocked if Fun Home doesn't win.

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:42am

Brantley's picks surprise me too!

Except for Best Musical. I would not be shocked if AiP wins over the superior Fun Home. In fact I wouldn't be surprise if Fun Home only won two acting (Cerveris and Kuhn or Sydney) and book and score.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:47am

Brantley was really afraid of offending one of his pets.  He didn't pick between Kelli and Kristin for the SHOULD win, which makes me roll my eyes a bit.  C'mon.  If you're a voter, for whom are you voting?  You can't pick 2.

Also, someone should inform him that John Cariani was not eligible in the Featured category.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:48am

Can't say I agree with Brantley's predictions at all.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:52am

"thanks for posting this! an incredibly close and exciting year in so many categories-Fun Home should win the most awards and best musical IMO, although An American in Paris was also extraordinary."

 Well I don't think it's expected to win acting awards (though Fairchild COULD pull the upset over Brian and Michael), it's not eligible for Score, it's not going to win Book (one of its weaker parts), and the other award it's expected to win is Choreography, which Brantley didn't include on his list.  He also didn't include design awards, some of which American in Paris might pick up.

[dramamama611]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:53am

I LOVE all the Annaleigh Ashford love & predictions!   I was suprised YCTIWY got so few noms.

[tazber]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:53am

Is Brantley a voter? I thought all critics were kicked out of the Tony voting.

Brantley also picked Matilda and Lucky Guy last year.

So I'm pretty sure this give Fun Home the lock.

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:55am

^That was two years ago.

[neonlightsxo]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:57am

Didn't Brantley pick Beautiful for the win last year?

Brantley and Isherwood are not voters. They do not belong to the NY Drama Critics' Circle (http://www.dramacritics.org/) the members of which are voters. I think it's a Times ethics thing.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 10:59am

"Is Brantley a voter? I thought all critics were kicked out of the Tony voting."

 No.  That's why I said "IF" you're a voter, who are you picking?  I want to know who he would vote for if he had the opportunity. Cop out answer.

[tazber]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:02am

"^That was two years ago."

Last year he picked Beautiful and Act One.

So he's usually wrong.

 

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:07am

^They were also Michael Riedel's predictions.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:07am

Speaking of ACT ONE, when the hell is that going to be on PBS?!

[tazber]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:12am

"^They were also Michael Riedel's predictions."

I don't ever pay attention to Riedel's predictions.

But if those were his picks too, then Fun Home should go ahead and start putting WINNER! BEST MUSCIAL on their advertising.

 

[doodlenyc]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:15am

Lucky Guy? Really?

 

Gold Derby's are all over the place. Way too much Something Rotten in their predictions. Who are those predictors, anyway?

[QueenAlice]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:16am

Well, those road voters surely will be more hot to trot for PARIS over FUN HOME, but I do hope FUN HOME can take it. It's a different kind of artistic triumph but I think really deserving. Brave new Musicals like this should (and need) the support of Tony Awards.

[Kad]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:34am

The Tonys are either an obvious prediction (ie Book of Mormon) or rather difficult to predict (ie Raisin in the Sun's haul last year).

But Riedel couldn't predict rain during a hurricane. And, honestly, Brantley isn't much more accurate.

Unlike the Academy Awards, which has scores of precursors of similar (if not overlapping) voting bodies, the Tonys have basically no comparable precursor awards by which you can tell voting trends and favorites.

Updated On: 5/7/15 at 11:34 AM

[MegInManhattan]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:41am

"Also, someone should inform him that John Cariani was not eligible in the Featured category."

 And he listed Danza for leading for which he was not eligible. I think he took some liberties overall since he also included off-Broadway.

Interesting choices. I feel that AAIP is a great show/ballet, but Fun Home is clearly the superior Musical.

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:45am

"How can he predict American in Paris if he thinks the only other major category it's going to win is Best Director? I will also be shocked if Fun Home doesn't win."

I wouldn't be shocked if either Fun Home or American in Paris wins best musical.

But as to how Brantley can predict American in Paris will win best musical and, in addition, only best director, that's far from unlikely.  

Besides the fact that it doesn't have an original score to be nominated for, several shows have won best musical without winning best book or score, and some shows have won best musical while not winning a lot of other tony's.

42nd Street (not eligible for score, lost book to Woman of the Year, and only won one other Tony, for choreography)
Ain't Misbehavin' (not eligible for either book or score which went to On the Twentieth Century)
Jerome Robbins' Broadway (had no original book or score; no book or score awards given that year)
Crazy for You (lost book to Falsettos, not eligible for score, which also went to Falsettos; won just two other tonys for costumes and choreography)
Fosse (not eligible for either book or score, with those awarded to Parade; only other tony's were for orchestration and lighting)
Thoroughly Modern Millie (lost book and score to Urinetown)
Contact (that year best book went to The Dead, best score to Aida)
Jersey Boys (not eligible for score, lost book to Drowsy Chaperone)
Phantom (lost book and score to Into the Woods)

Updated On: 5/7/15 at 11:45 AM