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#26

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:49am

This reminds me of the 2009 race between Billy Elliot and Next to Normal.

Billy Elliot (which was the juggernaut) was the big musical adaptation of a classic Academy Award Nominated film brought in over from London that had magnificent staging.

Next to Normal was the small original musical that transferred from off-Broadway to Broadway (with an out-of-town stop in between) that was more inventively staged.

This year's race is kind of similar.

An American in Paris is the big stage adaptation of the classic Academy Award-Winning film musical that tried out in France, which also has magnificent staging.

Fun Home is the small musical adaptation of a graphic novel which also transferred from off-Broadway to Broadway that's more inventively staged.

The main difference this year is that it's more of a horse race.

#27

Totally agree QueenAlice. I have this sinking feeling road voters will vote for AAIP but I really hope FH will take it. Brantley is on point with the Curious Incident, Annaleigh Ashford mentions and callouts for Constellations (also, nobody's surprised about the Honeymoon in Vegas + Side Show love I'm sure.)

Two things:

- Cariani, as someone pointed out earlier, was in the Leading category

- It's "Helen" not "Melen" Mirren. Geez.

Finally, I really don't get the love for OTT. What a boring musical, without any impactful numbers (NYNY is frankly not all that, especially outside of Broadway.) But that's my personal opinion.

#28

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 11:56am

I don't think AMERICAN IN PARIS is quite the juggernaut that BILLY ELLIOT was though. Nothing was going to de-rail BILLY.

PARIS seems a little more vulnerable to me. Perhaps this time the smaller,artistic triumph will prevail. It's a nail-biter!

#29

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:01pm

I think Paris will win...in much the same way Billy Elliott beat next to normal. (I think Fun Home will take book and score, however.) Remember...next to normal went on to run a lot longer than expected and recouped its investment-and defied tremendous odds by losing that Tony for best musical. I think that could unfold here-the performance on the Tonys and the show's box office in the weeks immediately following will tell us whether a similar pattern will be followed here.

Updated On: 5/7/15 at 12:01 PM

#30

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:08pm

Jeffrey, I think this year will be more like Crazy for You vs. Falsettos. The latter won book and score but the big Gershwin show won best musical.

#31

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:12pm

And while I don't think it will prevail, lets not forget that SOMETHING ROTTEN has its supporters as well, and it will take some votes from those that believe PARIS to be too staid and FUN HOME too esoteric.

#32

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:12pm

Updated On: 7/22/20 at 12:12 PM

#33

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:17pm

It's possible Something Rotten's presence will be more detrimental to American in Paris than Fun Home; voters seeking a more commercial option will be choosing between those two shows.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#34

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:19pm

I don't think we can compare this race to 09. In 2009, people equally loved N2N and Billy Elliot. I don't think that's at all the case.

I agree with jstoneridge08. Everyone will agree and tell you Fun Home is the better musical. It's no contest on quality. But will determine the win is if the voters care about how commercial it is. Billy Elliot was more commercial, but also, an excellently crafted musical. American in Paris is much thinner.

#35

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:29pm

Brantley's predictions here are bit surprising especially that he choose ON THE TWENTIETH CENTURY that "will win" the Tony when others, and myself, think that THE KING AND I will win.

#36

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:37pm

I do agree with his On the Town should win though.

....but the world goes 'round

#37

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:42pm

I agree, to me it's either ON THE TOWN or THE KING AND I to get the Best Musical Revival Tony.

#38

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 12:49pm

I would be shocked if The King and I loses revival given that it's now an open run and will be touring.

#39

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:30pm

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/10/theater/theaterspecial/the-tony-nominations-should-be.html?ref=theater

Isherwood's predictions are up. His AAIP love is a bit out of control...

And, as others have said, these predictions are usually not very accurate and should be taken with a grain of salt...or a few grains.

Updated On: 5/7/15 at 01:30 PM

#40

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:37pm

I'm sensing Isherwood really isn't keen on FUN HOME. So let's thank the Theatre Gods (likely Ethel Merman and David Merrick) that he wasn't the gent hired to review the production.

Neither one of these blokes at the Times is very good at predicting.

#41

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:37pm

Other than his picking it for SHOULD win Best Book (that's slightly crazy), I don't see what's so out of control with it. I'm actually more bothered by his Hand to God love and his Victoria Clark SHOULD win over everyone else.

#42

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:38pm

Wow, he must have hated Fun Home.

....but the world goes 'round

#43

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:40pm

I really can't see many of his predictions materializing.

It's telling that the two most prominent theatre critics are so out of step with the predictions of most people, industry or otherwise.

"...everyone finally shut up, and the audience could enjoy the beginning of the Anatevka Pogram in peace."

#44

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:42pm

^ this.

#45

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 1:47pm

These predictions are just seem too far fetched for me. Isherwood's American In Paris and Side Show love is a little much. Also, his lack of pretty much any recognition for Fun Home is little odd...

"There’s nothing quite like the power and the passion of Broadway music. "

#46

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 2:03pm

According to Isherwood, Fun Home should win nothing. Wow.

On Tony night, he and Brantley are either going to look unusually insightful or way out of step.

#47

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 2:07pm

Both seem off the mark this year.

#48

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 2:24pm

I found Isherwood's list especially peculiar, as he gave such a lukewarm review to The Last Ship.

#49

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 2:35pm

"Both seem off the mark this year. "

They kind of have been ever since the entire press was excluded off as Tony voters (as well as Michael Riedel). Since then, everyone pretty much assumed that the remaining Tony voters were only going to vote for the more commercially viable show. Though two of the last three winners for Best Musical (Once and Gentleman's Guide) beat the more commercially viable shows (Newsies and Beautiful).

Updated On: 5/7/15 at 02:35 PM

#50

Expert Tony predictions

Posted: 5/7/15 at 2:38pm

"They kind of have been ever since the entire press was excluded off as Tony voters (as well as Michael Riedel). "

That is completely incorrect. The members of the Drama Critics Circle ARE Tony voters. The Times critics are not members of that for ethical reasons (I think it's NYT policy.) I am sure Isherwood and Brantley are on the first night list and therefore get to see everything.

Jeffrey: http://www.playbill.com/news/article/tony-awards-extend-votes-to-members-of-new-york-drama-critics-circle-167123

Updated On: 5/7/15 at 02:38 PM

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