There are lots of people that can tell you what point in line is "safe", where the line turns "questionable", and where you have no chance. If YOU haven't done it, how would you be able to know. (Unless, of course, you are pretty close to the front.)
VERY few people win the lottery -- your best bet is indeed the line. Also, if someone in your group wins, they won't be anywhere near you seating wise. (unless you have phenomenal luck.)
If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it?
These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.