Next to close?

Kimberly Akimbo, How to Dance in Ohio, and Harmony all seem to be the most in danger of closing.

I agree How To Dance in Ohio, Kimberly Akimbo, and Harmony… possibly Beautiful Noise as well. The rest I anticipate (with the exception of limited runs) to be open at the time of Tonys

There's no telling how much notice a show gives with a closing notice. It will largely depend on if the theater has a tenant lined up to get in there, amongst other things.

Mid - Jan? I think you've got about a 50/50 chance. Which is not a helpful guess... I'd suggest choosing your back up, so can move quickly, just in case.

Some Like It Hot

If Kimberly is still running by Spring, I’d be surprised

My parents got the 3 of us tickets (upcoming, dates TBD) to How To Dance In Ohio for Christmas. Really, really hope they can hold out for a while (I'm autistic so eager to see the representation) but I would be lying if I said the numbers didn't worry me...

Also, for anyone saying Hadestown, they've been in $700,000+ range, give or take, with capacity in the 90s, average ticket price around $100. Granted, I don't know what the operating costs are, but I think that (for now at least) Hadestown is just fine.

I think Hadestown is okay for now and will at least give a chance for Ani DiFranco to see what numbers she can pull. Since it's already recouped, they could probably stay afloat for a bit, and they just released a new block of tickets too, which I doubt would mean they're in danger of closing within the next 2 months at least.

The holiday numbers for Harmony and How to Dance in Ohio are looking pretty dismal. I'd be curious to see how much of the audience for Ohio is using the $50 promotion, but either way the capacity percentage for both shows are scarily low, and it seems like if they can't find their audience within the next month or so, they'd have to pack it up.

No one’s mentioned Sweeney Todd yet? That one’s probably gone by early April at the latest (but at least it’s recouped already).

BoringBoredBoard40 said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "No one’s mentionedSweeney Toddyet? That one’s probably gone by early April at the latest (but at least it’s recouped already)."

Sweeney Todd isn't going anywhere before Labor day"

Sweeney Todd is closing on May 5th after Aaron and Sutton’s contracts are up. There’s a tenant for the Lunt lined up for Fall 2024.

Also, your regular reminder that shows releasing new blocks of tickets means zero for its longevity. I think Hadestown may eke it out until next Labor Day, but that’ll be a stretch.

The sure bets to close are definitely How to Dance and Harmony. Whether they do so in January or try to see what they can make during Broadway week and close in February remains to be seen, but both the Barrymore and Belasco will have empty stages ready to welcome a new tenant by March. It’s unfortunate that the “timeliness” of Harmony is likely a major factor in keeping people away from it. That combined with its poor reviews is a recipe for a short run.

How to Dance is just a lesson in inexperience. It’s like once Prince passed, they didn’t think to involve *anyone* who’s done this before on Broadway from producing, designers, the vast majority of the cast. They seem to have made a lot of changes through previews, but still what is on stage feels like a first preview. At the end of the day, we want new voices and fresh takes on Broadway, but you're still asking audiences to pay more than $100 per person in most cases (albeit not in How to Dance’s case given they’ve had to do a new discount scheme every week it seems like just to move the seats they’ve been successful in selling). If your product does not live up to the value for money people are paying, it’s toast.

See if i was to guess they will run one more “star” combo. And close in September.


I believe the same approach will be taken With Cabaret. Eddie will wrap in September and they’ll do two more combos.

EDSOSLO858 said: "Cabaretcan (and will) just recycle past London leads. They should be fine for years despite the insane price tag the production has."

As far as star power goes, the London production has not cast anyone as a replacement who is even remotely comparable to Redmayne/Buckley. None of those people would sell out the Broadway production for weeks at a time unless they have a major career turnaround prior to replacing.

BoringBoredBoard40 said: "OhHiii said: "BoringBoredBoard40 said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "No one’s mentionedSweeney Toddyet? That one’s probably gone by early April at the latest (but at least it’s recouped already)."

Sweeney Todd isn't going anywhere before Labor day"

Sweeney Todd is closing on May 5th after Aaron and Sutton’s contracts are up. There’s a tenant for the Lunt lined up for Fall 2024.


So the theater is going to just sit empty for four months right before summer, makes total sense

"

This happens quite literally ALL the time. Every year.