Posted: 2/16/25 at 8:03am
Do we think these will be the two frontrunners? I really don't know which one I'd pick. I'd probably give best score to Operation Mincemeat and best book to Maybe Happy Ending, but I don't know who should take the top award.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 9:40am
I think Maybe Happy Ending has a good shot if it continues its upward trajectory; it has appeal for a lot of different cross-sections of audience members, including the "artsy" lovers (which has helped shows in the past with the voters), at least compared to Mincemeat which probably won't garner that appreciation. I agree with you on score/book. If you were comparing direction, I'd probably go Mincemeat (assuming it hasn't taken a hit from London) and also easily give it an award for Jak Malone.
Dead Outlaw is the wild card here I think—it's an original American musical, which MHE and Mincemeat are not, with an acclaimed off-Broadway run, and an award-winning creative team.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 10:25am
It's Operation Mincemeat, Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, Death Becomes Her, and Boop are going to be your Best Musical Nominees
(Boop could be replaced with RWHC, but it's between those first three) I think Mincemeat will take it, but let's see what the critics decide to think of them first
Posted: 2/16/25 at 10:45am
GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "It's Operation Mincemeat, Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, Death Becomes Her, and Boop are going to be your Best Musical Nominees
(Boop could be replaced with RWHC, but it's between those first three) I think Mincemeat will take it, but let's see what the critics decide to think of them first"
I think SMASH will be in the top 5 musical nominees but not sure which one it would replace. Maybe Boop?
Posted: 2/16/25 at 10:55am
Musigamist said: "Dead Outlaw is the wild card here I think—it's an original American musical, which MHE and Mincemeat are not, with an acclaimed off-Broadway run, and an award-winning creative team."
This is the last shoe to drop for best musical in my mind. If voters follow historical patterns then MHE will win as it "needs" the tony bump more than Mincemeat to tour and continue on. But, Dead Outlaw could usurp it and is probably more relatable for the American tour audience.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 10:59am
BdwyFan said: "GottaGetAGimmick420 said: "It's Operation Mincemeat, Dead Outlaw, Maybe Happy Ending, Death Becomes Her, and Boop are going to be your Best Musical Nominees
(Boop could be replaced with RWHC, but it's between those first three) I think Mincemeat will take it, but let's see what the critics decide to think of them first"
I think SMASH will be in the top 5 musical nominees but not sure which one it would replace. Maybe Boop?"
I considered Boop/Smash, I just think I need to see this post-workshop revamped book to be a believer. That workshop really turned me off, as a longtime Smash (TV show) fan...
Posted: 2/16/25 at 11:17am
David Yazbek has a history of bad timing. I'm afraid he won't have a happy ending this award season either.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 11:33am
I don't remember any songs from Maybe Happy Ending...
Posted: 2/16/25 at 11:48am
I don't think we should underestimate the strong possibility that the three smaller, more niche "artsy" shows (Mincemeat, MHE, Outlaw) end up cancelling one another out among voters, paving the way for something like Death Becomes Her to win. The Tony voters are still somewhat divided among wanting the bigger, old-fashioned shows and the smaller, more artistic shows (using that term very vaguely as we all know there are many "bigger" shows that have strong artistic merit and many "smaller" shows that do not, but you get the gist here). Obviously the Tonys have skewed more towards the former in recent years, but that's often because there's only one really strong show that fits that category each year.
So I have no doubts that collectively those 3 shows will get more votes than Death Becomes Her. But could easily see a situation where it's 20% Mincemeat, 20% Outlaw, 20% Happy Ending and 30% Death Becomes Her (10% to whatever 5th nominee), allowing DBH to come out on top.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 12:07pm
I haven't seen Mincemeat yet, but of the shows I've seen so far this season, I would easily vote for Death Becomes Her before Maybe Happy Ending (which I quite liked).
Posted: 2/16/25 at 12:27pm
Right now - I’d guess the nominees are
Dead Outlaw
Death Becomes Her
Maybe Happy Ending
Operation Mincemeat
One of Buena Vista/Real Women/Smash/Boop
Personally, I’d vote for Mincemeat (having now seen it here last night and in London last summer) but haven’t seen Outlaw or the others that haven’t opened.
I do think the narratives will be key.
Updated On: 2/16/25 at 12:27 PM
Posted: 2/16/25 at 12:40pm
Musigamist said: "Dead Outlaw is the wild card here I think—it's an original American musical, which MHE and Mincemeat are not, with an acclaimed off-Broadway run, and an award-winning creative team."
This is such a weird comparison. You make it sound like the Tony voters are some flag-swinging, bald eagle-breeding, hotdog-eating group of people. MHE may have premiered in Korea but 1/2 of its writing team is American-born, as is its entire creative and lead-producing team. Frankly, if there is to be any kind of "controversy" to be manufactured around MHE, one could argue that the Korean aspects (and individuals) have been minimized for Broadway in favor of more general "Asian" or "multicultural" people/ideas.
I haven't seen OPERATION MINCEMEAT but "the anti-nazi musical" could be potent in 2025 (and I can't believe that's still potent but here we are.............) It feels like it's more "about" something than MHE, which is exquisitely-constructed charm & romance.
In any case, it feels like one of the stronger Best Musical races in recent memory.
Updated On: 2/16/25 at 12:40 PM
Posted: 2/16/25 at 12:59pm
I do think there's a 3-way situation of votes canceling each other out, but I believe that only benefits MHE. If the tone of MHE isn't winning for a voter, they're choosing between THREE corpse comedies in Dead Outlaw, Mincemeat, and DBH, all of which will have their own fans. Much as I loved Dead Outlaw and look forward to Mincemeat, MHE's critical consensus of "best new musical in years" is going to be hard to beat unless all the anti-MHE voters coalesce around one other option. I don't see that happening, and same situation goes for score, I think — book could be a bit more competitive, but I'd still bet on MHE for sweeping...
Posted: 2/16/25 at 1:10pm
ElephantLoveMedley said: "I haven't seenMincemeatyet, but of the shows I've seen so far this season, I would easily vote forDeath Becomes Her before Maybe Happy Ending (which I quite liked)."
I'm glad I'm not a Tony voter because those are very hard to compare. The ensemble work in Death Becomes Her is fantastic and that show is a fun romp, MHE is a smaller and more emotional and intimate musical. I enjoyed both and would recommend both.
I haven't seen Mincemeat and Dead Outlaw but tentatively hope to see both. My spouse saw Mincemeat during a work trip to London and loved it.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 1:14pm
MHE is charming, but Operation Mincemeat is brilliant.
I haven't seen the others in contention, but I'm rooting for Mincemeat 100%.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 1:14pm
I think this will be another year in which there isn't a sweep by a frontrunner show. I could very easily imagine Best Director, Score, Book, and Musical going in separate directions here.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:18pm
Right now, I think Mincemeat is the frontrunner and Dead Outlaw is the biggest threat to it. I would put Maybe Happy Ending in 3rd at the moment with the category filled out by some combination of Death Becomes Her (likely), Boop, Smash, Real Women Have Cutves and maybe Buena Vista.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:31pm
Dead Outlaw or MHE. Zero chance of another option at this point.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:37pm
Mr. Wormwood said: "Right now, I think Mincemeat is the frontrunner and Dead Outlaw is the biggest threat to it. I would put Maybe Happy Ending in 3rd at the moment with the category filled out by some combination of Death Becomes Her (likely), Boop, Smash, Real Women Have Cutves and maybe Buena Vista."
VERY much agree.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:38pm
I've seen all three, though Mincemeat in London and Dead Outlaw off Broadway, but my pick would be Maybe Happy Ending for the overall package. Admittedly, while I liked both Mincemeat and Outlaw, I didn't like them quite to the hype of everyone else on this board so I guess it just depends how they play with everyone else at large (both of them in my mind are also solidly off Broadway shows so I look forward to seeing them again in their Broadway houses).
If I were to choose, I'd do MHE for Best Musical, Dead Outlaw for Best Score, and Operation Mincemeat for Best Director (though I could go Arden for MHE here too). Book is really a toss up to me as I think they all have some flaws, but Dead Outlaw might come out slightly stronger in that category (or who knows, maybe that'll go to Death Becomes Her). But overall I'm just really excited to have such a great Broadway season.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:45pm
pagereynolds said: "Dead Outlaw or MHE. Zero chance of another option at this point."
🤣
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:46pm
pagereynolds said: "Dead Outlaw or MHE. Zero chance of another option at this point."
Nah. It's a race between Mincemeat and Outlaw. MHE is a cute robot rom com ( that some say is moving? we weren't. ). The book/score and SHOW itself don't compare. The PRODUCTION of MHE is flashy, and family friendly, but doesn't compare to the creative intelligence of these new original musicals who have had only a single developing director on the material/show (and no other directors/productions to draw from, that MHE has). Mincemeat and Outlaw, as shows, are more creative, difficult and collaborative (mincemeat) material with unique productions requiring less flash to excel or hide a flimsy, done before, plot.
Updated On: 2/16/25 at 02:46 PM
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:48pm
CoffeeBreak said: "pagereynolds said: "Dead Outlaw or MHE. Zero chance of another option at this point."
Nope. It's a race between Mincemeat and Outlaw. MHE is a cute robot rom com ( that some say is moving? we weren't. ). The book/score and SHOW itself don't compare. The PRODUCTIONof MHE is flashy, and family friendly, butdoesn't compare to the creative intelligenceof these neworiginal musicals who have had only a singledeveloping director on the material/show(and no other directors/productions to draw from, that MHE has). Mincemeat and Outlaw are more creative, difficult and collaborative (mincemeat) material with unique productions."
Mincemeat has no name recognition and is coming in with zero buzz. We'll see.
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:52pm
Zero buzz? Just Olivier awards- including Best Musical. It's already selling MUCH better than MHE did at this point in their run. It probably has the most buzz followed by, the biggest winner of awards off-Broadway last year, Dead Outlaw. MHE had no buzz previewing in the fall - grew it and peaked. MHE barely happened due to costs that it's barely breaking even now.
MHE is the new safe family tourist trap musical. Dead Outlaw, of the new musicals, will "need a win the most" do to "lack of name" while 'not playing it family friendly safe' creatively.
The title of this thread needs a change.
Updated On: 2/28/25 at 02:52 PM
Posted: 2/16/25 at 2:57pm
pagereynolds said: "Mincemeat has no name recognition and is coming in with zero buzz. We'll see."
looking at what’s available for next week on telecharge I reckon Mincemeat might gross well over double what MHE did in its first full week, despite having 250 fewer seats, and might not be far off the ATP MHE current achieves. Whatever ends up happening it evidently has far from zero name recognition/buzz out the gate.
Updated On: 2/16/25 at 02:57 PM
