This debate is starting to get smaller. Now the question is whether the show would have closed Sept. 3 or limped along to the end of the year?
I can only go by reported facts, statements by people with fewer reasons to lie, and reasonable deductions (which obviously include a little opinion and speculation):
Last year - Josh Groban hired to play Pierre, show to open at Imperial with major interior redesign. Groban, who I admit I didn't know much about at the time, is a bestselling music star. But his audience is decidedly mainstream and more conservative. He's an odd fit for an avant garde show like Great Comet, and he changes expectations for the show. It's now seen by many people as a star vehicle, because Groban is a star.
November - The show opens to mostly positive reviews. Groban is a draw, but producer Howard Kagan has trouble filling the seats whenever he's out. One Riedel report has him essentially begging disappointed Groban fans to give the show a chance. (I'm not a big fan of Riedel, but I have little reason to think he was making up this anecdote.)
December - Dear Evan Hansen opens to very positive reviews, especially for Ben Platt. The show, with its modern-day setting and teenage protagonist, is perfectly pitched to its audience (which includes parents of teenagers) and becomes an immediate hit. Opinion: At that moment, and in the two months that followed, it should have been clear that a Best Musical Tony was probably unlikely. And that's not counting any surprises from the spring shows. And there was one, in the form of Come From Away.
February - With great fanfare, Kagan announces the hiring of Onaodowan, who is known to the public only for his dual role as Mulligan and Madison in the original cast of Hamilton. According to the Paulson story, director Rachel Chavkin recommended him based on their previous experience working together. I remember thinking at the time, long before seeing the show or knowing that I would, that it seemed like a strange choice. Outside of Hamilton, he's an unknown, and nobody saw Hamilton for Onaodowan even if they liked him. He's only hired for a couple of months anyway, making me think he's some sort of placeholder for a bigger box office draw. Main point: Kagan didn't hire a star to replace Groban as Pierre, either because he couldn't find one, or because he was too confident in his show's prospects.
May - Tony nominations announced. But in the reporting, it's clear that the Best Musical race is between Dear Evan Hansen and Come From Away, as has been obvious for a while. Great Comet, aside from getting the most nominations, is a total afterthought. In June, it doesn't win, and gets shut out of everything but the technical categories.
July - Groban leaves the show, and everything goes to hell. In the midst of the whole Patinkin/Onoaodowan flap, creator Dave Malloy says the Patinkin move was being made because the show's advance sales were dreadful after pop star Ingrid Michaelson left her brief run in mid-August and that the show was in danger of closing and might not have a future anyway. Aside from defending himself against allegations of racism, why would Malloy lie about that?
Further, Patinkin was going to be a short-term solution. He would have been in the show for three weeks. Even if his three weeks sold as well as Groban's final three weeks in the show, how would that have helped the show after Labor Day? Some people would have come out to see Patinkin, and a percentage would have decided they liked the show too, but that's it.
There is no reason to think the producers would have been so desperate to get Patinkin for three weeks if they had a box office draw coming in after Labor Day. The show could have survived three bad weeks. And if they waited until July to try to find a star, when they knew for months that the show wasn't getting the only Tony that mattered and wasn't even the second-biggest new musical of the season, that would be extremely irresponsible. No wonder the investors want an audit.
For the sake of this discussion, I'm leaving out the actions of Onaodowan. Some of it is backstage gossip that no one would have heard or cared about if the public relations disaster hadn't happened. I have my own personal views on some of the public statements made, but none of this would have mattered so much if the musical wasn't so vulnerable.
I agree that the show almost certainly wouldn't be closing Sept. 3 without the whole mess. But how much longer would it have lasted, given its high expenses? How impatient would the investors have been if the show started losing money again, when they only had gotten 15 percent back in the first place? The controversy appears to have helped the box office during Onaodowan's last week, and it's certainly helping now, as people come out to see a much-lauded show that's closing (or to revisit it). But if Onaodowan was still in the show, and nothing had happened, Malloy tells us the box office was going to fall off a cliff. And that was a crisis, because the show had no savior who was running to its rescue. The "TV star" was clearly not going to be a magic solution or the producers wouldn't have panicked. Kagan admits in the Times story, and Malloy has said on Twitter, that Great Comet needs a star to succeed, to even survive.
They didn't have a star, and Great Comet wasn't a word-of-mouth hit. That's why the show is closing.
Updated On: 9/2/17 at 04:57 PM