So how does Wicked have a chance with how West Side tanked?- Page 2

[blaxx]

Posted: 12/13/21 at 8:42pm

The film will never have the success of the stage show, it's decades old, please. Lower your expectations.

[sng]

Posted: 12/13/21 at 11:55pm

WHY ARE PEOPLE STILL ACTING LIKE WE ARE NOT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PANDEMIC?

[unclevictor]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 12:43am

WSS hasn’t tanked. It’s been open for about 5 minutes. Calm the eff down. 

[HogansHero]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 1:24am

As the Times piece on the weak first weekend explains, musicals always need a long fuse. This one is getting one since Disney has locked it in through the holidays. Writing off now is just silly. Let's reconvene on the Monday after New Years.

[mailhandler777]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 2:13am

Do people not realize we are still in a pandemic? Had covid never happened all these movies would be making a ton. 

[henrikegerman]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 9:40am

First of all, not buying the West Side Tank meme. See Mailhandler's post above. 

Second, one can't compare a vehicle that is a world wide boffo hit youth two decades going strong youth magnet which is a sly and funny hymn to female friendship and underdog resilience still running on Broadway with a 60 year old classic tragic love story.

Third, the only thing the two musicals have in common is that they didn't win the Tony. 


 

https://forum.broadwayworld.com/editmessage.cfm?M=5301050&MID=1127111&boardid=0

Updated On: 12/14/21 at 09:40 AM

[joevitus]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 10:07am

I mean, WSS could go on to big box office. Titanic might be a template for that (word of mouth making a soft opening irrelevant). But generally, opening week box office determines everything.

The real issue is: it doesn't matter. Citizen Kane flopped. The Wizard of Oz did not make back its initial costs in first release. Many classic movies (Bringing Up Baby) didn't do so great in first run.

What matters is quality, and whether YOU liked this new WSS or will like the movie of Wicked (or Dear Evan Hanson or In the Heights, or whatever). Whether the box office or mass attendance supports your viewpoint is irrelevant. 

[Kad]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 10:26am

People's relationship to going to the movies has fundamentally changed over the pandemic. It was already changing before the pandemic, as streaming became more commonplace and ticket prices and concession prices rose. Unless it's a big event film, I think it's hard for folks to justify spending $30 to see a movie with some snacks. And if you've got a family, then you're looking at spending a small fortune.

And the pandemic just hastened this change. Even folks who are willing to go out to shows, bars, parties, etc. are more reluctant to go to the movies... because they can just wait and watch it at home, and sometimes now you don't even have to wait.

[rattleNwoolypenguin]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 10:52am

Yeah a lot of people are forgetting-movies were already dying before the pandemic.

The Movie Pass fiasco was a desperate attempt to get people to come back.

We all want movies to be a fun big thing again but people can accessibly get a great tv and or a great projector for their home.

VHS and to an extent DVD couldn't compete with the quality of a movie screen.

Well, now most things can.

And as people pointed out- they ARE expensive and people just way rather wait for it to pop up on their streaming. Especially families.

[JBellan87]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 12:23pm

"Ghostbusters Afterlife only made 46 million on its opening weekend. Considering how these big movies were making hundreds of millions on their opening weekends in 2019, this is not about disinterest, it’s about Covid. Everything is flopping."

Afterlife made $44 million opening weekend, domestic and I think it was like $60 million worldwide on a $70 million budget.  It made more than what Sony thought it was going to as well as it has legs as it's been staying in the top 3 for the past few weeks and is currently at $112 million domestic and $164 million worldwide, so it didn't flop.  Also just saying Venom 2 made $90 million opening weekend and Shang Chi made $75 million in it's opening weekend.

WSS has only been out for one weekend, but yeah it opened to $10 million on a $90 million dollar budget.  It's also still relatively new, but does have massive competition coming in the form of Spiderman, Matrix, Sing 2 and King's Man

[pmensky]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 12:37pm

JBellan87 said: ""Ghostbusters Afterlife only made 46 million on its opening weekend. Considering how these big movies were making hundreds of millions on their opening weekends in 2019, this is not about disinterest, it’s about Covid. Everything is flopping."

Afterlife made $44 million opening weekend, domestic and I think it was like $60 million worldwide on a $70 million budget. It made more than what Sony thought it was going to as well as it has legs as it's been staying in the top 3 for the past few weeks and is currently at $112 million domestic and $164 million worldwide, so it didn't flop. Also just saying Venom 2 made $90 million opening weekend and Shang Chi made $75 million in it's opening weekend.

WSS has only been out for one weekend, but yeah it opened to $10 million on a $90 million dollar budget. It's also still relatively new, but does have massive competition coming in the form of Spiderman, Matrix, Sing 2 and King's Man"

And Avengers Endgame made over 357 million domestically upon opening and is currently around 2.8 billion worldwide. My point was that the grosses were much higher pre-Covid. You can claim 164 million is not a flop, but it certainly is to movie studios who are counting those dollars and considering the future.

[n2nbaby]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 1:08pm

I loved the film, but unfortunately it is not “too early” to say that West Side Story tanked.

Yes, it will be in theaters for a bit and will have goodwill going into awards season, but for it to break even it needs to make around $250 million worldwide, which it has zero chance of doing so. I’m thinking it will likely end up around $55 million by the time it leaves theaters - and that is being optimistic. 

[RippedMan]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 1:41pm

We are about to start awards season and WSS is leading the pack at the Golden Globes and is expected to clean up at the Oscars as well, so it could just have a slow build and become a sleeper hit. 

[saxpower]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 1:44pm

How much do the movies make through streaming rights/cable airing/DVD/BluRay (yes some people, including myself, still buy them for the extras and so I can control when its avaiable for me to view)?  My understanding previously was that was a good chunk of the income. 

As others have said, lets see what happens in the coming weeks.   I agree, its not exactly a "Chrismasy" movie.  Then again, the tour of the prior Broadway revival came here around Christmas a few years ago and it occurred to me- no its not a happy/light show but the message of the piece (hate can only bring tragedy) does kinda fit in with the season. 

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 2:38pm

So.  Much.  Hand-wringing.

[Highland Guy]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 3:07pm

California COVID rates have risen since Thanksgiving, prompting Governor Newsom to reinstate mandatory indoor masking, no matter vaccination status.  The new mandate takes effect December 15 for at least one month.  No one in my circle is willing to risk their health by sitting side by side with strangers in a theater, masks or not.  Not now.  We're still in a global pandemic.  I would think attendance at movies is likely to diminish, certainly here in California.  

[Jeffrey Karasarides]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 3:16pm

RippedMan said: "We are about to start awards season and WSS is leading the pack at the Golden Globes and is expected to clean up at the Oscars as well, so it could just have a slow build and become a sleeper hit."

We'll see if the Golden Globes are gonna even be taken seriously this year given all the controversies surrounding them (which is why they're not going to be broadcast on TV). As for how the film could do in the long run, I think it’s possible for West Side Story to do similarly to both Bradley Cooper's remake of A Star is Born and Greta Gerwig's adaptation of Little Women where it’s nominated for Best Picture, but it’s more of a second tier contender and not taken seriously for the win because it's a retelling. Not to mention that Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture brought up an interesting point on a recent podcast. He thinks what could make West Side Story vulnerable is that if it were to win the Oscar for Best Picture, that could potentially encourage filmmakers/studio executives to want to make new film adaptations of classic stories that inspired other much lauded Best Picture winners such as Gone with the Wind, Lawrence of Arabia, or The Godfather.

[bwaylvsong1]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 10:32pm

Another reason WSS may not be selling as well as it could is that it’s a long movie, and it’s difficult for people to sit for almost three hours straight in a movie theatre (without a break) with a mask on.

[n2nbaby]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 10:35pm

bwaylvsong1 said: "Another reason WSS may not be selling as well as it could is that it’s a long movie, and it’s difficult for people to sit for almost three hours straight in a movie theatre (without a break) with a mask on."

It’s adorable you think the vast majority of people are wearing a mask in the movie theater. 

[bwaylvsong1]

Posted: 12/14/21 at 10:52pm

n2nbaby said: "bwaylvsong1 said: "Another reason WSS may not be selling as well as it could is that it’s a long movie, and it’s difficult for people to sit for almost three hours straight in a movie theatre (without a break) with a mask on."

It’s adorable you think the vast majority of people are wearing a mask in the movie theater."

Good point lol.  But believe me, I live in a Brooklyn “red zone” where 99% of people didn’t even wear a mask during the height of the pandemic when they were required to. Anyway, I’m just saying that the length of the movie could be a significant factor in its lack of financial success at this time.

[JBellan87]

Posted: 12/15/21 at 3:14pm

"And Avengers Endgame made over 357 million domestically upon opening and is currently around 2.8 billion worldwide. My point was that the grosses were much higher pre-Covid. You can claim 164 million is not a flop, but it certainly is to movie studios who are counting those dollars and considering the future."

Sony wasn't expecting it to make the amount it made for it's opening weekend, and in comparison the 2016 movie made a few million more at the box office than Afterlife did, but again Afterlife was made on a $70-$75 million dollar budget so at this point, Sony pretty much broke even with Afterlife.

[pmensky]

Posted: 12/15/21 at 3:59pm

JBellan87 said: ""And Avengers Endgame made over 357 million domestically upon opening and is currently around 2.8 billion worldwide. My point was that the grosses were much higher pre-Covid. You can claim 164 million is not a flop, but it certainly is to movie studios who are counting those dollars and considering the future."

Sony wasn't expecting it to make the amount it made for it's opening weekend, and in comparison the 2016 movie made a few million more at the box office than Afterlife did, but again Afterlife was made on a $70-$75 million dollar budget so at this point, Sony pretty much broke even with Afterlife."

You say this as if it’s totally fine if they broke even and the studios are totally cool with that. Yes, they know the movies they release in theaters are going to do poorly these days, the question here is will they make adjustments to what they produce in the future to account for current and future losses.

[jimmycurry01]

Posted: 12/15/21 at 7:06pm

$10 million during the opening weekend against a $100 million budget is a flop. It was an amazing movie in every sense, but it didn't sell. Yes, the pandemic is a major variable in its box office performance, and no one is pretending we are not in the midst of a pandemic.

Being in the midst of a pandemic doesn't change the fact that it didn't do well. You can say that it's only been five days, but opening weekend is the most important in the film industry. Sleeper hits are rare, and the opening weekend sets the trajectory for the film. All of our positive word-of-mouth would have to work a Greatest Showman sized miracle to make this even a modest hit.

Does this make me sad? Yes. Am I disappointed? Yes. Am I wise enough to call a spade a spade? Also, yes.

[Jmuep2]

Posted: 12/16/21 at 1:48am

Within Hollywood, the film’s opening weekend is definitely a disappointment, bordering on flop. There is still hope and the possibility that this could have legs like The Greatest Showman, but as others have pointed out here, this is a film for older audiences and they’re staying home. The film will pick up lots of Oscar nominations and that will help, but this doesn’t look to be on track to become a big financial hit. 
 

as for the original question, I don’t think it’s necessarily likely to derail Wicked being made simply because Universal has already announced it and invested a significant amount of money into its development. The real question is what this means for the movie musical after Wicked that isn’t as developed. What has become clear over the last year is the pandemic has sped up a trend that was already happening prior to Covid: audiences by and large were staying home for movies that weren’t based on comic books. If you look at the big openers this year, with the exception of a couple of animated films, almost everything has been Marvel or the like. 
 

I think the bigger question is how did Tick Tick Boom do for Netflix? How did Jamie or Cinderella do for Amazon? If these films do well in streaming, then that provides studios additional incentive to continue to make them (but possibly at a more controlled cost).

[mailhandler777]

Posted: 12/16/21 at 3:12am

n2nbaby said: "bwaylvsong1 said: "Another reason WSS may not be selling as well as it could is that it’s a long movie, and it’s difficult for people to sit for almost three hours straight in a movie theatre (without a break) with a mask on."

It’s adorable you think the vast majority of people are wearing a mask in the movie theater."

I saw it twice. Had my mask on both times. Had no issues. Only issue I had was I had to get up and go pee twice the first time.