BETTY22 said: "I have been trying t research what a TONY win means for a show.
Is there any scientific data? Such as a best musical win get's you 15% box office bump?"
I'm sure there is someone who could mine the data but I think there's so much fluctuation because of what a show has done before the Tonys.
Sometimes, a Tony for Best Musical can prevent a show from a likely imminent closing (think shows like Titanic, Gentlemen's Guide, Fun Home)
Other times, a show is already a huge hit so a Best Musical win doesn't necessarily mean a box office bump because it didn't need it (think shows like The Lion King, The Producers, Hamilton)
Other times, a show is a modest hit that really goes into the stratosphere for awhile after a Best Musical win (think shows like Avenue Q, Kinky Boots, Hadestown)
A Best Musical win can make all the difference for a struggling show. In 1997, Titanic & Steel Pier both opened to mixed critical reviews and modest box office numbers. Steel Pier received 11 Tony nominations and Titanic received 5. But Steel Pier won nothing & Titanic won all 5 including Best Musical. What happened next? Titanic, which was in serious trouble, ran for nearly two more years and Steel Pier closed within a month of the Tonys.
As far as non-Best Musical wins, I imagine the data is a bit more sketchy. But I do think a big nominations haul coupled with a strong Tonys performance can help. I just think the help is not that long lasting usually. That's what I see potentially happening for shows like Some Like It Hot & New York New York