The 76th Annual Tony Award Nominations (2023)- Page 16

[noahseestheatre]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 11:35am

Mr. Wormwood said: "BETTY22 said: "I have been trying t research what a TONY win means for a show.

Is there any scientific data? Such as a best musical win get's you 15% box office bump?"

I'm sure there is someone who could mine the data but I think there's so much fluctuation because of what a show has done before the Tonys.

Sometimes, a Tony for Best Musical can prevent a show from a likely imminent closing (think shows like Titanic, Gentlemen's Guide, Fun Home)

Other times, a show is already a huge hit so a Best Musical win doesn't necessarily mean a box office bump because it didn't need it (think shows like The Lion King, The Producers, Hamilton)

Other times, a show is a modest hit that really goes into the stratosphere for awhile after a Best Musical win (think shows like Avenue Q, Kinky Boots, Hadestown)

A Best Musical win can make all the difference for a struggling show. In 1997, Titanic & Steel Pier both opened to mixed critical reviews and modest box office numbers. Steel Pier received 11 Tony nominations and Titanic received 5. But Steel Pier won nothing & Titanic won all 5 including Best Musical. What happened next? Titanic, which was in serious trouble, ran for nearly two more years and Steel Pier closed within a month of the Tonys.

As far as non-Best Musical wins, I imagine the data is a bit more sketchy. But I do think a big nominations haul coupled with a strong Tonys performance can help. I just think the help is not that long lasting usually. That's what I see potentially happening for shows like Some Like It Hot & New York New York"

 

I never realized Steel Pier did so poorly and Titanic sweeped its few nominations. Interesting, I wish I could read more about that race!

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 11:35am

I really don't know what to think about the craft awards.

Can ''Life of Pi'' wins Scenic, Lights and Costumes (because of the puppets?) when it didn't get a nom for ''Best Play''? Will ''Leopoldstadt'' get Play, Director and Featured Actor but also Costumes? Who takes Sound?

Musicals: I will be more than shocked if ''New York New York'' doesn't take ''Scenic'' and I was thinking they had Choreo in the bag but maybe it's going to ''Some Like It Hot''? Can they also win ''Lightning''? I guess ''Sound'' goes to ''&Juliet''.

Who gets Costumes? And Orchestrations? AND DIRECTION??

I think Kimberly still gets Musical, Score, Book and Actress, but can Bonnie lose to Betsy?

Also, are we really thinking Ghee won't win?

I believe Alex is 100% certain!

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 11:47am

Kad said: "The only recent example of a show not winning Best Musical but nevertheless being helped by the Tonys was Next to Normal and its 3 wins including Actress and Score."

Not quite your example, but PROMISES PROMISES was not even nominated for Best Revival in 2010, but they had a big performance on the telecast and Sean Hayes hosted it. So it got better coverage than most shows on the telecast, and it remained a solid seller throughout its 10-month run.

[Ftworthguy]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 12:28pm

noahseestheatre said: "Mr. Wormwood said: "BETTY22 said: "I have been trying t research what a TONY win means for a show.

Is there any scientific data? Such as a best musical win get's you 15% box office bump?"

I'm sure there is someone who could mine the data but I think there's so much fluctuation because of what a show has done before the Tonys.

Sometimes, a Tony for Best Musical can prevent a show from a likely imminent closing (think shows like Titanic, Gentlemen's Guide, Fun Home)

Other times, a show is already a huge hit so a Best Musical win doesn't necessarily mean a box office bump because it didn't need it (think shows like The Lion King, The Producers, Hamilton)

Other times, a show is a modest hit that really goes into the stratosphere for awhile after a Best Musical win (think shows like Avenue Q, Kinky Boots, Hadestown)

A Best Musical win can make all the difference for a struggling show. In 1997, Titanic & Steel Pier both opened to mixed critical reviews and modest box office numbers. Steel Pier received 11 Tony nominations and Titanic received 5. But Steel Pier won nothing & Titanic won all 5 including Best Musical. What happened next? Titanic, which was in serious trouble, ran for nearly two more years and Steel Pier closed within a month of the Tonys.

As far as non-Best Musical wins, I imagine the data is a bit more sketchy. But I do think a big nominations haul coupled with a strong Tonys performance can help. I just think the help is not that long lasting usually. That's what I see potentially happening for shows like Some Like It Hot & New York New York"



I never realized Steel Pier did so poorly and Titanic sweeped its few nominations. Interesting, I wish I could read more about that race!

"

The Rosie O'Donnell Show was running at the time and she featured the cast on her show -- I remember that having a lot to do with how the race played out -- Anyone else remember that? 

[Observation]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 12:45pm

Re: Titanic the musical

There is actually a great little video I found on YouTube from "Waiting in the Wings." I've been a fan of his videos for a little bit. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxwLV2AwHGM

 

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 12:50pm

Updated On: 5/3/23 at 12:50 PM

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 12:50pm

I think Chastain could pull a win from Comer. First, Chastain is very down to earth and participates in all the events. She's planning to be at Broadway Barks already. She's very genuine and whether its an act or not, she always plays the long game and connects with people. She fully commits and she's kind as well as remarkably talented. Part of winning awards is political. Her performance is fantastic and while not surprising is a revelation and a redemption from her last Broadway outing. She came back and tried again. Shows gumption and humility. She also didn't breeze into an easy piece. It's challenging. 

Comer arrived with a lauded show and performance. Expectations were high. She delivered. Some audience members feel she is OTT and can see the strings. Others are mesmerized. 

Both performances are polarizing. Some audiences don't like Jessica whispering. Some audiences think Jody talks too fast and is hard to understand. 

We will see what happens, but don't count Jessica out. She's a scrappy girl who came from chaos and poverty. She's in it to win it. 

 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 1:02pm

Ms. Chastain is shaping up to be the female equivalent of Hugh Jackman -- meaning a big Hollywood movie star who regularly does Broadway and loves being here and genuinely enjoys being a part of the community.

 

[noahseestheatre]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 1:04pm

Observation said: "Re: Titanic the musical

There is actually a great little video I found on YouTube from "Waiting in the Wings." I've been a fan of his videos for a little bit.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxwLV2AwHGM

"

That channel is the best! Inspired me to start a Youtube channel. So so interesting, though wish it had covered more of the race with Steel Pier.

[blaxx]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 1:08pm

BETTY22 said: "I have been trying t research what a TONY win means for a show.

Is there any scientific data? Such as a best musical win get's you 15% box office bump?"

Just the Best Musical award means something. In the past 22 years only 2 Best Musical winners have not recouped their investment, so the odds are pretty good. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 1:19pm

Ftworthguy said: "noahseestheatre said: "Mr. Wormwood said: "BETTY22 said: "I have been trying t research what a TONY win means for a show.

Is there any scientific data? Such as a best musical win get's you 15% box office bump?"

I'm sure there is someone who could mine the data but I think there's so much fluctuation because of what a show has done before the Tonys.

Sometimes, a Tony for Best Musical can prevent a show from a likely imminent closing (think shows like Titanic, Gentlemen's Guide, Fun Home)

Other times, a show is already a huge hit so a Best Musical win doesn't necessarily mean a box office bump because it didn't need it (think shows like The Lion King, The Producers, Hamilton)

Other times, a show is a modest hit that really goes into the stratosphere for awhile after a Best Musical win (think shows like Avenue Q, Kinky Boots, Hadestown)

A Best Musical win can make all the difference for a struggling show. In 1997, Titanic & Steel Pier both opened to mixed critical reviews and modest box office numbers. Steel Pier received 11 Tony nominations and Titanic received 5. But Steel Pier won nothing & Titanic won all 5 including Best Musical. What happened next? Titanic, which was in serious trouble, ran for nearly two more years and Steel Pier closed within a month of the Tonys.

As far as non-Best Musical wins, I imagine the data is a bit more sketchy. But I do think a big nominations haul coupled with a strong Tonys performance can help. I just think the help is not that long lasting usually. That's what I see potentially happening for shows like Some Like It Hot & New York New York"



I never realized Steel Pier did so poorly and Titanic sweeped its few nominations. Interesting, I wish I could read more about that race!

"

The Rosie O'Donnell Show was running at the time and she featured the cast on her show -- I remember that having a lot to do with how the race played out -- Anyone else remember that?"

Yes, she was definitely stumping for the show and hosting the Tonys that year. I think she did influence a few of the Tony voters (not in unsavory ways, just by beating the drum for the show so much).

Steel Pier is one of those "what could have been" shows in my mind. I know the book was a mess but the score was glorious. If it had won Best Musical, I wonder what sort of afterlife it would have now. I still want someone to revive the show (and revise the book).

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 1:29pm

Didn't knew Comer's performance was polarizing, I thought she received 100% acclaim for that one.

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 1:49pm

Neither Comer nor Chastain’s performances are polarizing. Whatever criticism they’ve received is clearly outnumbered by the raves for their work.

[Smaxie]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:08pm

I'd agree that both got great reviews even from critics who didn't like their respective shows. But looking at Did They Like It? for guidance, Prima Facie had 13 positive reviews and 1 mixed, to A Doll's House's 9 positive, 4 mixed and 2 negative reviews. I don't think the review breakdown is reflective of what people thought of Jessica Chastain, but more the austere production she's in. It feels like a year where the wealth will be spread around, and voting for Comer will be the way that the voters can reward Prima Facie, while Doll's House could be recognized by voting for the production for Best Revival. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:26pm

And I think ''A Doll's House'' really takes Best Revival, it got much more support than the other shows combined (almost literally LOL).

[Jarethan]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:26pm

blaxx said: "BETTY22 said: "I have been trying t research what a TONY win means for a show.

Is there any scientific data? Such as a best musical win get's you 15% box office bump?"

Just the Best Musical award means something. In the past 22 years only 2 Best Musical winners have not recouped their investment, so the odds are pretty good."

I assume one was A Strange Loop .  What was the other?  I assume Fun Home, with a lot less confidence that I am right.

[Peppa222]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:34pm

"I assume one was A Strange Loop .  What was the other?  I assume Fun Home, with a lot less confidence that I am right."

I'm pretty sure Fun Home recouped. I believe the two are Strange Loop and Passion. 

[RippedMan]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:42pm

You are correct. Fun Home was a hit. 

[ChorusKitty]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:44pm

"Fun Home" recouped after 8 months. It wasn't an expensive musical to run.  

[ggersten]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 2:51pm

Passion is more than 22 years ago. I recall that Millie did not recoup during its Broadway run. 

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 3:33pm

MadsonMelo said: "And I think ''A Doll's House'' really takes Best Revival, it got much more support than the other shows combined (almost literally LOL)."

I’m thinking it’s going to be The Piano Lesson! 

[MemorableUserName]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 4:15pm

Vulture: ‘I Wouldn’t Say They All Deserved This’: Three Tony Awards Voters Dish About This Year’s Nominees

[noahseestheatre]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 4:21pm

I remember when A Doll's House premiered, many talked badly about how minimal it was, but Lloyd got a nom for Best Director. What changed? The Chastain touch? She really is phenomenal

[Observation]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 4:23pm

Any predictions on who will perform what? 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 5/3/23 at 4:24pm

BdwyFan said: "MadsonMelo said: "And I think ''A Doll's House'' really takes Best Revival, it got much more support than the other shows combined (almost literally LOL)."

I’m thinking it’s going to be The Piano Lesson!"

Really? There was so little love for the show.