Time Out New York's 2008 Tony Predictions

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 2:16pm

Time Out New York handicapped the Tony race in its latest issue. this will definitely be an interesting Tonys, especially since TONY thinks only August: Osage County and Laura Benanti are locks.

Best PlayAugust: Osage County 95%
Rock ’n’ Roll 2%
The Seafarer 2%
The 39 Steps 1%
The race: It won the Pulitzer, it won the New York Drama Critics’ Circle, and this bitterly brilliant collaboration between Tracy Letts and Chicago’s Steppenwolf Theatre Company will win the Tony. The other contenders—British imports, all—don’t stand a chance. Hooray, America…and your squalid, nasty, dysfunctional families.

Best Musical
In the Heights 56%
Passing Strange 40%
Cry-Baby 2%
Xanadu 2%
The race: The old-fashioned feel-good community spirit of In the Heights—coupled with its commercial success—makes it the odds-on favorite to take the night’s biggest prize. But dark horse Passing Strange has some momentum from its slew of pre-Tony prizes (many of which In the Heights wasn’t eligible for) and it might just rock the vote.

Best Revival of a Play
Boeing-Boeing 43%
Macbeth 39%
The Homecoming 17%
Les Liaisons Dangereuses 1%
The race: A tight contest here, mainly between the sexy silliness of Boeing-Boeing and the grim multimedia flash of Patrick Stewart’s Macbeth. The former is still running, though, and thus has an edge. Either way, we’re still bummed that Top Girls was overlooked.

Best Revival of a Musical
South Pacific 76%
Gypsy 19%
Sunday in the Park with George 5%
Grease 0%
The race: Despite Patti LuPone’s nuclear turn in Gypsy, the Tony magic lies with South Pacific, which is practically the platonic ideal of a reverential revival of a beloved Golden Age musical. It’s great-looking nostalgia. Sunday in the Park is charming, but a bit gimmicky and it suffers from a puny orchestra.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Mark Rylance, Boeing-Boeing 43%
Patrick Stewart, Macbeth 41%
Laurence Fishburne, Thurgood 14%
Rufus Sewell, Rock ’n’ Roll 1%
Ben Daniels, Les Liaisons Dangereuses 1%
The race: The prestige factor would ordinarily put Rylance’s bravura farcing at a disadvantage against Stewart’s Shakespearean menace. But Rylance’s status as equally accomplished with the Bard may tip the scales.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Deanna Dunagan, August: Osage County 52%
Amy Morton, August: Osage County 38%
S. Epatha Merkerson, Come Back, Little Sheba 8%
Eve Best, The Homecoming 1%
Kate Fleetwood, Macbeth 1%
The race: Dunagan has the flashy mother-from-hell role with killer lines, but don’t rule out a surprise upset from her fellow ensemble member Amy Morton, who carries large sections of August with guts and passion.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a MusicalPaulo Szot, South Pacific 46%
Lin-Manuel Miranda, In the Heights 42%
Daniel Evans, Sunday in the Park with George 8%
Stew, Passing Strange 3%
Tom Wopat, A Catered Affair 1%
The race: Again, this is a hard call. On the one hand, Szot makes voters swoon with his looks and that golden baritone. But Miranda is up there keepin’ it real with tons of charm…Oh, the agony!

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Patti LuPone, Gypsy 53%
Kelli O’Hara, South Pacific 42%
Faith Prince, A Catered Affair 2%
Jenna Russell, Sunday in the Park with George 2%
Kerry Butler, Xanadu 1%
The race: On merit, the capable O’Hara can’t compete with LuPone’s mind-altering tour de force. But the Tonys are more about buzz than honey, so she could score a deeply upsetting upset.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Play
Jim Norton, The Seafarer 53%
Raúl Esparza, The Homecoming 38%
Conleth Hill, The Seafarer 7%
David Pittu, Is He Dead? 1%
Bobby Cannavale, Mauritius 1%
The race: No one does sozzled like Norton. But he does face some competition from Esparza, who may win a pity vote for his disappointing loss for last season’s Company.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Rondi Reed, August: Osage County 33%
Mary McCormack, Boeing-Boeing 31%
Martha Plimpton, Top Girls 30%
Laurie Metcalf, November 5%
Sinead Cusack, Rock ’n’ Roll 1%
The race: We’ve got a three-way split here, with a trio of extremely funny performers. If August sweeps, then Reed takes home some gold. But McCormack’s Teutonic turn in Boeing-Boeing is unforgettable.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Boyd Gaines, Gypsy 60%
Daniel Breaker, Passing Strange 21%
Danny Burstein, South Pacific 16%
Christopher Fitzgerald, Young Frankenstein 2%
Robin De Jesús, In the Heights 1%
The race: Having won three Tonys already, Gaines should gain another for his perfectly modulated supporting turn. Breaker might catch a break, however, if voters want to throw a little love at Passing Strange.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Laura Benanti, Gypsy 90%
Loretta Ables Sayre, South Pacific 4%
Andrea Martin, Young Frankenstein 3%
Olga Merediz, In the Heights 2%
de’Adre Aziza, Passing Strange 1%
The race: Memorize the combination, fellas, ’cause this one’s a lock. Benanti’s touching turn as Gypsy Rose Lee strips this category of any suspense.

Best Original Score
In the Heights, Lin-ManuelMiranda 54%
Passing Strange, Stew and Heidi Rodewald 44%
Cry-Baby, David Javerbaum and Adam Schlesinger 1%
The Little Mermaid, Alan Menken, Howard Ashman and Glenn Slater 1%
The race: Even if In the Heights takes Best Musical, the well-reviewed Passing Strange could nab Best Score as a consolation prize. But Miranda’s fresh sound motors his show’s success.

Best Book of a Musical
In the Heights, Quiara Alegría Hudes 35%
Passing Strange, Stew 33%
Xanadu, Douglas Carter Beane, 31%
Cry-Baby, Mark O’Donnell and Thomas Meehan, 1%
The race: Slate voting will probably carry Hudes through, though In the Heights’s weak book makes this one of the night’s least predictable contests. Beane’s gleeful camp gives Xanadu its best chance for a win.

Best Direction of a Play
Anna D. Shapiro, August: Osage County 79%
Matthew Warchus, Boeing-Boeing 15%
Conor McPherson, The Seafarer 5%
Maria Aitken, The 39 Steps 1%
The race: There’s got to be some sort of award for corralling 13 actors for more than three hours without a dull moment. Oh, yeah, it’s called the Tony, and Shapiro wholeheartedly deserves it.

Best Direction of a Musical
Bartlett Sher, South Pacific 76%
Arthur Laurents, Gypsy 17%
Thomas Kail, In the Heights 4%
Sam Buntrock, Sunday in the Park with George 3%
The race: Sher’s elegant direction brings South Pacific to lush life in a revival that leaves audiences glowing with pleasure.
Time Out New York 2008 Tony Predictions

[Borstalboy]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 2:45pm

If Esparza wins the "pity Tony" it will be a sad day for acting. I like Raul, but that performance belonged between two slices of bread with some cheese.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:02pm

Who be these "pundits" anyway?

I'm surprised Patti's numbers aren't higher.
CRYBABY got 4% total, and I think that's 4% too many in my book.

[Jane2]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:10pm

"If Esparza wins the "pity Tony" it will be a sad day for acting. I like Raul, but that performance belonged between two slices of bread with some cheese"


Ham!

[Marianne2]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:13pm

Funny, I was about to post the exact same thing. LOL! For some reason we got this in the mail today. Weird. It isn't even addressed to anyone who lives here. Well, the last name is, but the first name isn't.

I was laughing the most at "Best Revivial of a Musical." Only because 'Grease' is not expected to win at all. That's pretty bad.

[BillyE]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:17pm

Laura Benanti, 90%!
Wow! If there's a sure thing this year, I'm glad to see she's it.

A couple of upsets I'd like to see:
Kelli over Patti
Passing Strange over In The Heights

[splendoris]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:18pm

I hope they are wrong about best book of a musical...

[TooDarnHot]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:20pm

This is a joke, right?

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 3:35pm

I have no idea who these "pundits" are, but I'm also confused as to why Patti's numbers aren't higher. although I think I shouldn't comment on that particular category very much. I haven't seen South Pacific yet, I don't find Kelli O'Hara very exciting anyway, and I think Patti is one of the most dynamic actresses I've ever seen. basically...I'm very very biased.

[FuturePenny2]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 4:05pm

They may think Xanadu wont win the Tony but NO WAY does is have an equal percent of winning as Cry Baby.

and idk.. i tend to disagree with some of their choices and percents but thats just me.

[BroadwayChica]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 4:18pm

The predictions themselves seem pretty spot on, but those percentages are so weird and random. How do you even measure that? Xanadu has an equal shot at winning as Cry-Baby? Seriously?

And, for the record, I truly believe Boyd Gaines will not win the Tony. It's gonna be Daniel Breaker. Deservedly so. But I'm pretty much on board with the rest of the predictions (even Best Book - I agree, I think voters don't put as much thought into these things as we do, and tend to vote in blocks. ITH may very well win that award. Which will be hilarious to witness)

[barcelona20]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 4:22pm

Cry Baby is a better show than Xanadu. Better choreography, and better music and lyrics (which are ORIGINAL!)

Neither one has a shot though of winning.

[broadfan327]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 4:34pm

>>Funny, I was about to post the exact same thing. LOL! For some >>reason we got this in the mail today. Weird. It isn't even >>addressed to anyone who lives here. Well, the last name is, but >>the first name isn't.

Same thing happened to me today.

[verynewyorkcurious]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 4:39pm

I think they got the predictions down. It's one of those sad but true moments.

The book for Xanadu and PS are superior to ITH, but chances are ITH is gonna take the award.

Xanadu can kick Cry Baby's ass. 2% for Cry Baby makes sense, but not the 2% for Xanadu.

[iluvny04]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 7:41pm

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Patti LuPone, Gypsy 53%
Kelli O’Hara, South Pacific 42%
Faith Prince, A Catered Affair 2%
Jenna Russell, Sunday in the Park with George 2%
Kerry Butler, Xanadu 1%
The race: On merit, the capable O’Hara can’t compete with LuPone’s mind-altering tour de force. But the Tonys are more about buzz than honey, so she could score a deeply upsetting upset.

That is bull-crap Kelli can defnitely compete with Patti and to some Kelli is giving a tour de force as well and regarding the numbers Ithink they are pretty accurate a lot of people think Kelli should win instead of Patti and will be competition for Patti. In short at this stage Patti doesn't have it in the bag.

[Lavieboheme3090]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 7:44pm

I am surprised that we haven't speculated more over who is going to win best book. I hope it will go to Xanadu, but it the award that seems the most up in the air at this point.

[jv92]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 8:01pm

iluvny04, ever hear of punctuation?

Patti has it in the f'in bag. The Tony people are affraid she'll murder someone if she loses. At least, they should be.
And she made Ben Brantley (and jv92) eat their hats!

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 8:02pm

I might point out that Patti got across the board raves, while Kelli got some very favorable reviews and some reviews that said she was "bland" or "chilly". so, yes, to some she is giving a tour-de-force performance. to others she's not on the same level as Patti.

[CurtainPullDowner]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 8:07pm

Again, The critics do not vote for these awaeds.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 8:11pm

touche, CurtainPullDowner.

[iluvny04]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 8:44pm

To all that think Patti has in the bag read this and tell me what you think:

Tonys: Could Patti get slapped by a diva backlash?
Don't assume, like many other Tony pundits, that Patti LuPone will automatically win the best-actress award just because she blasts the roof off the St. James Theater eight times per week.

Yes, she gives a dynamic turn in a show called the greatest in Broadway history by two of the New York Times' reigning sages — Ben Brantley and Frank Rich. But beware: Ethel Merman didn't win for the original production of "Gypsy." And Bernadette Peters recently lost in the role as Momma Rose, too.

Also, consider this: As much of a "legend" as Patti LuPone is at this point in her esteemed career, let's recall that she hasn't won a Tony in 28 years. The only time she ever prevailed was for "Evita" back in 1980. Since then she's lost twice: "Anything Goes" (198 and "Sweeney Todd" (2006).

Diva-loving award pundits like me often make the mistake of assuming that voters of showbiz awards probably adore those defiant dames with brassy voices (and knuckles sometimes, too) just like we do. But do they?


Perhaps the opposite is true. Voters for these awards work in the industry and may be sick of the giant, bossy egos that often go with these bawdy dames up close. I sometimes think that's why Judy Garland never won an Oscar even when it was obvious that she should've triumphed by universal acclamation for "A Star Is Born" in 1954.

Ethel Merman won a Tony earlier in her career, back in 1951, for "Call Me Madam," but she got a bit too big for her girdle by the time "Gypsy" strutted on Broadway.

That pushy Barbra Streisand lost Tonys twice. The first time was in the supporting slot for "I Can Get It For You Wholesale" in 1962. Her second loss is hugely ironic in terms of showbiz history. When she was nominated in the lead race for "Funny Girl" in 1964, she didn't lose to just anybody. She lost to the gal she'd steal "Hello, Dolly" from when it went to silver screen: Carol Channing. Since that was the last Tony nomination that Streisand earned, Channing's win for "Dolly" on Broadway has thus stopped Streisand from joining the ranks of the select few stars who've pulled off the showbiz award Grand Slam (Oscar, Emmy, Grammy, Tony). Babs won an honorary Tony in 1970, but that, as all award gurus know, doesn't count.

As a newbie in Hollywood, Babs won the Oscar for "Funny Girl," of course, but that was before her hellion reputation caught up with her. Years later, when "Prince of Tides" was nominated for best picture, the academy shockingly snubbed her in the director's race.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

Perhaps we got a hint that LuPone might be a tough diva to handle back when she created the role of Norma Desmond in Andrew Lloyd Webber's original musical stage production of "Sunset Boulevard" in London. Even though she was contracted to assume the role on Broadway next, Lloyd Webber booted her in favor of Glenn Close, who had wowed audiences in Los Angeles.

LuPone got revenge. She sued for breach of contract and got an out-of-court settlement. Sounding like a bit like a real diva, she later told everybody that the sum was big enough to build the "Andrew Lloyd Webber memorial pool" at her home up in Connecticut.

But Close ended up getting the last laugh where it counts: at the Tonys. She won best actress when "Sunset" swept those awards, including best musical, in 1995.

I have no reason to doubt those who insist that LuPone has been a perfect lady while performing in "Gypsy," but let's just say that the odds on that rising, aspiring diva Kelli O'Hara ("South Pacific") might be a little better than you think they are. One possible reason reason: Maybe established divas of the brassy sort inspire less awe over the years among those who work closely with them. Just maybe. Or maybe hot, newer, rising divas are prefered simply because they're newer. Or maybe this whole theory is hokum. Just askin'.

jv 92 you may think she has in the bag, but the reality is that an upset is slowly becoming real and the chances for Kelli taking it from Patti. The chances of an upset are becoming stronger and you can deny it all you want but as of now an upset is now very likely. Gives me voice people could say patti is bland and chilly. There are many people on this board who do not think Patti Lupone is greatest thing since sliced bread and think that she is soley playing herself rather than giving a tour-de-force performance. Also if you remember USA today gave Gypsy 3 stars,talkin broadway was mixed to negative and newsday was completely negative and said Patti was better at cc. Across the board raves I don't think so.




Updated On: 6/11/08 at 08:44 PM

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 9:17pm

sweetheart, I'd respond to your post if your last paragraph had more punctuation and clearly defined sentences.

[iluvny04]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 9:32pm

Feel free now that my post has been edited:

To all that think Patti has in the bag read this and tell me what you think:

Tonys: Could Patti get slapped by a diva backlash?
Don't assume, like many other Tony pundits, that Patti LuPone will automatically win the best-actress award just because she blasts the roof off the St. James Theater eight times per week.

Yes, she gives a dynamic turn in a show called the greatest in Broadway history by two of the New York Times' reigning sages — Ben Brantley and Frank Rich. But beware: Ethel Merman didn't win for the original production of "Gypsy." And Bernadette Peters recently lost in the role as Momma Rose, too.

Also, consider this: As much of a "legend" as Patti LuPone is at this point in her esteemed career, let's recall that she hasn't won a Tony in 28 years. The only time she ever prevailed was for "Evita" back in 1980. Since then she's lost twice: "Anything Goes" (198 and "Sweeney Todd" (2006).

Diva-loving award pundits like me often make the mistake of assuming that voters of showbiz awards probably adore those defiant dames with brassy voices (and knuckles sometimes, too) just like we do. But do they?


Perhaps the opposite is true. Voters for these awards work in the industry and may be sick of the giant, bossy egos that often go with these bawdy dames up close. I sometimes think that's why Judy Garland never won an Oscar even when it was obvious that she should've triumphed by universal acclamation for "A Star Is Born" in 1954.

Ethel Merman won a Tony earlier in her career, back in 1951, for "Call Me Madam," but she got a bit too big for her girdle by the time "Gypsy" strutted on Broadway.

That pushy Barbra Streisand lost Tonys twice. The first time was in the supporting slot for "I Can Get It For You Wholesale" in 1962. Her second loss is hugely ironic in terms of showbiz history. When she was nominated in the lead race for "Funny Girl" in 1964, she didn't lose to just anybody. She lost to the gal she'd steal "Hello, Dolly" from when it went to silver screen: Carol Channing. Since that was the last Tony nomination that Streisand earned, Channing's win for "Dolly" on Broadway has thus stopped Streisand from joining the ranks of the select few stars who've pulled off the showbiz award Grand Slam (Oscar, Emmy, Grammy, Tony). Babs won an honorary Tony in 1970, but that, as all award gurus know, doesn't count.

As a newbie in Hollywood, Babs won the Oscar for "Funny Girl," of course, but that was before her hellion reputation caught up with her. Years later, when "Prince of Tides" was nominated for best picture, the academy shockingly snubbed her in the director's race.

CLICK HERE to Read MORE!

Perhaps we got a hint that LuPone might be a tough diva to handle back when she created the role of Norma Desmond in Andrew Lloyd Webber's original musical stage production of "Sunset Boulevard" in London. Even though she was contracted to assume the role on Broadway next, Lloyd Webber booted her in favor of Glenn Close, who had wowed audiences in Los Angeles.

LuPone got revenge. She sued for breach of contract and got an out-of-court settlement. Sounding like a bit like a real diva, she later told everybody that the sum was big enough to build the "Andrew Lloyd Webber memorial pool" at her home up in Connecticut.

But Close ended up getting the last laugh where it counts: at the Tonys. She won best actress when "Sunset" swept those awards, including best musical, in 1995.

I have no reason to doubt those who insist that LuPone has been a perfect lady while performing in "Gypsy," but let's just say that the odds on that rising, aspiring diva Kelli O'Hara ("South Pacific") might be a little better than you think they are. One possible reason reason: Maybe established divas of the brassy sort inspire less awe over the years among those who work closely with them. Just maybe. Or maybe hot, newer, rising divas are prefered simply because they're newer. Or maybe this whole theory is hokum. Just askin'.

jv 92 you may think she has in the bag, but the reality is that an upset is slowly becoming real and the chances for Kelli taking it from Patti. The chances of an upset are becoming stronger and you can deny it all you want but as of now an upset is now very likely. Gives me voice people could say patti is bland and chilly. There are many people on this board who do not think Patti Lupone is greatest thing since sliced bread and think that she is soley playing herself rather than giving a tour-de-force performance. Also if you remember USA today gave Gypsy 3 stars,talkin broadway was mixed to negative and newsday was completely negative and said Patti was better at cc. Across the board raves I don't think so.

[dancingthrulife04]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 9:39pm

2% for Jenna Russell? For real? This makes me wonder.

[givesmevoice]

Posted: 6/11/08 at 9:52pm

well, I said this was an argument I never really wanted to have, but I guess I brought this upon myself.

firstly, I know I read the article you posted, but now I can't remember where it was. could you possibly link me?

second, I really don't like the nonsense people keep bringing up about Sunset Boulevard. my understanding is that she was replaced in a horribly unprofessional way, and not because she was a difficult diva to handle. saying that she used her settlement for the Andrew Lloyd Webber Memorial Pool is meant to be a joke [again, at least that's my understanding.]

thirdly, I can understand not liking Patti, but anyone who has ever watched her mouth when she was speaking knows she's anything but bland.

and finally, I am, admittedly, a huge Patti fan. and I like to think I can glean her personality from interviews pretty well. I imagine Rose is quite far from the person she actually is. although her Rose loves her children [or is meant to], she still is misguided [Patti's words] about what her children want and need. Rose wants love and attention, and although she has a daughter [Louise] who very obviously loves her for almost the entirety of the show AND a man who is completely willing to marry her...she rejects them. I believe that although Patti is a forceful personality and is very demanding on her coworkers for their total and utter devotion to their craft, she is very warm and loving. she's been married for nearly 20 years, and is still [judging from pictures] very close to her husband. she has also verbalized how crazy she is about her son, and how worried she is about pushing him in the wrong direction. Rose she is not.

now, this is all speculation on my part, but it's the best evidence I can come up with to oppose this "Patti is only playing herself" argument.


I haven't seen South Pacific, and so I know my judgment is not completely fair and even. However, I cannot imagine Kelli O'Hara turning in a performance like the one I saw Patti give, due in part to the roles. I don't think Nellie has the same emotional arc as Rose, so although I believe Kelli is breathing new life into the role, it will never go as far as Rose can.

Patti is an acquired taste, I think. between the voice and the personality and the weird vocal mannerisms, there's a lot to take in. I don't think anyone can deny Kelli is lovely with a lovely technical voice. but as good a performance as she is giving, she's not carrying the show on her back and she's not bringing people to their feet before the show is even over. she's easy to swallow, true, but easy doesn't always mean the best. one year, probably very soon, she'll be rewarded with a Tony of her own. I just don't think she'll pull an upset this year.