What do you guys think will be the nxt broadways longest running show?- Page 2

[winston89]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 9:30am

I agree with what the poster above me said. I was just wondering with webber being known to close shows even if they are still doing well a la cats and starlight. What do you think the chances of this happining with POTO? I mean a friend of mine and I agreed that a show like Cats could easilly have played a good few years more if they hadn't decided to close it when they did.

[Wanna Be A Foster]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 9:49am

The difference is, with his writing a sequel to PHANTOM, he will want to keep them both the original and the sequel open at the same time. By closing PHANTOM and bringing in the sequel, he loses half of his business for the sequel (people who have never seen the original PHANTOM). By keeping PHANTOM open and bringing in the sequel, he DOUBLES his business, encouraging new theatergoers to buy tickets to both shows as an "event", also encouraging people who have seen PHANTOM in the past to make a return trip to refresh their memory before seeing the sequel.

Updated On: 3/13/07 at 09:49 AM

[tazber]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 10:03am

I think we all know it will Pirate Queen

Posted: 3/13/07 at 10:11am

Phantom of the Opera draws on an adult base. On the other hand, Wicked draws on a teen base. Hopefully the next generation of teens will have a little more taste and that will doom Wicked while Phantom of the Opera plays on.

[Hanna from Hamburg]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 10:27am

RENT will probably never be the longest running. The movie helped spike its business, but it's hit some pretty huge lows over the years. I'll bet it's only a going to be running a couple more years -- has a LONG way to go to catch up to Phantom and Phantom has to close for any other show to have a chance of overtaking it. Even Wicked (which is doing bang-up business internationally) could lose steam quickly. While it's not tied to particular stars (e.g. Broderick/Lane in Producers), it is in the "American Idol" musical style. If that style goes completely out, you could see the %'s drop very quickly. Wicked has already seen scattered weeks where it wasn't sold out. That's MUCH earlier than Phantom experienced unsold seats(I believe).

EDIT: I think it will be difficult if not impossible for any show to surpass Phantom as longest running.

Updated On: 3/13/07 at 10:27 AM

[Dover]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 7:11pm

IIRC, the point where the question "are we sold out?" first became necessary at Phantom was after about 8 or 9 years. I'm pretty sure it was before the 10th anniversary. Obviously a long way from Wicked, although who knows if you can really compare trends from almost 20 years ago. We may never see shows with that much hype ever again.

[BobbyErikValjean]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 7:52pm

I think Phantom has another 5 good years, maybe more. I have a feeling Wicked will surpass it in years to come, unless the Wicked craze dies down.

Although Wicked has a big teen fanbase, I've seen a lot of teens my age at the Majestic when I saw the show 3 times last year. I think the movie brought them out.

[jv92]

Posted: 3/13/07 at 8:02pm

The Wicked craze will die down.
I have a very strange feeling that Chicago will beat out all of the others. What sweet revenge for Kander, Ebb, Fosse and company! The show is cheap to run, attracts tourists quite easily especially with the movie still quite popular and will never seem dated. The justice system was like Chicago depicts that in 1925, it was like that in 1975, it was like that in 1995, it was like that in 2002, it's like that now and it forever will be. It's timeless and the most American of the American musicals.

[Scaulter]

Posted: 3/14/07 at 10:00am

Les Miserables should never have closed and should be the longest running show not only in London but on Broadway too. Rent is a very good show. The Lion King is also, just the production values are amazing.

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 3/14/07 at 10:30am

"While it's not tied to particular stars (e.g. Broderick/Lane in Producers), it is in the "American Idol" musical style. If that style goes completely out, you could see the %'s drop very quickly."

Wicked is not in "American Idol" style at all. You'd never see anything from Wicked being performed on Idol, and Wicked does not even remotely fit into any of today's popular music (One could stretch "For Good" into something, but still, it's not the type of song teens are listening to on the radio these days), so I'm not sure I see your point...


I'm SURE Wicked will pass Phantom one day, and God only knows what can pass that. Remember, Wicked is still selling out the second largest house on Broadway several years after its opening, they have a long, LONG time before they even try to downsize to a smaller theatre

[ErinDillyFan]

Posted: 3/14/07 at 11:11am

I don't see Rent passing POTO. It would have to play 9 years after POTO closed. If the appeal of the tour shows in Detroit are any indication, the last POTO show I saw was sold out and Rent was about 50%. They might start sing about the beginning of the millenium and not the end.

[KQuill]

Posted: 3/14/07 at 1:27pm

Phantom has to close first for any of this to happen muahahaha

[munkustrap178]

Posted: 3/14/07 at 1:31pm

Foster, you must be really quite desperate if you comb the searches for things already discussed. I think it's so strange that you ALWAYS seem to think that you are justified in going around telling people that what they're talking about was already discussed. PLEASE.

[RockabyeHamlet]

Posted: 8/1/07 at 4:38pm

I think Phantom's longevity was helped by Webber's recent failings in other endevors. I think if ,for instance, the Woman in White was a big success, Webber might have pulled the plug on Phantom shortly after it was crowned the longest running musical, esp. with the intention of writing a sequel, however the fact that his more recent endevors were such dismal failures, makes me think that Webber would still like to gain from his cash cow, until he has another hit.

That being said, I don't see any show currently on Broadway taking the crown.

[GlindatheGood22]

Posted: 8/1/07 at 4:48pm

Should Webber choose to leave it be, Phantom's got another ten years at least. And as for Rent, well, who knows. But these are the shows I don't see closing anytime soon:

Phantom
Hairspray
Wicked
Mary Poppins
The Lion King
Jersey Boys
Chicago
Les Miz
Xanadu
Spring Awakening
Rent

But the trouble is that all these shows are in direct competition with eachother, I.E. Rent and Spring Awakening, so somebody has to cave sometime.

[Scarywarhol]

Posted: 8/1/07 at 5:41pm

Grey Gardens.

[shiz_student94]

Posted: 8/1/07 at 5:46pm

I believe Phantom and Rent aren't going ANYWHERE for a while. Wicked is hopefully and in my opinion going to be around for YEARS to come. Mamma Mia is also pretty strong, as well as The Lion King... some other shows are still bringing in lots of money and will be around for some more years...but anything can happen on Broadway.

[jagfkb]

Posted: 8/1/07 at 6:06pm

I thought it'd be interesting to see which shows can be the nex longest running:

* "Rent" 4697
* "Chicago" (Revival) 4450
* "The Lion King" 4082
* "Mamma Mia!" 2420
* "Hairspray" 2056
* "Avenue Q" 1668
* "Wicked" 1564
* "Monty Python's Spamalot" 979
* "The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee" 936