WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 8

[Jeff Tupolski]

Posted: 1/12/23 at 6:31pm

jkcohen626 said: "I think there are a few other noms it will get as well. As far as wins though, the only category I think it could really shake up is Featured Actor. Whoever ends up playing Jim Conley, Frankie Epps, or Britt Craig could end up getting noms and I think the category is so competitive that one of them could win it."

I don’t think Frankie or Britt are good enough roles to even get nominated. Conley is though, and if Alex Joseph Grayson plays it again on Broadway, I’m pretty sure he’ll make the lineup, he’s phenomenal.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 1/12/23 at 7:10pm

kdogg36 said: "Alex M said: "With the amount of revivals we are getting this season I very interested as to what will happen at the Tonys. I guess its hard to say since no one has seen three of them yet."

Actually four (at least) - it seems like just about everyone has forgotten about Dancin'."

 

Wasn’t Danin’ included in those 3? 6 musical revivals eligible, 3 of which have been seen (Parade, ITW, 1776) and 3 which haven’t (Dancin’, Camelot, Sweeney). Am I forgetting another one?

[kdogg36]

Posted: 1/12/23 at 7:16pm

JBroadway said: "kdogg36 said: "Wasn’t Danin’ included in those 3? 6 musical revivals eligible, 3 of which have been seen (Parade, ITW, 1776) and 3 which haven’t (Dancin’, Camelot, Sweeney). Am I forgetting another one?"

You’re absolutely right. I put Parade in the wrong group because I didn’t see it at City Center. My bad!

[JanMaxwellsBag]

Posted: 1/12/23 at 7:22pm

Updated On: 1/12/23 at 07:22 PM

[qafgenius122]

Posted: 1/14/23 at 12:28am

Jeff Tupolski said: "jkcohen626 said: "I think there are a few other noms it will get as well. As far as wins though, the only category I think it could really shake up is Featured Actor. Whoever ends up playing Jim Conley, Frankie Epps, or Britt Craig could end up getting noms and I think the category is so competitive that one of them could win it."

I don’t think Frankie or Britt are good enough roles to even get nominated. Conley is though, and if Alex Joseph Grayson plays it again on Broadway, I’m pretty sure he’ll make the lineup, he’s phenomenal."

I had the same thought, if Alex goes to Broadway, there is almost no way he doesnt receive a nomination.

 

[Observation]

Posted: 1/14/23 at 1:34pm

Any word on whether Micaela Diamond will be for Lead or Featured Actress in a musical? I’m not entirely sure how all of that works. From an outsider, I would think her chances of winning are better in supporting… 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/14/23 at 1:49pm

I believe the promotional material has Platt and Diamond above the above the title, unless the producers petition for her to be eligible as featured she’ll likely be categorized as leading. Also, I believe Carolee Carmello was nominated in the lead category for the original Broadway production.
 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 1/14/23 at 1:50pm

Observation said: "Any word on whether Micaela Diamond will be for Lead or Featured Actress in a musical? I’m not entirely sure how all of that works. From an outsider, I would think her chances of winning are better in supporting…"

I would assume she'll be leading. She's above the title, plus Carolee Carmello wss considered leading for the original. So there's always a chance they'll do something unexpected, but most likely she'll remain in lead.

[JoeW4]

Posted: 1/14/23 at 1:56pm

Observation said: "Any word on whether Micaela Diamond will be for Lead or Featured Actress in a musical? I’m not entirely sure how all of that works. From an outsider, I would think her chances of winning are better in supporting…"

 

In addition to what Broadway61004 said above, I think it just makes sense, since I'd argue it's a leading role.

Updated On: 1/14/23 at 01:56 PM

[uncageg]

Posted: 1/15/23 at 11:48pm

It is a really crowded season in the acting categories. For me, so far, I like Justin Cooley for Leading Male in a musical. He has created a role in an original musical and is giving an absolutely amazing performance. It was one of those "just give him the Tony" performances for me. But I am sure we are, or hopefully are, in for some really good performances to come. I feel this is one of the most exciting seasons, all the way around,  in a long time.  JMO

Updated On: 1/15/23 at 11:48 PM

[JSquared2]

Posted: 1/16/23 at 12:14pm

uncageg said: "It is a really crowded season in the acting categories. For me, so far, I like Justin Cooley for Leading Male in a musical. He has created a role in an original musical and is giving an absolutely amazing performance. It was one of those "just give him the Tony" performances for me. But I am sure we are, or hopefully are, in for some really good performances to come. I feel this is one of the most exciting seasons, all the way around, in a long time. JMO"

 

It would be foolish for the producers to petition for Justin to be considered a Lead.  He'll have a MUCH better shot as Featured.

 

[yyys]

Posted: 1/16/23 at 12:24pm

He probably won't have a chance in Leading....dont think he has a lot of solo songs?

uncageg said: "It is a really crowded season in the acting categories. For me, so far, I like Justin Cooley for Leading Male in a musical. He has created a role in an original musical and is giving an absolutely amazing performance. It was one of those "just give him the Tony" performances for me. But I am sure we are, or hopefully are, in for some really good performances to come. I feel this is one of the most exciting seasons, all the way around, in a long time. JMO"

 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 1/23/23 at 1:36pm

- Audra McDonald, Ohio States Murders

- Laura Linney, Summer, 1976

- Jodie Comer, Prima Facie

- Jessica Chastain, A Doll's House

- Adrienne Warren, Room

- Zoe Wanamaker, Pictures from Home

Who else is a contender? Katy Sullivan? Maybe Jessica Hetch?

Do we need 8 or 9 contenders to have 5 nominees?

[JoeW4]

Posted: 1/23/23 at 2:06pm

You need 9 eligible to have 5 nominees. 8 or below = 4 nominees.

Feels like that's up in the air right now. A LOT of the “leading” roles here could, theoretically, go supporting. Seems like the only absolutely sure things for eligibility are Chastain, McDonald, and Comer.

Can anyone who saw Room in one of its previous runs comment on whether Ma is really a lead? I know she was in the film, but sounds like this adaptation is maybe more focused on this kid? (Frankly I thought the kid in the movie also should’ve been considered a lead).

What about Zoe Wanamaker? I seem to recall someone in that thread saying she doesn’t have much to do in the show.

And Summer 1976 hasn’t premiered anywhere yet, has it?

The rest seem like they’re all up in the air.

Linda Loman has historically gone supporting, but we’ll see.

In Cost of Living, i’d argue Kara Young is more of a lead than Katy Sullivan, particularly because of the final scene.

Thanksgiving Play (IIRC from seeing it 4 years ago) is a true ensemble piece between 2 men and 2 women. So it could go either way.

For Piano Lesson, I’d argue Danielle Brooks is a co-lead with Washington, but could go either way.

Is there a female lead in Good Night Oscar?

Anyway, all that’s to say, it’s too early to know whether there will be 4 or 5 nominees. Feels like it’ll be right on the cusp. But between all the possibilities, I'm guessing they'll scrape together 9 eligible contenders. Especially because several of the ones I speculated about are most likely going to be considered leads.

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/23/23 at 2:14pm

Can anyone explain why we haven’t had an eligibility ruling, so far, this season? Have they just not been able to gather up the committee? 

Updated On: 1/23/23 at 02:14 PM

[hearthemsing22]

Posted: 1/23/23 at 2:15pm

Emily Bergl ---June Levant is who I see listed in Good Night Oscar but of course I'm not sure how big that role is 

[Call_me_jorge]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 12:52pm

Call_me_jorge said: "Can anyone explain why we haven’t had an eligibility ruling, so far, this season? Have they just not been able to gather up the committee?"

This is totally without any insider info, but I’m gonna guess the tony awards committee is going to get rid of gendered performance categories. That’s why it’s taking so long to figure out the eligibility rulings.

[bdn223]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 1:42pm

Call_me_jorge said: "Call_me_jorge said: "Can anyone explain why we haven’t had an eligibility ruling, so far, this season? Have they just not been able to gather up the committee?"

This is totally without any insider info, but I’m gonna guess the tony awards committee is going to get rid of gendered performance categories. That’s why it’s taking so long to figure out the eligibility rulings."

It is most likely too late for them to do this for the 2022-2023 season, if they were going to make any changes it would've had to theoretically been announced between April and June of last year. It would be a case of changing the rules after the game has already begun at this point, which I cannot even fathom the amount of outrage would cause amongst unions and producers. Unlike the Outer Critics Circle, the Tony Awards can make someone's career so any changes like what was done at the OCCs will likely have to have a separate working group of members to figure out a solution too that can make everyone happy. In that scenario I would expect the American Theater Wing to at least announce that they were forming a committee to look into being gender inclusive in the awards to give producers the slightest heads up that this were a possibility.

I do wonder why we they have yet to even schedule an eligibility meeting, as those are typically announced in advance.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 1:49pm

The last I heard was that the committee was supposed to meet in January. But we are running out of time for January! (though I suppose it's still possible they meet today or tomorrow and a press release with results comes out Thursday or Friday). No idea what the hold up is. Certainly bizarre.

[The Distinctive Baritone]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 2:01pm

Given the move just made by the Outer Critics Circle AND the fact that there are non-binary actors in at least two principal, awards-bait roles on Broadway this season, I don't think the Tonys have much of a choice. They have to go genderless starting this year, and I'm betting they will.

[Hairspray0901]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 2:15pm

Pardon my ignorance on this topic but if they went genderless, would that mean for example that Josh Groban and Annaleigh Ashford could both be nominated in the same category? Or, Ben Platt and Michaela Diamond for example? Just curious how it would potentially work?

ETA: and if that is how it would work, would there be more nominees per category due to how crowded it would be?

Updated On: 1/24/23 at 02:15 PM

[Nicticorax]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 2:17pm

To preface: I'm nonbinary, and absolutely would love for the Tony Awards to remove gendered categories. I think they will be forced by circumstance to make the change soon, whether they want to or not.

However, I do feel like the change needs to be made carefully. There has been some controversy with other acting awards that have removed gendered categories, because they have started giving awards disproportionately to men. Unfortunately, we still live in a world where a lot of the meatiest, most complex roles are written by and for men, and subconscious bias from awards committees also plays a role, I suspect. To be fair, this is less of an issue in musical theatre than in film/TV (or even straight plays).

Again, to be crystal clear, I think this change needs to happen. I just wonder whether certain additional protocols and guidelines will need to be put in place to make it fair for everyone.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 2:25pm

I've always been curious about this because in the past few years I feel like the women's categories have been more competitive.  At least in terms of nominations, the women's categories have had more ties resulting in an extra nominee, though I suppose that wouldn't necessarily translate to more wins for women.  As a broad generalization, I do think there are perhaps more complex roles for women on stage (particularly in musicals) than there might be in other mediums, but I'm also curious as to how this would work.

A quick look at the winners for the Drama League Distinguished Performance Award has men outnumbering women 13-6, but that's also usually a different ball game than the Tonys.

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 2:28pm

I highly doubt that the Tonys would make a mid-season change to the categories. Of course, the Tonys have a habit of making up rules as they go, so I could be proven wrong, but I have particular experience here that leads me to believe the decision to introduce genderless acting categories will be MUCH more drawn out. 

I was in conversation with members of a certain queer critics group who recently adopted gender neutral categories. And let me tell you, you would not believe the amount of pushback it got. And this is from a group of all queer people. And they were even presented with a study which showed that the feared outcome of only awarding men in all-gender acting categories has not come to pass in awards organizations which have adopted all-gendered categories. There are a great many traditionalists in the entertainment industry who cannot imagine letting go of "Best Actor" and "Best Actress." And there are many women in the industry who fear that progress they've made in terms of their power and visibility in the industry will be threatened with such a move. These were enormous road blocks in a group made of entirely of queer people. Imagine the greater pushback in a general awards group? I think the "Big 4" EGOT award-givers will be the very last groups to use all-gender acting categories, if they ever do. It will take every other smaller group around them to change first. So if the Tonys suddenly announce this week that they are going gender neutral, I will be delighted, but very surprised.

[Nicticorax]

Posted: 1/24/23 at 2:32pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "And they were even presented with a study which showed that the feared outcome of only awarding men in all-gender acting categories has not come to pass in awards organizations which have adopted all-gendered categories."

Oh, I'd be interested to read about this! All the anecdotal evidence I've heard has been along the lines of the 13-6 split mentioned above. But even if evidence did point to this change causing an uneven split, I feel like there are guidelines that could be put in place to help account for and remedy that.