adamgreer said: "In recent memory, the only really egregious one in my opinion was Billy Elliot winning over next to normal.
I would also say that in 1988, Into the Woods should have beaten Phantom.
And while this may be unpopular, I firmly believe Ragtime is a far superior show to The Lion King (which I quite enjoy, but it's not in the same league as Ragtime).
Historically, the fact that neither West Side Story nor Gypsy won Best Musical is quite astounding.
There is no accounting for taste. I agree with everything you said, with one exception. I have seen Into The Woods 3 or 4 times and have hated it every time. I kept going back thinking that 'this production will do the trick'. I have finally concluded that, while there are a few songs that I like, I hate the score -- the title song is absolutely my most hated title song or Sondheim song ever, mainly due to the number of times it was reprised in the show -- and that is not going to change; and, if you like / love most Sondheim musicals, and hate the score of one of them, chances are that you are not going to change your mind after all these years. Sacrilege: I have seen the movie and have enjoyed it because I love the basic premise, but I have fast forwarded through some of the songs (and some have been eliminated as well).
Also, while it is far from perfect, I think that Phantom has gotten a bum wrap over the years. There is some beautiful music, there are some very clever patter songs, and the staging is one of the greatest I have seen for a musical in 50 years of theatre attendance. I remember getting goosebumps three or four times the first time I saw the show...something that has rarely if ever been equalled; and those moments were contributed equally by ALW and Prince, e.g., the title song when the candles rise out of the water (forget logic and think stage moment) and the organ is reaching its crescendo; Masquerade, when you realize that half the people on stage are dummies, yet you are still pulled into the magic; and etc. So, I think it definitely deserved its Tony, independent of ITW.