The producers would be wise to campaign Butz for Featured Actor, where he would almost be assured a win. I think they would be able to make a case for it- he has two numbers in the first act, but his presence trails off significantly in the second act, where he gets the one duet with Wopat's character and then the duet with Tveit that serves as the finale.
Between his glowing reviews and celebrity status, I think Daniel Radcliffe has become more and more of a front runner for Lead Actor. At this point, I don't see anyone being able to capsize him. I have a feeling it's going to shake up like this:
Lead Actor in a Musical
Josh Gad, THE BOOK OF MORMON
Daniel Radcliffe, HOW TO SUCCEED...
Andrew Rannells, THE BOOK OF MORMON
Tony Sheldon, PRISCILLA QUEEN OF THE DESERT
Aaron Tveit, CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
Featured Actor in a Musical
Norbert Leo Butz, CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
Joel Grey, ANYTHING GOES
John Laroquette, HOW TO SUCCEED...
Rory O'Malley, THE BOOK OF MORMON
Tom Wopat, CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
Tonya Pinkins: Then we had a "Lot's Wife" last June that was my personal favorite. I'm still trying to get them to let me sing it at some performance where we get to sing an excerpt that's gone.
Tony Kushner: You can sing it at my funeral.