We're talking about a movie that is in the first week of production and hypothetical awards nominations in a year and a half. You're talking about horse-race politics two weeks before nominations and somehow decide that it's "proof" you know what you're talking about.
There are indeed many trends and track records and precursors you can pay attention to for predicting awards. They always have the caveat "until we see the movie." You just aren't doing yourself any favors calling it "proof."
Rude?
Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.