Les Mis was predicted early because its a KNOWN QUANTITY. By nearly EVERYONE. The Last Five Years? Known by no one outside of B'way Geeks. (B'way Geeks is a loving term.)
If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it?
These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
You asked how someone could possiblbly be predicting movies for awards when they haven't even seen them.. Then you just said Les Mis was predicted because of its known quality. You just answered your own question and proved my analysis right. So thanks for that.
We're talking about a movie that is in the first week of production and hypothetical awards nominations in a year and a half. You're talking about horse-race politics two weeks before nominations and somehow decide that it's "proof" you know what you're talking about.
There are indeed many trends and track records and precursors you can pay attention to for predicting awards. They always have the caveat "until we see the movie." You just aren't doing yourself any favors calling it "proof."
Rude?
Words don't deserve that kind of malarkey. They're innocent, neutral, precise, standing for this, describing that, meaning the other, so if you look after them you can build bridges across incomprehension and chaos. But when they get their corners knocked off, they're no good anymore…I don't think writers are sacred, but words are. They deserve respect. If you get the right ones in the right order, you can nudge the world a little.
"Still Hurting" would work beautifully sung by Anna live, but I'd worry about the rest. Cathy is not an easy part to sing; it's a lot to sing and sing relatively high, and that could wear Anna's voice down, potentially.
I wasn't talking about Last five years specifically i was just talking about predicting a movie in general. For example If this doesn't have a good distributor then it probably won't see many awards in its future.
"there are indeed many trends and track records and precursors you can pay attention to for predicting awards"
Yes, we agree. Thats what DM wanted to know.
"You just aren't doing yourself any favors calling it "proof.""
I NEVER said the word "proof". Headband asked if i could provide proof and i basically said i can't give you any actual proof except the things that people usually look for when trying to figure out a movie's chances at the oscars (distibutor,director,market strategy) and usually most people who look for those things are right. Thats it.
Oscar Punditry is crystal clear until it's not. No one saw The Artist winning everything at the Oscar ceremony in 2012. No one. It was a race between The Descendants and Moneyball, with Midnight in Paris and Hugo as spoilers. Then The Artist premiered in November to rave reviews, picked up US distribution, and started to sweep right before the nominations. Suddenly, The Descendants and Moneyball were DOA, Hugo picked up steam, and Midnight in Paris was relegated to just being a good screenplay.
You cannot predict what will do well this far in advance. Just check out The Film Experience's April Fools predictions. Very few sure bets in the first half of the year make it. Release schedules change, campaigns are dropped in favor of other films from the same distributors/producers, and actors inconceivably demand a campaign in featured for a leading role in a film. An out of nowhere wtf? nomination (like Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close or The Blind Side) gets in for Best Picture and then all bets are off.
The best indicators don't even start arriving until October when the precursor nominations and awards start to pick the same films over and over. Best of lists point out potential spoilers, but don't always pan out.
After the Artist hit theatres with the reviews it was clear it was going to win. After November everyone saw that coming. Just like everyone saw ARGO winning after Ben Affleck didn't get his director nomination. Everyone was so sure he would get in and when he didn't everyone thought the movie's Best picture chances were dead UNTIL Affleck and Argo started winning every other award award. Ben affleck missing the director's nomination was the best thing that could have happened to that film. By mid January the race was over, it was clear who was going to win.
"The best indicators don't even start arriving until October when the precursor nominations and awards start to pick the same films over and over. Best of lists point out potential spoilers, but don't always pan out."
True. But at the same time When you have a big group of films you are predicting its not very hard to weed out the ones that people will not vote for. FRUTIVALE station received great reviews at the cannes festival ( i think it was cannes) and has a great shot at a nomination if the oscar buzz keeps surrounding it. Streep and Julia have oscar buzz surrounding AOC and Julia is on everyone's list for a nomination but for all we know she might suck so who knows.
AMERICAN HUSTLE is being directed by David O Russel and the 4 leads are all past oscar noms/ winners and David O russel made history by getting 4 acting nominations in last year with SLP. That hasn't been done in 30 odd years. They are clearly going for the Oscars also.
Jeremy Jordan spoke about singing live in the interview on here
"PC: Are you considering live singing for any of the film?
JJ: Well, I think that some of it needs to be sung live - at the same time, I think that a lot of it can't, though. Some of the production numbers would be too difficult to do live onset, I think - especially on something with a low budget like this.
................ So, I think we will be doing lots of stuff live, but not all of it."
As someone has said musical films can be a hard enough sell as it is but this one will be even harder. Most would have heard of Les Mis before the film but how many will have heard of The Last Five Years? Certainly outside of the USA I don't think its that well known?
broadway guy, the November thing was my point. That was when The Artist was announced as coming out in America in time for Oscar eligibility. Not a year and a half before the awards, two months. Same with Argo. Shoot, same with The Hurt Locker and that was a first quarter release with a strong Oscar campaign. No one knows exactly what's going to happen this far in advance. By November, it's mostly clear what films are getting in except for surprise nominations like Best Actor for Demian Bichir in A Better Life or Amour getting in for Picture and Director. And then there's the rare situation where the clear frontrunner gets snubbed, like Sally "Win Every Major Precursor and Not Be Nominated" Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky.
I agree with you when you say its way to early in the game to have a clear vision of the award nominations but my point was thats its not hard to figure it out when its a little bit later in the game.
But will it beat Bombshell for the Oscar.... wait.... what.... I'm confused.
Im in the UK, and big distribution or not it's great a relatively unknown musical is getting the chance to hit bigger audiences. Whether it goes on to get nominated for awards shouldn't be the priority yet.... let's just hope it's a good film that we can enjoy!
After Pitch Perfect, Anna Kendrick in a movie musical will absolutely get picked up by a big distributor.
The fantasy world that so many people choose to live in around here really amazes me. Anna Kendrick is great. She has turned out some award worthy work, and she is making a name for herself, but she has yet to become a major star. Her involvement does not absolutely guarantee anything.
While it is possible that this gets picked up by a major distributor, it is incredibly unlikely. It is simply not the typical case for these independently made musicals, even when they feature huge names. They play at festivals and if they get picked up by a small distributor they play at art houses then go to DVD. Repo! did not see major distribution, and Paris Hilton was still a huge flavor of the month at that time, as well as a host of other big metal names. The Fantasticks was made in 1995 then sat on the shelf for five years despite featuring Oscar winner Joel Grey and then recent heartthrob Joey McIntyre. Then there are the independent musicals that have no big names like Hedwig that played festivals, art houses then straight to DVD. The same is true for Anthony Rapp in Open House.
Last Five Years could get picked up by a major distributor, it could play at the big theaters, and it might even win a ton of Oscars. It probably won't. History is not on its side, and don't forget, not every film strives for that. Many directors and producers are OK with making small independent films for the sake of the art, and that is a good thing. It doesn't need major distribution in order to be an artistic success.
Paramount Vantage could distribute it, or Focus Features. They usually do small-scale independent pieces. Paramount Vantage even distributed Like Crazy, which is not too different from this story and this scale.
"Last Five Years could get picked up by a major distributor, it could play at the big theaters, and it might even win a ton of Oscars. It probably won't. History is not on its side, and don't forget, not every film strives for that. Many directors and producers are OK with making small independent films for the sake of the art, and that is a good thing. It doesn't need major distribution in order to be an artistic success"
jimmycurry summed it all up, perfectly. I'm not sure why we are all arguing about distribution and viable commercial success and potential awards (*cough* broadway guy *cough*).
1. It hasn't even been filmed entirely, yet 2. There is no way to know if it will ever get picked up OR make the festival circuit 3. As jimmy mentioned, we do not know what the producers' intentions are. Of course they want to make $$ but in the film industry, it costs lots of money to set yourself up for a greater profit -- you have to invest a lot more and it's a huge gamble. Besides, this could just be an artistic indie flick. We don't really know.
This all reminds me of dream casting. Sure, it might be fun to certain people to speculate and wonder but what does it really accomplish? And what impact does it have in the end? None.
I'm surprised that no one has talked about what is happening with Jeremy Jordan's leg in the second picture. I don't think that's a cell phone judging by the shape. He must REALLY be enjoying that kiss. lol
Unless he chopped off his ding-a-ling and shoved it in his pocket, it's safe to say that's his phone.
Is this aiming for the end of 2013 or for 2014? If marketed right, it could do well in the summer if it's marketed in the style of Moonrise Kingdom. A buzzy independent film that usually gets remembered come awards time.
"I saw Pavarotti play Rodolfo on stage and with his girth I thought he was about to eat the whole table at the Cafe Momus." - Dollypop
And how do you suggest he got his penis FLAT and rectangular?
If we're not having fun, then why are we doing it?
These are DISCUSSION boards, not mutual admiration boards. Discussion only occurs when we are willing to hear what others are thinking, regardless of whether it is alignment to our own thoughts.
Does anyone know if JRB wrote any new songs for the movie? Much as I love the show, I must admit that my mind does wander a bit during "The Schmuel Song." I thought the Second Stage production did a nice job with the projections, but it's still a long slog until we finally get to the payoff lines at the end about Cathy.
I'm really curious to see how they expand this for film. Will we see Jamie singing "If I Didn't Believe In You" to Cathy? Will Cathy really show Jamie that she's "smiling?"
"I saw Pavarotti play Rodolfo on stage and with his girth I thought he was about to eat the whole table at the Cafe Momus." - Dollypop