As of right now, I'd say Manville and Coon look like the only locks to me. Squibb will probably be nominated. It's the title role, so I doubt there would be any chance of her being considered in the featured category. And I'm sure the production would petition for leading anyway so as not to conflict with Cynthia Nixon.
I could imagine Metcalf being nominated, but the early closure of Little Bear Ridge Road probably doesn't work in her favor. She went into the season looking like a sure thing, but that fizzled quickly. I figure she'll be nominated in featured for Salesman.
If Byrne wins the Oscar, that could give her big momentum going into the Tonys. Edebiri is a wild card -- it's her first stage role, and she's playing a massive part in a beloved play, where many will still have strong memories of the original production.
"You travel alone because other people are only there to remind you how much that hook hurts that we all bit down on. Wait for that one day we can bite free and get back out there in space where we belong, sail back over water, over skies, into space, the hook finally out of our mouths and we wander back out there in space spawning to other planets never to return hurrah to earth and we'll look back and can't even see these lives here anymore. Only the taste of blood to remind us we ever existed. The earth is small. We're gone. We're dead. We're safe."
-John Guare, Landscape of the Body
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