Lead Actress in a Play 2026

[MaxineElliott]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 5:21am

Possible Options:

1. Jean Smart in Call Me Izzy as Izzy
2. Susannah Flood in Liberation as Lizzie
3. Laurie Metcalf in Little Bear Ridge Road as Sarah
4. Lesley Manville in Oedipus as Jocasta
5. Carrie Coon in Bug as Agnes White
6. Madeline Brewer in Becky Shaw as Becky Shaw
7. Kelli O'Hara in Fallen Angels as Julia Sterroll
8. Rose Byrne in Fallen Angels as Jane Bradbury
9. Ayo Edebiri in Proof as Catherine
10. June Squibb in Marjorie Prime as Marjorie Prime (possible supporting)

Am I missing anyone? who do you think will be the final 5 nominees? I think Lesley Manville is the frontrunner.

..

[TheGingerBreadMan]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 6:32am

- Susannah Flood

- Lesley Manville

- Carrie Coon

- Ayo Edebiri

 Not sure about the fifth slot. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 6:36am

In any other year, Carrie, Leslie, or Laurie would be front runner. I think Lesley has the edge, and Laurie will also have a shot in Featured for Salesman.

As for the other two ladies in the category, it’s anyone’s guess - tho if they love LIBERATION and that’s the best play frontrunner, it would be silly to overlook Flood.

I left Marjorie Prime thinking everyone in it should be placed in Featured.

[WldKingdomHM]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 7:20am

Leslie and the chair that is all. Engrave it now 

[Dolly80]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 7:33am

Lesley is winning this.

[quizking101]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 8:14am

I think they might petition Squibb up to leading so she doesn’t compete against Nixon for Featured. Also, Taraji P. Henson might also be in the mix for JOE TURNER (based on billing).

I have such a soft spot for LBRR and Laurie, but I think Manville (deservedly) has it locked down.

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 2/15/26 at 8:55am

Manville is winning. I truly can't imagine anyone else at this point, even though there are other brilliant contenders. She was just that good in Oedipus and clearly still has all the momentum.

For the other nominees: Coon and Flood I think are in (provided the Tonys do love Liberation as much as we're anticipating). Sight unseen, going to say Edebiri gets in. I believe Squibb will stay leading and either her or Brewer will take the last spot.

Yes, leaving off Metcalf who in any other year would be a lock (and could very well still get in), BUT with a) how strong the year is and b) more importantly, with her being a near lock for Salesman, going to go out on a limb and say they spread the wealth and put all their Metcalf love into Featured, opening up leading spots for other ladies.

Updated On: 2/15/26 at 08:55 AM

[Melissa25]

Posted: 2/16/26 at 4:45am

I loved Manville and Coon. Would be happy if either win but probably a little more happy if Coon gets it.

[AC126748]

Posted: 2/16/26 at 10:42am

As of right now, I'd say Manville and Coon look like the only locks to me. Squibb will probably be nominated. It's the title role, so I doubt there would be any chance of her being considered in the featured category. And I'm sure the production would petition for leading anyway so as not to conflict with Cynthia Nixon.

I could imagine Metcalf being nominated, but the early closure of Little Bear Ridge Road probably doesn't work in her favor. She went into the season looking like a sure thing, but that fizzled quickly. I figure she'll be nominated in featured for Salesman.

If Byrne wins the Oscar, that could give her big momentum going into the Tonys. Edebiri is a wild card -- it's her first stage role, and she's playing a massive part in a beloved play, where many will still have strong memories of the original production.