Valentina3 said: "Amelie didn't have good material, sorry. Unlike Bridges, this show is much more marketable and family friendly. Shuffle Along was an almost excellent show which, from all accounts, suffered from bungled production choices. I think this show has a better chance with the masses, both because of the material, and name recognition."
What those shows do have in common with Marie is they're "legit" musicals that didn't get major Tony recognition and didn't recoup. You could add War Paint, Bandstand, Bright Star, It Shoulda Been You, If/Then, The Last Ship, Amazing Grace, Tuck Everlasting, and Dr. Zhivago to that list, too. "Ballet-heavy musical about art in 19th century France" sounds great to me, but homework-y to most tourist audiences.
Name recognition didn't help Ahrens & Flaherty with Island, Rocky, and Ragtime, and it didn't help Stroman with Big Fish, Bullets Over Broadway, Prince of Broadway, Scottsboro Boys, and Thou Shalt Not. The loyal traditional theatergoers are a finite group of people that mostly attend early in the run and can't sustain a multimillion dollar musical (in this case, probably at least $12m) to recoupment.
Not saying commercial success is impossible, but it would be an uphill battle. As you suggest, Mandy Patinkin might mean a bit at the box office, similar to Kevin Kline, Kelsey Grammer, or John Lithgow, but none of those guys are Bette Midler or Hugh Jackman or Jake Gyllenhaal or Adam Driver.