I disagree. I could absolutely see this winning best musical and quite a few other Tony's. I would imagine that it will have a very strong chance at winning: Musical, Director, Choreographer, Sets, Costumes, Sound, Lighting, Supporting Actor. I do not see book, and music is not eligible. Re lead roles, I do not agree with the critics, but Karen Olivo got great reviews; clearly, she will have competition from Adrienne Warren and possibly Carmen Cusack, if Flying is any good (the premise is questionable to me at this time). Re Aaron Tveit, his reviews were not as strong as Olivo's, but Ben Brantley's 'the role he was born to play' will resonate, and he could be pulled along with the show; in any event, it doesn't look like he will have much / any competition unless maybe if Sunset is good...; a lot of female leads and none of the three revivals I am aware of even have male leads.
So, if it settlers into being a monster hit, I can see it winning 8 to 10 Tonys.