Re theatre size, I think we don't need any more barns like the Gershwin, Marquis, and New Amsterdam. But I do think that we could use more theatres comparable to the seemingly always in demand Shubert, Imperial, Neil Simon, Hershfeld. I am pretty sure that this is in the 1,300 to 1,500 seat range. I may be in the majority, but I feel that there are a lot of musicals that have taken over theatres that have historically been targeted mostly for plays. (Think CFA, DEH, even Waitress and (historically) BOM theatres. Perhaps they could have targeted 1,200 seat theatres, if there were some, and left the traditional non-musical houses for more non-musicals. So, maybe I'd say that I think the gap may be better filled by a few 1,200 - 1,400 seat theatres.
I know there are several potential flaws / assumptions / questions that make that a very complicated issue:
-- Is there a predictable saturation point in terms of number of audience attendees per week or is it more impacted by the product?
-- Is there enough demand by non-musicals for theatres that may not be available during prime theatre going months (vs. mid-July (when the last of the all-too-common limited engagements close, and leave a bunch of empty theatres) until the fall glut begin, when all the new limited engagements take over)?
-- Will the continued increase in quality of particularly Netflix and Amazon Prime dramas play a factor in reducing audiences for serious offerings, given the prices? (There are lots of potential theatergoers out there who really don't know that for shows that are not selling out, it is fairly easy to get tickets in advance with more reasonable, though not necessarily great prices).
-- Are the Majestic, Minskoff, Gershwin, Brooks Atkinson, and Ambassador Theatres pretty much out of commission for the next decade? twenty years? How many will add to that list, e.g., Moulin Rouge (too early to tell), Hadestown (i don't really think so, but it is a monster hit right now), TKAM (if it eventually moves to a smaller theatre).
-- Have we arrived at the time where any real hit is going to run for 5 years?
-- Will tourism continue to be a significant player (dramatically more than it was decades ago) or will recession / a second Trump administration negatively impact that (I try to get my hatred of Trump in whenever I feel it is even remotely possibility), i.e., how dependable will tourism be in the future?
-- Will theatre prices ever get in control again, or at least will there ever be a time when dynamic pricing goes down in a way that ticket purchasers become aware of prices being more affordable?
-- etc., etc., etc.
Re the Hellinger, I don't really expect it to ever come back into the fold, which is a shame. Gorgeous bones (I think far and away the most beautiful on Broadway), and good size. A real shame.