A lot of this is true, but it’s sort of like robbing Peter to pay Paul. First, the salary of the actors argument is not very valid here, Aside from a few people who may have been with the current production for a while, they don’t just pay young people less, and there are still young people coming and going from the current production. This is not really a valid point in the big picture of a budget. Yes, they can automate, but they have to pay for all new systems for that, as well as new lights, costumes, props, etc., and while they will pay less in royalties to the old creatives they’re still going to pay royalties to the new creatives. Also, it’s not going to be any cheaper to rent a theatre or to pay a show’s weekly costs in two years. So yeah, if the new production were to run for a very long time, they’d eventually save some money, but that’s a pretty big gamble to assume an immediate revival would have the kind of longevity required for this to pay off."
Remember that Cameron Mackentosh's aim in "close then open a new production" scenario is to stop having to pay the original creative team or their estates. A reopened Phantom without those financial obligations will let him make more money off the production- likely more than enough to offset the costs involved, Yes, he'd have to pay new creatives but he can just hire folks who will take less than whatever Prince, Lynne, et al were getting,
However, opening the new production too quickly could cause Mackintosh to have some legal issues. At least in the US, parties to a contract must act in "good faith". If the new show opens too quickly it gets harder to justify a "the production was not profitable" argument, especially given the costs you cite (plus the cost of moving out of the Majestic AND presumably restoring it too its original condition). Any new production has to wait long enough for there to be a reasonable argument that there is again enough demand for the show to justify reopening.
While it flies in the face of the above- one thought did occur to me regarding reopening. A new "Phantom" would be the kind of show the Nederlanders might want to reopen the Palace- any updates when it will be ready?
