HogansHero said: "3. The agent for any actor with a film commitment on hold due to the strike is going to have a bailout provision in their client's contract that looks more like off-off-Broadway than Broadway. And if anyone is foolish enough to cast a play around famous people who are "available" because of the strike is likely going to have a rude awakening."
I usually agree with everything you post, as I do with nearly all of what you wrote here, save for this. I do believe, for example, that the sudden 10-week run of the Aubrey Plaza/Christopher Abbott play – directed by another actor, who was in the middle of filming a movie, making his stage debut - is entirely a product of the strike. Even if the strike is settled this month (it won't be), it's going to take weeks for most productions to gear up again – and those are just the ones that were already filming. It's simply not as if the strike gets setted on a Friday and everyone starts shooting on Monday, or even Monday 10 days later. ("Wicked" had 10 days left to shoot, but after sending presumably hundreds of people home from London, it could easily take a few months to get those last 10 days back on the calendar again.)
And for TV projects that had just started filming or were in mid-shoot, in many cases the second half of the season wouldn't even have been written yet, since the writers' strike began 2 months before the actors'. Then you factor in seasonal shooting schedules (some won't be able to start up again in winter), and the holidays (if the strike doesn't get resolved till Oct or Nov) and that adds a whole other level of complications. There's a reason, for example, why Yellowstone, which was originally supposed to return in May, and then in November, is now basically saying they'll be lucky if the final season airs sometime in 2024 (they film in snowy Montana so have always shot April to October, and the script for the new season weren't yet complete - so that's one show that might not go back in production till 9 months from now regardless).
There's a reason they're moving the Emmys from September to January, and it's not because they think the strike will last till New Year's; it's because even after it's resolved, much like Broadway post-pandemic (a problem that TV and film ironically didn't have), it's going to take a few months to get everything back up and running again. Are there performers who'll be theoretically committing to a quick fall run with screen projects that are technically in first position? Sure, but that's often been the case when filming schedules were up in the air... the difference this time is that the agents putting their clients up for those stage shows are already going to have a pretty good idea how long it'll take after strike resolution for each specific movie or TV show to resume filming. My money is on most actors signing for a stage run that ends by first week of 2024 being able to complete most or all of that run.
But you are right, it will resolve, and in the meantime, no, it is certainly not good news overall.