joevitus, this is what I'd say in response to your post and I'll add some additional comments:
- It is true that Audra is 'showered with awards' but she doesn't always win - in fact she has lost 40% of the time, including her most recent nominations. The vast majority of her wins are more than 20 years ago, and in fact she has 'only' won twice for leading roles. If we look at these leading roles - did she really have the same kind of stiff competition that she has now with Nicole? Most of the play nominations also had closed shows by the time of the Tonys and Audra's main musical competition might have been Jan Maxwell again in a closed show. So I don't believe they just 'showered' Audra with Tonys just because I think it just ended up likely being the right choice at the right time (and it would follow that when it's not the right choice it also doesn't happen, as evident in her many losses too). At this point, I don't know if her previous wins are very predictive of another win. If anything, I think it might work against her because people might feel a bit of Audra Tony fatigue and think she doesn't 'need' another one.
- This might be the 'single most important' role but clearly it's not a guaranteed win given both Ethel Merman and Bernadette missed out. I would also suggest that Patti's win is still likely fresh in Voters minds (see the post I wrote in the Gypsy reviews thread with the background)...again an area of potential fatigue
- I don't know if the race narrative really matters anymore. I mean, Nicole is also a person of colour and breaking race precedents too (although I guess she doesn't make it central to the identify of her character or show). I personally think while everyone is trying to create this narrative that the show and casting is groundbreaking (and Audra apparently nervous about audience reaction to it according to her George Clooney interview) ultimately I see it more as marketing hype than anything real......to me it's like they could have gone further but didn't, or can't because it's just not in the script. This reminds me very much of how the Bernadette Sam Mendes Gypsy was meant to be a 'reinvention' of the show but ended up being the same tired old production of Gypsy everyone is used to (although I recognise Arthur Laurents might have held back some of the choices....e.g. as I reference in the Gypsy review thread Sam Mendes apparently wanted Bernadette's face to be broken and dripping with makeup by the end of 'Rose's Turn' but Arthur Laurents wouldn't have it
- I agree with you that staying open in the show vs Nicole closing is a risk, but she still is open in the show and this is not without precedent. I remember Catherine Zeta Jones winning in "A Little Night Music" only for her to depart the show a month or so later (TBH it did make for an exciting last boost of performances that I hope Nicole will enjoy). I wonder if we might get an announcement that the show is going to LA conveniently just before Tony voting opens
Ultimately, I don't think it's a lock for Audra at all at this point. I personally think it's going to Nicole - one of the tests is that we just had the Audra Gypsy cast recording released and it seems like barely anyone is talking about it. It feels like the person most excited about it on this board is...well me. The narrative that Audra's voice isn't quite right for the role seems to be popping up more and more now, and you can also see on show score even some of the positive stars will sometimes suggest Audra's voice not quite right. I don't think this is the kind of praise that leads to a Tony Award - not when you have Nicole S's practically unanimous raves for her vocals.
It's possible that there might be some bitterness of the whole liking of a Russel Brand instagram - for example I can see there are some toxic reddit posts about this issue that won't go away and even hunter Ryan herdlicka posted (publicly!) on Facebook 'never forget' a couple days ago about this issue trying to destroy Nicole (Hunter - you describe yourself as a 'Broadway actor' on Instagram but you have been on Broadway once and 14 years ago, and while you pathetically try and destroy someone who is actually achieving great things unlike yourself, look around if Jonathan Groff can sit down and have a conversation with Nicole treating her as a human being, if Patti can give Nicole raves, and if even 'The View' co-hosts can defend Nicole from this treatment I think you can be a little less toxic yourself). But I get the sense that most Tony voters are more likely mature people not these young toxic people who have been taught to fight, divide, argue rather than get along so they get the dopamine rush of feeling like they are a morally virtuous crusader.
Ultimately, I think Nicole S will win because she (with Jamie Lloyd) have brought a brand new aesthetic and sound to Broadway, completely reinvented a show emphasising its most positive qualities and hiding/covering over the bad, and created exactly that kind of moment that Patti and George Clooney were describing in their interview where you get completely moved and transported into another dimension. Nicole isn't just giving a 'performance' this is actually a historic event - to me Audra feels like a Bernadette in Gypsy situation whereas Nicole is an Alice Ripley in next to normal, Christine Ebersole in Grey Gardens, Jennifer Holiday in Dreamgirls type situation. It's a 'best ever' type vibe and a perfect marriage of material to performer. Audra is fighting against the material and it works for me, but it doesn't work for everyone.
Give me claws and a hunch, just away from this bunch.
Updated On: 4/26/25 at 05:00 AM