Posted: 10/18/17 at 1:46pm
I think it's fair to start pinning this as the likely winner of Best Musical. Let's be honest with ourselves here. Do we really think Tony voters are going to pick SpongeBob or Mean Girls over this? Of course not. Unless Brantley just destroys this (which I doubt he would), this is a lock, as it was really as soon as it got announced.
Now for Shalhoub and Lenk, I do think it's too early to start calling them out as the winners. I don't see a scenario in which one doesn't receive a nomination (Maybe a slew of new shows randomly appear with big male leads that knock out Shalhoub, but that is incredibly unlikely). However, I think it's way to early to claim one as a winner. I already don't think Shalhoub's performance will live up to the expectations I have for both Ethan Slater and Joshua Henry. Likewise, as phenomenal as Lenk is, it's very hard to predict how she'll stack up against Jessie Mueller and Hailey Kilgore until both of those shows open.
So instead of jumping the gun and saying "OH MY GOD KATRINA LENK IS THE BEST ACTRESS SINCE SLICED BREAD" or whatever, let's be patient and wait until April when we can truly evaluate her against her competition. That's when we'll truly know how great her performance was.