The Kristin/Kelli/Chita competition...- Page 13

[mattporter17]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 6:42pm

I'm just gonna leave these here. Discuss.

[Actriz2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:04pm

The Outer Critics Circle awards are voted on by critics that review non-NYC productions. Many if not all of them don't even see the nominated shows. The award is basically a buzz-meter. No surprise Kristin won it since they were voted on and given before both The King and I and The Visit even opened (and I believe The Visit had just started previews).

Why these awards are or ever were considered a viable precursor is beyond me.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:08pm

"The Outer Critics Circle awards are voted on by critics that review non-NYC productions. Many if not all of them don't even see the nominated shows. The award is basically a buzz-meter. No surprise Kristin won it since they were voted on and given before both The King and I and The Visit even opened (and I believe The Visit had just started previews).
Why these awards are or ever were considered a viable precursor is beyond me."

Is that true? I thought they were reviewers and journalists who watched Broadway productions and wrote about them for out-of-town publications. Are their predictions wildly different from the Tony winners? Are their nominees and picks, for the most part, unreasonable?

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 07:08 PM

[mattporter17]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:14pm

The screen shots speak for themselves. Honestly if Kelli wins she'll probably get a standing ovation like Audra last year.

[_IrisTInkerbell]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:16pm

Many have said that OCC nominations are sometimes somewhat unreasonable (mildly put summery of the discussion on here), but statistically, when anyone has won both the OCC and the DAA, their chances of going on to win the Tony are pretty high (I read on Gold Derby 90%), although it is of course not always the case (the other 10% gotta come from something).

I would assume that is why Chita votes have jumped ship to Kristin after Chita lost the DAA to Kristin (with Kelli not even nominated, so the competition was practically only between those 2)

[Actriz2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:20pm

Somebody in the Goldderby message boards articulated it better than I ever could:

"Precursors matter for the Oscars (and to a lesser extent the Emmys) because many of the voters who vote for BAFTA and guild awards also vote for the Oscars and Emmys.

The Tony voters have absolutely zero overlap with the Drama Desk voters. There is also zero overlap with the Outer Critics Circle

The only logical way that a precursor can mean anything is if there is voter overlap. It's unrealistic and laughable to think that Tony voters will look at a list of Drama Desk winners and make their decisions based on that. In the end, they're going to vote based on what they liked the best.

Yes, many OCC+Drama Desk winners go on to win the Tony, but this is more of a sign of an industry consensus (i.e. winners that won the award the day their shows opened - Audra McDonald, Patti Lupone) and we know that is not the case this year. Additionally, there are many OCC+Drama Desk winners that DON'T go on to win (Jefferson Mays last year, Donna Murphy twice, Laura Benanti, Antonio Banderas).

Last year, Anika Larsen and Lauren Worsham tied for Best Featured Actress in a Musical. Both lost at the Tony Awards to Lena Hall, who wasn't even nominated by the Drama Desks."

[UnwoundFantasies]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:23pm

I think it's safe to say that whenever Kelli wins, whether it be this year or not, she will receive a standing ovation.

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 7:34pm

Those are all great points. I just wonder if it's totally meritless to the point where it's not worth it to at least look at what other orgs have chosen just to get an idea of what people are thinking. If the 90% Tony success rate after winning the OCC and Drama Desk is true, then it could be somewhat useful since that's a high rate. Though like you said, you have to look at other factors like whether most of those winners were from years where they were a sure thing, etc.

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 07:34 PM

[Actriz2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 8:03pm

Just a few examples from previous years:

Tony: Lena Hall
Drama Desk: Anika Larsen and Lauren Worsham (Hall not nominated)
OCC: Marin Mazzie (Hall not nominated)

Tony: Gabriel Ebert
Drama Desk: Bertie Carvel (Ebert not nominated)
OCC: Terrence Mann (Ebert not nominated)

Tony: Courtney B. Vance
Drama Desk: Richard Kind (Vance not nominated)
OCC: Tom Sturridge (Vance not nominated)

Tony: Idina Menzel
Drama Desk: Donna Murphy
OCC: Donna Murphy

Tony: Nikki M. James
Drama Desk: Laura Benanti
OCC: Laura Benanti

Tony: Karen Olivio
Drama Desk: Haydn Gwynne
OCC: Haydn Gwynne

Tony: Christian Hoff
Drama Desk: Jim Dale
OCC: Jim Dale

Tony: Jefferson Mays
Drama Desk: Kevin Kline (Mays not nominated)
OCC: Frank Langella (Mays not nominated)

Tony: Audra McDonald
Drama Desk: Tsidii Le Loka (McDonald not nominated)
OCC: Tsidii Le Loka

Tony: Bill Irwin
Drama Desk: Brian F. O'Byrne
OCC: Brian F. O'Byrne (Irwin not nominated)

Tony: David Hyde Pierce
Drama Desk: Raul Esparza 
OCC: Raul Esparza

Tony: Billy Elliot boys
Drama Desk: Brian d'Arcy James (BE boys not nominated/ineligible?)
OCC: Brian d'Arcy James (BE boys not nominated/ineligible?)

Tony: Julie White
Drama Desk: Eve Best (White not nominated)
OCC: Eve Best (White not nominated)

Tony: Cynthia Nixon (Smith ineligible)
Drama Desk: Lois Smith (Nixon not nominated)
OCC: Lois Smith

Tony: Jennifer Ehle (Heckart ineligible)
Drama Desk: Eileen Heckart (Ehle not nominated)
OCC: Eileen Heckart (Ehle not nominated)

Tony: Liev Schreiber
Drama Desk: Michael Stuhlbarg (Schreiber not nominated)
OCC: Jeff Goldblum (Schreiber not nominated)

Tony: Jennifer Ehle
Drama Desk: Martha Plimpton (Ehle not nominated)
OCC: Martha Plimpton (Ehle not nominated)

And I'm sure there's some that I missed.

 

[_IrisTInkerbell]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 10:13pm

And now someone needs to post all the examples across all 4 acting categories where it did happen, and then we can count.

Nobody said "Once the other 2 are won it's a sealed deal". But it becomes more likely. Because it does show some sort of consensus among the community, even if the voters pool doesn't necessarily overlap.

[RingOfKeys2]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 10:18pm

I would explode with happiness if Kristin and Kelli tied. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 10:21pm

I would explode with happiness if they canceled each other out and Chita Rivera won for actually giving the best performance of the year.

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 6/2/15 at 11:12pm

a lot of tony voters I've talked to said they voted for Kristin. On top of the fact that she's already won many awards for her performance and is hosting, I think she's gonna win.

Updated On: 6/2/15 at 11:12 PM

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 7:38am

I mean, watch Cheno go here! She makes it look like a walk in the park

 

https://www.broadwayworld.com/videoplay.php?colid=1023563#.VW7kmetUB6k

[Musical Master]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 1:45pm

After hearing all of this, I think Kristin will steal the award no problem but it would make me happy if either her, Kelli, or Chita win the award I can't choose any favorites.

I think we can all agree that this season has been the most interesting for plays and musicals for it has been in quite a while.

[bjh2114]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 4:23pm

"a lot of tony voters I've talked to said they voted for Kristin."

Because all of us believe you have Tony voter connections. Don't you have a play date you need to get to with the other kids on your street?

[PalJoey]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 5:38pm

Happy to see that Time Out NY's Adam Feldman has come around to his colleague David Cote's belief that Kelli, not Kristin will win the award.

 

2015 Tony Awards predictions Our Tony Awards predictions will give you a leg up on Broadway’s biggest night and this year’s super tight races

[MOUSTACHA]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 5:50pm

Just a couple of points about the race in general:

 

1) The award is for the best performance of an actress in a musical this year.  So, to me, if you believe KC's performance is similar to how she has performed in the past, or if you believe KO's performance is vastly different than what she has taken on previously, it matters not - because all that matters is what they've done this year.  Voters should, in my opinion, try to stay in the tunnel of the year the awards are happening.  I would think getting a "pity tony" would be KO's worst nightmare. 

 

2) Roundabout has been running a much stronger tony campaign.  I've been surprised at how tame Lincoln Center has been in promoting KO when compared to Roundabout.  Campaign performance, while not a deciding factor, certainly matters. 

 

3) Hosting the Tonys does naturally give you bonus points.  Not because voters want to see the host win, but because it gives more press to the candidate.  More positive press never hurt anyone in a Tony race.

 

4)  It's important to remember that the entire performance should be considered.  It's not the Best singing award, or the best acting award - it's the "Best Performance by an Actress in a Musical."  While KO's performance is more nuanced than KC's, that doesn't automatically mean it was a better overall performance.  I would hope that the objective voter would consider the entire work of the nominee when casting their vote.

 

Just a couple of thoughts after catching up on this thread... #notthatmytwocentsmattermuch

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 6:20pm

"Happy to see that Time Out NY's Adam Feldman has come around to his colleague David Cote's belief that Kelli, not Kristin will win the award."

I was really happy to see that as well.

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 7:00pm

Philly: How many voters voted for Kelli?

[Kad]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 7:11pm

""Happy to see that Time Out NY's Adam Feldman has come around to his colleague David Cote's belief that Kelli, not Kristin will win the award."
I was really happy to see that as well."

 Cote and Feldman collaborate on those predictions. They have to give ground on things. 

[ScottyDoesn'tKnow2]

Posted: 6/3/15 at 8:23pm

That Kelli O'Hara prediction came with a pretty subdued write-up. Words like "due" and "respectable" seem to be the running narrative for a lot of the predictors.

Updated On: 6/4/15 at 08:23 PM

[skies]

Posted: 6/4/15 at 2:05am

I wouldn't consider in any way , shape or form a Kelli win as some sort of "Tony pity award".   She would be a contender this or any year for her take on Ana.

[Musical Master]

Posted: 6/4/15 at 2:07am

"I wouldn't consider in any way , shape or form a Kelli win as some sort of "Tony pity award".   She would be a contender this or any year for her take on Ana."

THIS.

[Phillypinto]

Posted: 6/4/15 at 3:03pm

"Philly: How many voters voted for Kelli?"

 I dont know anyone who voted for Kelli. They all said Kristin lol