What do you think of this analysis...
- SHN sold as much of the house as they could for subscribers. Seats were limited to those with equvalents between their two houses (Orpheum 2203, Golden Gate 2297) and excluding obstructed view, pit seats and house seats. They sold the full four weeks of subscriptions (the minimum engagement for subscription tours).
- For Hamilton (4+ months engagement) they split the subscription base to assign them to alternate weeks to open up extra seats and spread the subscriber seats over the first two months of the run. Week 1 subscribers got either week 2 or 3 dates, week 2 subscribers got week 4 or 5 dates... (The preview first week likely had no subscribers).
- Therefore, for weeks 2-9, something less than 50% of the tickets were presold to subscribers.
- A few weeks ago subscribers were allowed to purchase tickets at list prices, no fees, for as many tickets as they have subscriptions. Presumably, most subscribers purchased their other tickets (mostly two) for guests on the same night as their performance. So - most member purchases are concentrated mid-March to mid-May with a lot of availability in June-July.
- Presumably, by that point, they've sold out the equivalent of two months of tickets in a 4.5 month engagement. The great majority would be concentrated at the start of the run.
- Today was Amex pre-sale. It seems that no more than 10% of seats are designated for Amex in most shows I've seen (and usually good, but not the best seats). Anecdotal reports from today seem to fit this. There were no loge, mezz, or balcony seats sold, I believe. The damage from bots and people buying the max six tickets was limited by the size of the Amex block. (and the irritation dealing with the delays of the system gasping under the volume)
Also - for those who missed it, it appears that for today's Amex presale, the queueing software randomized the sequence for those in queue when it opened. So it would increase your odds by having multiple browsers on multiple devices, but it doesn't pay to join the queue extra-early.
Soooo - Come next Monday, my guesses are that there may be 10-20% availability until mid-May, but much more afterward (likely only 20-30% pre-sold to date). More likely to find great seats in the mezz than orchestra for the early months.
Updated On: 12/5/16 at 11:16 PM