HeyMrMusic said: "Sweeney ToddandCamelotare using original orchestrations. Unsure ifParadewill be elegible for the category either since they’re so heavily based on the original orchestrations. I would sayKimberly Akimbo,Shucked, and maybeDancin’would take those slots."
Whoops my bad. Thanks for the clarification. Updating my predictions now. I'll leave Parade in Orchestrations until we know more
I agree, John Clancy’s work, especially his collaborations with Jeanine Tesori, are so wonderful. His orchestrations in Kimberly Akimbo would make a worthy winner of the category. I think he’s a dark horse competing with the flashier big band charts of New York, New York and Some Like It Hot and the Shakespearean pop charts of & Juliet.
jkcohen626 said: "Curious how people are feeling about Alex Joseph Grayson's chances at a nomination.
I still have him getting a nom, but I'm curious how others feel!"
I think both featured categories are wide open and we're going to get several surprise nominations. Grayson is definitely a contender, but I can think of 10-15 performances I wouldn't be shocked to see land in that category.
I also think no one is talking about Dancin', but it should be no surprise if one or two of those performers land nominations. The Tonys love to throw in nods like that (Desmond Richardson in Fosse, Deborah Yates in Contact, Karine Plantadit in Come Fly Away, the whole principle cast of Movin' Out, etc.).
My Musical Category Predictions (I've seen everything except Camelot and & Juliet, both of which I'm seeing in the next few days. I did see & Juliet in London)
Musical & Juliet Kimberly Akimbo New York, New York Shucked Some Like It Hot
Musical Revival Camelot Into the Woods Parade Sweeney Todd
Direction Michael Arden (Parade) Lear deBessonet (Into the Woods) Thomas Kail (Sweeney Todd) Casey Nicholaw (Some Like It Hot) Jessica Stone (Kimberly Akimbo) I could also see Stroman sneaking in over deBessonet or Arden?
Book Robert Horn (Shucked) David Lindsay-Abaire (Kimberly Akimbo) Matthew López & Amber Ruffin (Some Like It Hot) David Thompson (New York, New York) David West Read (& Juliet)
Score Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally (Shucked) David Lindsay-Abaire & Jeanine Tesori (Kimberly Akimbo) Helen Park & Max Vernon (KPOP) Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman (Some Like It Hot) Andrew Lloyd Webber (Bad Cinderella) Honestly, after KA, Shucked, & SLIH, I have no idea what to do here. I could see Almost Famous getting a nod. I could also see the scores of A Christmas Carol, Life of Pi, and Prima Facie getting in there.
Leading Actor J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot) Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd) Ben Platt (Parade) Colton Ryan (New York, New York) Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)
Leading Actress Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd) Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods) Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo) Micaela Diamond (Parade) Phillips Soo (Camelot) I could see Uzele bumping Bareilles or Soo
Featured Actor Justin Cooley (Kimberly Akimbo) Gavin Creel (Into the Woods) Jordan Donica (Camelot) Alex Joseph Grayson (Parade) Gaten Matarazzo (Sweeney Todd) Tough category! Also considered Steven Boyer, Kevin Del Aguila, Kolton Krouse
Featured Actress Carolee Carmello (Bad Cinderella) Robyn Hurder (A Beautiful Noise) Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo) Alex Newell (Shucked) Phillipa Soo (Into the Woods) Another tough category! Also considered Julia Lester, Alli Mauzey, Ruthie Ann Miles, NaTasha Yvette Williams & Betsy Wolfe
Scenic Design Bad Cinderella Kimberly Akimbo New York, New York Some Like It Hot Sweeney Todd
Costume Design Camelot New York, New York Parade Some Like It Hot Sweeney Todd Also considered: 1776, & Juliet, Bad Cinderella, Dancin', KPOP
Lighting Design Dancin' KPOP New York, New York Some Like It Hot Sweeney Todd
Sound Design Kimberly Akimbo New York, New York Parade Some Like It Hot Sweeney Todd
Orchestrations & Juliet Kimberly Akimbo New York, New York Parade (if eligible) Some Like It Hot
Choreography & Juliet Bad Cinderella KPOP New York, New York Some Like It Hot Also considered Sweeney Todd
kurtal said: "Featured Actress Carolee Carmello (Bad Cinderella) Robyn Hurder (A Beautiful Noise) Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo) Alex Newell (Shucked) Phillipa Soo (Into the Woods) Another tough category! Also considered Julia Lester, Alli Mauzey, Ruthie Ann Miles, NaTasha Yvette Williams & Betsy Wolfe"
I think this category is the densest of them all this season. It really could go a million which directions. Though I will say I think Betsy Wolfe is pretty much guaranteed a nomination. She's beloved by the industry, eats up her role, and the role was also nominated for and won the Olivier in 2020.
I personally think the final five will end up being Milligan, Mauzey, Miles, Soo, and Wolfe.
In my dreams there will be a few acting categories with 6 nominees like last year, but I know that it's unlikely with that having been due to voting's COVID rules. Wishful thinking I suppose. Especially Featured Actress in a Musical.
Yeah, I can totally see Betsy getting a nod. I'm flying a little blind on that once since I haven't seen it yet. I definitely may adjust my nominations once I see it next week. I also don't even know if I believe that Carolee will get a nomination.
I don't know about all the nominations for Into the Woods. Yes, it was a beloved production. Yes, the performers were darling, but I just can't believe (at this time), that Into the Woods takes too many spots away from other shows.
"Ok ok ok ok ok ok ok. Have you guys heard about fidget spinners!?" ~Patti LuPone
fashionguru_23 said: "I don't know about all the nominations for Into the Woods. Yes, it was a beloved production. Yes, the performers were darling, but I just can't believe (at this time), that Into the Woods takes too many spots away from other shows."
I think Bareilles, Creel and Soo all still have decent shots, but I'd probably rank them 4th-5th in each of their categories, so definitely not locks by any means. But I agree the season is far too strong for Miller, Henry, Lester, D'Arcy James, etc. to find spots.
Play Predictions - I've seen everything except Prima Facie & The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window (which I'll see next week).
Play Between Riverside and Crazy Fat Ham Good Night, Oscar Leopoldstadt Life of Pi Also considered: Ain't No Mo', Cost of Living, Prima Facie
Play Revival Death of a Salesman A Doll's House The Piano Lesson The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window Topdog/Underdog (if five)
Direction Saheem Ali - Fat Ham Jamie Lloyd - A Doll's House Patrick Marber - Leopoldstadt LaTanya Richardson Jackson - The Piano Lesson Max Webster - Life of Pi Also Considered: A Christmas Carol, AIn't No Mo', Between Riverside and Crazy, Dead of a Salesman, Good Night Oscar, Topdog/Underdog, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Leading Actor Hiran Abeysekera - Life of Pi Marcel Spears - Fat Ham Sean Hayes - Good Night, Oscar Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman Oscar Isaac - The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window Also considered: Jeremy Pope, Nathan Lane, Jefferson Mays, Stephen McKinley Henderson
Leading Actress Rachel Brosnahan - The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window Jessica Chastain - A Doll's House Jodie Comer - Prima Facie Jessica Hecht - Summer, 1976 Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders Also Considered - Laura Linney, Zoê Wanamaker
Featured Actor André De Shields - Death of a Salesman Chris Herbie Holland - Fat Ham Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson Arian Moayed - A Doll's House Brandon Uranowitz - Leopoldstadt Also Considered: David Krumholtz, Gregg Mozgala, Jordan E. Cooper, Ben Rappaport
Featured Actress Sharon D. Clarke - Death of a Salesman Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson Nikki Crawford - Fat Ham Crystal Lucas-Perry - Ain't No Mo' Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living Also Considered: Emily Bergl, D'Arcy Carden, Faye Castelow, Liza Colón-Zayas
Scenic Design Fat Ham Leopoldstadt Life of Pi Peter Pan Goes Wrong The Piano Lesson Also Considered: Death of a Salesman, Good Night Oscar, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Costume Design Good Night, Oscar Leopoldstadt Life of Pi The Piano Lesson The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window Also Considere: Death of a Salesman, Fat Ham, The Kite Runner, Peter Pan Goes Wrong
Lighting Design A Christmas Carol Fat Ham Death of a Salesman Life of Pi The Piano Lesson Also Considered: Good Night Oscar, The Kite Runner, Leopoldstadt, Pictures from Home
Sound Design A Christmas Carol Fat Ham Good Night, Oscar Life of Pi The Piano Lesson Also Considered: Ain't No Mo', The Collaboration, Death of a Salesman, The Kite Runner, Leopoldstadt, Peter Pan Goes Wrong, Prima Facie, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
I think Alli Mauzey is the classic ''second supporting actor'' from a beloved show that also gets the nome because the show gets tons of love. And in her case, she deserves a LOT.
Also, I will find very difficult to believe that ''Sweeney'' won't be the #1 nominated show of the year, with ''Some Like It Hot'' very close.
Can I just say A Christmas Carol is not getting nearly the love it deserves here? It was one of the best shows I've ever seen, it was an astounding 1-actor show, the set was superb, and the puppet was very well done. Dane Laffrey and Lucy Mackinnon should be nominated and potentially winning scenic design and Jefferson Mays should 10000% get best actor.
I think A Christmas Carol definitely makes it into Scenic, Lighting, and Sound Design, plus director. I would love to have Jefferson Mays in there, my only worry is that Lead Actor in a Play is so so competitive that it could go a million different ways. So multiple amazing performances are going to be left out. May's past win (for playing multiple characters) could work against him if they choose to highlight people who haven't been nominated or won before (Wendell Pierce, Hiran Abeysekera, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Corey Hawkins, Oscar Isaac, John David Washington, Sean Hayes. It's stacked).
So I see 3-5 nominations for it (I dont think nominators will put it in Best Play because its all text from Dickens. Many of them will want to reward the many new scripts of this season instead).
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I think A Christmas Carol definitely makes it into Scenic, Lighting, and Sound Design, plus director. I would love to have Jefferson Mays in there, my only worry is that Lead Actor in a Play is so so competitive that it could go a million different ways. So multiple amazing performances are going to be left out. May's past win (for playing multiple characters) could work against him if they choose to highlight people who haven't been nominated or won before (Wendell Pierce, Hiran Abeysekera, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Corey Hawkins, Oscar Isaac, John David Washington, Sean Hayes. It's stacked).
So I see 3-5 nominations for it (I dont think nominators will put it in Best Play because its all text from Dickens. Many of them will want to reward the many new scripts of this season instead)."
Okay that's fair on repetitiveness. I guess for me since it was my first time seeing him, it was a new and astounding experience that I thought was award worthy.
To be clear: I DO think Mays gave an astounding, award worthy performance. I just also think the same thing about all the men I listed. So the problem becomes: who gets left out? I'm just worried that in this tight of a category, Mays might be one of the worthy people left off the list because they could choose to nominate some people who are new to the scene. (Of course, I could be wrong and they will just stick with known quantities and Mays easily gets the votes to be nominated. Lead Actor in a Play is just so insanely hard to call. Even if there is a tie and we get 6 nominees, truly wonderful performances will be omitted).
I think A Christmas Carol could definitely get some technical nods. I'm less bullish on Jefferson Mays getting in. It was a very strong performance, but I think he has two key things working against him (which MayAudra alluded to): 1) he's won before -- although it has been nearly 20 years; and 2) it's Jefferson Mays doing his Jefferson Mays thing very well. There wasn't anything particularly surprising about the performance if you're familiar with his style. Again, not to say it wasn't good. But it was a performer doing very well the thing they're already known for being very good at. I have an instinct that the nominating committee is going to want to reward a mix of newcomers (Spears, Abeyseykera, Isaac) and veterans who don't have acting Tonys (Hayes, McKinley Henderson, Pierce). Pierce does already have a Tony, but it's for producing. That said, there are easily 10-11 performances that I think could break through, so who knows how it will actually shake out.