Understudy Joined: 11/17/17
Here's what I have:
Best Orchestrations:
John Clancy – Kimberly Akimbo
Bill Sherman – & Juliet* // Jason Robert Brown – Parade // Jonathan Tunick – Into The Woods
Charlie Rosen & Bryan Carter – Some Like It Hot*
Sam Davis & Daryl Waters – New York, New York
HeyMrMusic said: "Sweeney ToddandCamelotare using original orchestrations. Unsure ifParadewill be elegible for the category either since they’re so heavily based on the original orchestrations. I would sayKimberly Akimbo,Shucked, and maybeDancin’would take those slots."
Whoops my bad. Thanks for the clarification. Updating my predictions now. I'll leave Parade in Orchestrations until we know more
& Juliet totally slipped my mind. That’s definitely getting in for Orchestrations since it’s not eligible for Score.
Into the Woods isn’t eligible since they use the original orchestrations.
Curious how people are feeling about Alex Joseph Grayson's chances at a nomination.
I still have him getting a nom, but I'm curious how others feel!
BossBroadway said: "Here's what I have:
Best Orchestrations:
"
John Clancy deserves alllll the Tony's (BIG Fun Home fan here, and loving the collaboration between Clancy and Tesori)
I agree, John Clancy’s work, especially his collaborations with Jeanine Tesori, are so wonderful. His orchestrations in Kimberly Akimbo would make a worthy winner of the category. I think he’s a dark horse competing with the flashier big band charts of New York, New York and Some Like It Hot and the Shakespearean pop charts of & Juliet.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/14/11
jkcohen626 said: "Curious how people are feeling about Alex Joseph Grayson's chances at a nomination.
I still have him getting a nom, but I'm curious how others feel!"
I think both featured categories are wide open and we're going to get several surprise nominations. Grayson is definitely a contender, but I can think of 10-15 performances I wouldn't be shocked to see land in that category.
I also think no one is talking about Dancin', but it should be no surprise if one or two of those performers land nominations. The Tonys love to throw in nods like that (Desmond Richardson in Fosse, Deborah Yates in Contact, Karine Plantadit in Come Fly Away, the whole principle cast of Movin' Out, etc.).
Broadway Star Joined: 10/14/21
jkcohen626 said: "Curious how people are feeling about Alex Joseph Grayson's chances at a nomination.
I still have him getting a nom, but I'm curious how others feel!"
I personally thought he delivered the best featured actor performance this season. I would vote for him for the Tony.
Featured Actor Joined: 12/28/21
My Musical Category Predictions
(I've seen everything except Camelot and & Juliet, both of which I'm seeing in the next few days. I did see & Juliet in London)
Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Musical Revival
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd
Direction
Michael Arden (Parade)
Lear deBessonet (Into the Woods)
Thomas Kail (Sweeney Todd)
Casey Nicholaw (Some Like It Hot)
Jessica Stone (Kimberly Akimbo)
I could also see Stroman sneaking in over deBessonet or Arden?
Book
Robert Horn (Shucked)
David Lindsay-Abaire (Kimberly Akimbo)
Matthew López & Amber Ruffin (Some Like It Hot)
David Thompson (New York, New York)
David West Read (& Juliet)
Score
Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally (Shucked)
David Lindsay-Abaire & Jeanine Tesori (Kimberly Akimbo)
Helen Park & Max Vernon (KPOP)
Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman (Some Like It Hot)
Andrew Lloyd Webber (Bad Cinderella)
Honestly, after KA, Shucked, & SLIH, I have no idea what to do here. I could see Almost Famous getting a nod. I could also see the scores of A Christmas Carol, Life of Pi, and Prima Facie getting in there.
Leading Actor
J. Harrison Ghee (Some Like It Hot)
Josh Groban (Sweeney Todd)
Ben Platt (Parade)
Colton Ryan (New York, New York)
Will Swenson (A Beautiful Noise)
Leading Actress
Annaleigh Ashford (Sweeney Todd)
Sara Bareilles (Into the Woods)
Victoria Clark (Kimberly Akimbo)
Micaela Diamond (Parade)
Phillips Soo (Camelot)
I could see Uzele bumping Bareilles or Soo
Featured Actor
Justin Cooley (Kimberly Akimbo)
Gavin Creel (Into the Woods)
Jordan Donica (Camelot)
Alex Joseph Grayson (Parade)
Gaten Matarazzo (Sweeney Todd)
Tough category! Also considered Steven Boyer, Kevin Del Aguila, Kolton Krouse
Featured Actress
Carolee Carmello (Bad Cinderella)
Robyn Hurder (A Beautiful Noise)
Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo)
Alex Newell (Shucked)
Phillipa Soo (Into the Woods)
Another tough category! Also considered Julia Lester, Alli Mauzey, Ruthie Ann Miles, NaTasha Yvette Williams & Betsy Wolfe
Scenic Design
Bad Cinderella
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Costume Design
Camelot
New York, New York
Parade
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Also considered: 1776, & Juliet, Bad Cinderella, Dancin', KPOP
Lighting Design
Dancin'
KPOP
New York, New York
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Sound Design
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Parade
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd
Orchestrations
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Parade (if eligible)
Some Like It Hot
Choreography
& Juliet
Bad Cinderella
KPOP
New York, New York
Some Like It Hot
Also considered Sweeney Todd
Broadway Star Joined: 10/14/21
kurtal said: "Featured Actress
Carolee Carmello (Bad Cinderella)
Robyn Hurder (A Beautiful Noise)
Bonnie Milligan (Kimberly Akimbo)
Alex Newell (Shucked)
Phillipa Soo (Into the Woods)
Another tough category! Also considered Julia Lester, Alli Mauzey, Ruthie Ann Miles, NaTasha Yvette Williams & Betsy Wolfe"
I think this category is the densest of them all this season. It really could go a million which directions. Though I will say I think Betsy Wolfe is pretty much guaranteed a nomination. She's beloved by the industry, eats up her role, and the role was also nominated for and won the Olivier in 2020.
I personally think the final five will end up being Milligan, Mauzey, Miles, Soo, and Wolfe.
Broadway Legend Joined: 1/25/20
In my dreams there will be a few acting categories with 6 nominees like last year, but I know that it's unlikely with that having been due to voting's COVID rules. Wishful thinking I suppose. Especially Featured Actress in a Musical.
Featured Actor Joined: 12/28/21
@ElephantLoveMedley
Yeah, I can totally see Betsy getting a nod. I'm flying a little blind on that once since I haven't seen it yet. I definitely may adjust my nominations once I see it next week. I also don't even know if I believe that Carolee will get a nomination.
I don't know about all the nominations for Into the Woods. Yes, it was a beloved production. Yes, the performers were darling, but I just can't believe (at this time), that Into the Woods takes too many spots away from other shows.
Broadway Legend Joined: 4/14/11
fashionguru_23 said: "I don't know about all the nominations for Into the Woods. Yes, it was a beloved production. Yes, the performers were darling, but I just can't believe (at this time), that Into the Woods takes too many spots away from other shows."
I think Bareilles, Creel and Soo all still have decent shots, but I'd probably rank them 4th-5th in each of their categories, so definitely not locks by any means. But I agree the season is far too strong for Miller, Henry, Lester, D'Arcy James, etc. to find spots.
Having now seen all 15 eligible musicals - here are my nominations
Best Musical
Best Musical Revival
Direction of a Musical
Actor/Musical
Actress/Musical
Featured Actor/Musical (I feel like this will be an extended category this year)
Featured Actress/Musical
Book
Choreography
Original Score
Orchestrations
Scenic Design
Costume Design
Lighting Design
Sound Design
TOTALS
Understudy Joined: 11/17/17
Here are my complete predictions for the musicals.
* Indicates frontrunners to win
Best Musical:
Kimberly Akimbo*
Some Like It Hot*
& Juliet
New York, New York
Shucked
Best Revival of a Musical:
Camelot // Bob Fosse's Dancin’
Sweeney Todd*
Parade
Into The Woods*
Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical:
Victoria Clark – Kimberly Akimbo as Kimberly*
Phillipa Soo – Camelot as Guenivere // Adriana Hicks – Some Like It Hot as Sugar Kane
Lorna Courtney – & Juliet as Juliet // Anna Uzele – New York, New York as Francine
Annaleigh Ashford – Sweeney Todd as Mrs. Lovett*
Micaela Diamond – Parade as Lucille Frank
Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical:
J. Harrison Ghee – Some Like It Hot as Jerry/Daphne*
Josh Groban – Sweeney Todd as Sweeney Todd*
Will Swenson – A Beautiful Noise as Neil Diamond // Colton Ryan - New York, New York as Jimmy
Christian Borle – Some Like It Hot as Joe/Josephine
Ben Platt – Parade as Leo Frank
Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical:
Carolee Carmello – Bad Cinderella as The Stepmother*
Bonnie Milligan – Kimberly Akimbo as Debra*
NaTasha Yvette Williams – Some Like It Hot as Sweet Sue
Betsy Wolfe – & Juliet as Anne
Grace McLean – Bad Cinderella as The Queen // Alli Mauzey – Kimberly Akimbo as Pattie // Alex Newell – Shucked as Lulu
Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical:
Gaten Matarazzo – Sweeney Todd as Tobias Ragg
Alex Joseph Grayson – Parade as Jim Conley*
Justin Cooley – Kimberly Akimbo as Seth
Joseph Donica – Camelot as Lancelot // Kevin Del Aguila – Some Like It Hot as Osgood
Gavin Creel – Into The Woods as Cinderella’s Prince/The Wolf*
Best Direction of a Musical:
Casey Nicholaw – Some Like It Hot
Thomas Kail – Sweeney Todd // Michael Arden – Parade
Susan Stroman – New York, New York // Luke Sheppard – & Juliet
Jessica Stone – Kimberly Akimbo*
Lear deBessonet – Into The Woods*
Best Choreography:
Casey Nicholaw – Some Like It Hot*
Jennifer Weber – & Juliet
Susan Stroman – New York, New York*
Sarah O’Gleby - Shucked
JoAnn Hunter – Bad Cinderella // Jennifer Weber - KPOP
Best Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre:
Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman (music and lyrics) – Some Like It Hot*
Jeanine Tesori & David Lindsay-Abaire (music and lyrics) – Kimberly Akimbo*
Andrew Lloyd Webber & David Zippel (music and lyrics) – Bad Cinderella
Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally (music and lyrics) – Shucked
John Kander & Fred Ebb (music and lyrics) – New York, New York // Andrew T Mackay (music) – Life of Pi
Best Book of a Musical:
Matthew Lopez & Amber Ruffin – Some Like It Hot*
David Lindsay-Abaire – Kimberly Akimbo
Robert Horn – Shucked*
Aaron Sorkin – Camelot // David Thompson & Sharon Washington – New York, New York
David West-Read – & Juliet
Best Scenic Design of a Musical:
Scott Pask – Some Like It Hot*
David Zinn – Kimberly Akimbo
Gabriela Tylesova – Bad Cinderella // Gabriel Hainer Evansohn – KPOP
Mimi Lein – Sweeney Todd
Beowulf Borritt – New York, New York*
Best Costume Design of a Musical:
Gregg Barnes – Some Like It Hot*
Gabriela Tylesova – Bad Cinderella*
Emilio Sosa – Sweeney Todd // Reid Bartelme – Bob Fosse’s Dancin’
Donna Zakowska – New York, New York
Paloma Young – & Juliet
Best Lighting Design of a Musical:
Scott Pask – Some Like It Hot
Jeanette Oi-Suk Yew – Kimberly Akimbo
Ken Billington – New York, New York
Howard Hudson – & Juliet* // David Grill – Bob Fosse's Dancin
Japhy Weideman – Shucked
Best Sound Design of a Musical:
Kai Harada – Kimberly Akimbo
John Shivers – Shucked
Gareth Owen – & Juliet*
Jon Weston – Parade
Peter Fitzgerald & Andrew Keister – KPOP // Peter Hylenski – Bob Fosse’s Dancin’
Best Orchestrations:
John Clancy – Kimberly Akimbo
Bill Sherman – & Juliet* // Jason Robert Brown – Parade // Jonathan Tunick – Into The Woods
Charlie Rosen & Bryan Carter – Some Like It Hot*
Sam Davis & Daryl Waters – New York, New York
Jason Howland – Shucked
Tony Performances:
Kimberly Akimbo
Some Like It Hot
& Juliet
New York, New York
Shucked
Sweeney Todd
Parade
Camelot
Bad Cinderella // A Beautiful Noise
Swing Joined: 10/3/22
As someone who saw all 15 musicals this year here are my predictions
Best Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Best Revival of a Musical
Camelot
Into The Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Performance by a Leading Actor In A Musical
Christian Borle – Some Like It Hot
J. Harrison Ghee – Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ben Platt – Parade
Will Swenson – A Beautiful Noise
Best Performance by a Leading Actress In A Musical
Annaleigh Ashford – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Sara Bareilles – Into The Woods
Victoria Clark – Kimberly Akimbo
Lorna Courtney – & Juliet
Micaela Diamond – Parade
Best Performance by a Featured Actor In A Musical
Kevin Del Aguila – Some Like It Hot
Justin Cooley – Kimberly Akimbo
Gavin Creel – Into The Woods
Jordan Donica – Camelot
Gaten Matarazzo – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Performance by a Featured Actress In A Musical
Carolee Carmello – Bad Cinderella
Bonnie Milligan – Kimberly Akimbo
Alex Newell – Shucked
Phillipa Soo – Into The Woods
Betsy Wolfe – & Juliet
Best Direction of a Musical
Will Arden — Parade
Thomas Kail — Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Bartlett Sher — Camelot
Jessica Stone — Kimberly Akimbo
Susan Stroman — New York, New York
Best Book of a Musical
David West-Read — & Juliet
David Lindsay-Abaire — Kimberly Akimbo
Aaron Sorkin — Camelot
Robert Horn — Shucked
Matthew Lopez & Amber Ruffin — Some Like It Hot
Best Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Jeanine Tesori & David Lindsay-Abaire (music and lyrics) — Kimberly Akimbo
Andrew T Mackay (music) — Life of Pi
Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally (music and lyrics) — Shucked
Marc Shaiman & Scott Wittman (music and lyrics) — Some Like It Hot
Best Choreography
Casey Nicholaw — Some Like It Hot
Sarah O’Gleby — Shucked
Susan Stroman — New York, New York
Jennifer Weber — & Juliet
Jennifer Weber — KPOP
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Gabriela Tylesova – Bad Cinderella
David Zinn – Kimberly Akimbo
Beowulf Boritt – New York, New York
Scott Pask – Some Like It Hot
Mimi Lein – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes – Some Like It Hot
Andrea Hood – Into The Woods
Gabriela Tylesova – Bad Cinderella
Paloma Young – & Juliet
Donna Zakowska – New York, New York
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Howard Hudson – & Juliet
David Grill – Dancin’
Jeanette Oi-Suk Yew – Kimberly Akimbo
Japhy Weideman – Shucked
Natasha Katz – Some Like It Hot
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Gareth Owen – & Juliet
Kai Harada – Kimberly Akimbo
Jon Weston – Parade
John Shivers – Shucked
Nevin Steinberg – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Orchestrations
Bill Sherman – & Juliet
John Clancy – Kimberly Akimbo
Sam Davis & Daryl Waters – New York, New York
Jason Howland – Shucked
Charlie Rosen & Bryan Carter – Some Like It Hot
Nominations Round Up
& Juliet - 9 Nominations
1776 - 0 Nominations
A Beautiful Noise - 1 Nomination
Almost Famous - 0 Nominations
Bad Cinderella - 3 Nominations
Camelot - 4 Nominations
Dancin' - 1 Nomination
Into The Woods - 5 Nominations
Kimberly Akimbo - 11 Nominations
KPOP - 1 Nomination
New York, New York - 6 Nominations
Parade - 5 Nominations
Shucked - 8 Nominations
Some Like It Hot - 11 Nominations
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - 7 Nominations
Featured Actor Joined: 12/28/21
Play Predictions - I've seen everything except Prima Facie & The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window (which I'll see next week).
Play
Between Riverside and Crazy
Fat Ham
Good Night, Oscar
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Also considered: Ain't No Mo', Cost of Living, Prima Facie
Play Revival
Death of a Salesman
A Doll's House
The Piano Lesson
The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Topdog/Underdog (if five)
Direction
Saheem Ali - Fat Ham
Jamie Lloyd - A Doll's House
Patrick Marber - Leopoldstadt
LaTanya Richardson Jackson - The Piano Lesson
Max Webster - Life of Pi
Also Considered: A Christmas Carol, AIn't No Mo', Between Riverside and Crazy, Dead of a Salesman, Good Night Oscar, Topdog/Underdog, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Leading Actor
Hiran Abeysekera - Life of Pi
Marcel Spears - Fat Ham
Sean Hayes - Good Night, Oscar
Wendell Pierce - Death of a Salesman
Oscar Isaac - The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Also considered: Jeremy Pope, Nathan Lane, Jefferson Mays, Stephen McKinley Henderson
Leading Actress
Rachel Brosnahan - The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Jessica Chastain - A Doll's House
Jodie Comer - Prima Facie
Jessica Hecht - Summer, 1976
Audra McDonald - Ohio State Murders
Also Considered - Laura Linney, Zoê Wanamaker
Featured Actor
André De Shields - Death of a Salesman
Chris Herbie Holland - Fat Ham
Samuel L. Jackson - The Piano Lesson
Arian Moayed - A Doll's House
Brandon Uranowitz - Leopoldstadt
Also Considered: David Krumholtz, Gregg Mozgala, Jordan E. Cooper, Ben Rappaport
Featured Actress
Sharon D. Clarke - Death of a Salesman
Danielle Brooks - The Piano Lesson
Nikki Crawford - Fat Ham
Crystal Lucas-Perry - Ain't No Mo'
Katy Sullivan - Cost of Living
Also Considered: Emily Bergl, D'Arcy Carden, Faye Castelow, Liza Colón-Zayas
Scenic Design
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Peter Pan Goes Wrong
The Piano Lesson
Also Considered: Death of a Salesman, Good Night Oscar, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Costume Design
Good Night, Oscar
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
The Piano Lesson
The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Also Considere: Death of a Salesman, Fat Ham, The Kite Runner, Peter Pan Goes Wrong
Lighting Design
A Christmas Carol
Fat Ham
Death of a Salesman
Life of Pi
The Piano Lesson
Also Considered: Good Night Oscar, The Kite Runner, Leopoldstadt, Pictures from Home
Sound Design
A Christmas Carol
Fat Ham
Good Night, Oscar
Life of Pi
The Piano Lesson
Also Considered: Ain't No Mo', The Collaboration, Death of a Salesman, The Kite Runner, Leopoldstadt, Peter Pan Goes Wrong, Prima Facie, The Sign in Sidney Brustein's Window
Broadway Legend Joined: 3/24/14
I think Alli Mauzey is the classic ''second supporting actor'' from a beloved show that also gets the nome because the show gets tons of love. And in her case, she deserves a LOT.
Also, I will find very difficult to believe that ''Sweeney'' won't be the #1 nominated show of the year, with ''Some Like It Hot'' very close.
I think that in addition to performances from the nominated musicals and the "In Memoriam", we will also see Lea Michele perform from Funny Girl.
Understudy Joined: 3/25/23
Can I just say A Christmas Carol is not getting nearly the love it deserves here? It was one of the best shows I've ever seen, it was an astounding 1-actor show, the set was superb, and the puppet was very well done. Dane Laffrey and Lucy Mackinnon should be nominated and potentially winning scenic design and Jefferson Mays should 10000% get best actor.
I think A Christmas Carol definitely makes it into Scenic, Lighting, and Sound Design, plus director. I would love to have Jefferson Mays in there, my only worry is that Lead Actor in a Play is so so competitive that it could go a million different ways. So multiple amazing performances are going to be left out. May's past win (for playing multiple characters) could work against him if they choose to highlight people who haven't been nominated or won before (Wendell Pierce, Hiran Abeysekera, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Corey Hawkins, Oscar Isaac, John David Washington, Sean Hayes. It's stacked).
So I see 3-5 nominations for it (I dont think nominators will put it in Best Play because its all text from Dickens. Many of them will want to reward the many new scripts of this season instead).
Understudy Joined: 3/25/23
MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "I think A Christmas Carol definitely makes it into Scenic, Lighting, and Sound Design, plus director. I would love to have Jefferson Mays in there, my only worry is that Lead Actor in a Play is so so competitive that it could go a million different ways. So multiple amazing performances are going to be left out. May's past win (for playing multiple characters) could work against him if they choose to highlight people who haven't been nominated or won before (Wendell Pierce, Hiran Abeysekera, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Corey Hawkins, Oscar Isaac, John David Washington, Sean Hayes. It's stacked).
So I see 3-5 nominations for it (I dont think nominators will put it in Best Play because its all text from Dickens. Many of them will want to reward the many new scripts of this season instead)."
Okay that's fair on repetitiveness. I guess for me since it was my first time seeing him, it was a new and astounding experience that I thought was award worthy.
To be clear: I DO think Mays gave an astounding, award worthy performance. I just also think the same thing about all the men I listed. So the problem becomes: who gets left out? I'm just worried that in this tight of a category, Mays might be one of the worthy people left off the list because they could choose to nominate some people who are new to the scene. (Of course, I could be wrong and they will just stick with known quantities and Mays easily gets the votes to be nominated. Lead Actor in a Play is just so insanely hard to call. Even if there is a tie and we get 6 nominees, truly wonderful performances will be omitted).
Featured Actor Joined: 12/28/21
I think A Christmas Carol could definitely get some technical nods. I'm less bullish on Jefferson Mays getting in. It was a very strong performance, but I think he has two key things working against him (which MayAudra alluded to): 1) he's won before -- although it has been nearly 20 years; and 2) it's Jefferson Mays doing his Jefferson Mays thing very well. There wasn't anything particularly surprising about the performance if you're familiar with his style. Again, not to say it wasn't good. But it was a performer doing very well the thing they're already known for being very good at. I have an instinct that the nominating committee is going to want to reward a mix of newcomers (Spears, Abeyseykera, Isaac) and veterans who don't have acting Tonys (Hayes, McKinley Henderson, Pierce). Pierce does already have a Tony, but it's for producing. That said, there are easily 10-11 performances that I think could break through, so who knows how it will actually shake out.
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