WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 14

[BdwyFan]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 3:13pm

Agree. It’s important to understand the landscape. 

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 9:12pm

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

• Andrew Burnap - Camelot  ***
• Ben Platt - Parade
• Brian d'Arcy James - Into The Woods
• J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like It Hot ***
• Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd                                                         
  *** Tight race between Burnap and Ghee

[Robbie2]

Posted: 3/30/23 at 9:28pm

Best Leading Actress in a Musical 

• Annaleigh Ashford - Sweeney Todd
• Micaela Diamond - Parade
• Phillipa Soo - Camelot
• Sarah Bareilles - Into The Woods
• Victoria Clark - Kimberly Akimbo ***

***WINNER 

[uncageg]

Posted: 3/31/23 at 10:09pm

I am going out on a limb and predicting that Justin Cooley will be nominated for Best Leading Actor in a Musical and win it.

For me, so far he is giving the best leading male performance on Broadway. I don't completely follow the eligibility announcements so maybe he won't. But if he is eligible and is nominated, I predict a win for him. JMO

[PianoMann]

Posted: 3/31/23 at 10:15pm

uncageg said: "I am going out on a limb and predicting that Justin Cooley will be nominated for Best Leading Actor in a Musical and win it.

For me, so far he is giving the best leading male performance on Broadway. I don't completely follow the eligibility announcements so maybe he won't. But if he is eligible and is nominated, I predict a win for him. JMO"

The Administration Committee already met on Kimberly and deemed only Victoria eligible in Lead, so Justin will be in Featured.

[uncageg]

Posted: 3/31/23 at 10:56pm

PianoMann said: "uncageg said: "I am going out on a limb and predicting that Justin Cooley will be nominated for Best Leading Actor in a Musical and win it.

For me, so far he is giving the best leading male performance on Broadway. I don't completely follow the eligibility announcements so maybe he won't. But if he is eligible and is nominated, I predict a win for him. JMO"

The Administration Committee already met on Kimberly and deemed only Victoria eligible in Lead, so Justin will be in Featured."

 

Thanks, As mentioned I don't keep up unless I catch it here.  I would so love to have seen him win in the Leading category. 

 

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/31/23 at 11:07pm

Robbie2 said: "Best Leading Actor in a Musical

• Andrew Burnap - Camelot ***
• Ben Platt - Parade
• Brian d'Arcy James - Into The Woods
• J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like It Hot ***
• Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd
  *** Tight race between Burnap and Ghee

"

Burnap doesn’t even crack the list for me. I’d sooner see Borle or Ryan ahead of Burnap. (Maybe not Swenson though. Yikes!

[noahseestheatre]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 2:31pm

Still no word on where or IF Alex Newell will be eligible?

[dramamama611]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 2:38pm

Why wouldn't he be eligible?   I haven't seen the show....so is there some debate on what category he should be placed - do you mean m or f ? Or leading/supporting?

Updated On: 4/11/23 at 02:38 PM

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 3:47pm

dramamama611 said: "Why wouldn't he be eligible? I haven't seen the show....so is there some debate on what category he should be placed - do you mean m or f ? Or leading/supporting?"

Actor or actress.

I haven't seen Shucked yet, but I believe Newell's character is a cisgender woman and Newell now more explicitly identifies as non-binary.

I hope that however they're being campaigned by the producers that it's with their support and consent. But, taking those two factors into the account, I feel like it would be quite the slap in the face to Newell and all trans and non-binary performers to say that the gender identity of both actor and character are irrelevant and only gender assigned at birth is.

[TaffyDavenport]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 4:04pm

Newell considers himself gender-nonconforming, and uses all pronouns. However, yes, the character he's playing is cisgendered woman, and his understudy is a cisgendered woman, as well, so I wouldn't be surprised if that results in opting for the Featured Actress category.

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 4:19pm

I saw the five musicals I think will be nominated for Best...

& JULIET
KIMBERLY AKIMBO
NEW YORK, NEW YORK
SHUCKED
SOME LIKE IT HOT

Aside from that, do you think we'd get a sixth nominee like last year? If so, I'd think it'd be A Beautiful Noise or Almost Famous. The former because it's tourable, still running, biomusical, etc. and the latter would be because it feels like it had a better reception from what I have read on the boards, has an upcoming album, based on the award-winning film, could also tour, etc.

My five nominees for score would be:

ALMOST FAMOUS
KIMBERLY AKIMBO
NEW YORK, NEW YORK (if deemed eligible)
SHUCKED
SOME LIKE IT HOT

I could see one of these five interchanged for KPOP, and I just don't really think Bad Cinderella will get the votes, but never underestimate Andrew Lloyd Webber's draw... plus it'd mean he could be in attendance at the ceremony.

And I think my Best Musical nom predictions could also fill the Best Book category.

I could see Kimberly Akimbo taking these big three, but with everything so varied in style, it would also be cool to have some wealth spread across all categories. I really thought the five shows I saw were very strong in different respects. Like NY, NY possibly snagging Choreography and Scenic Design, for example and SLIH or &J for Costumes. I even thought Shucked's orchestrations were really fun and helped bring that score to life. And this doesn't count the revivals.

Either way, thrilled I was able to see these five, plus Sweeney. Wish I could catch everything... and the closed shows are missed.

[Sauja]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 4:22pm

Robbie2 said: "Best Leading Actor in a Musical

• Andrew Burnap - Camelot ***
• Ben Platt - Parade
• Brian d'Arcy James - Into The Woods
• J. Harrison Ghee - Some Like It Hot ***
• Josh Groban - Sweeney Todd
  *** Tight race between Burnap and Ghee

"

Really interesting take. I think Ghee is for sure the front runner, but Burnap to me doesn't feel like the closest runner up, let alone in a tight race. I could be waaaaay off the mark, but even though I thought Burnap was one of the best things about a deeply mediocre production, I've also heard from folks who specifically found his performance underpowered. I disagree with that take, but regardless...I'm super curious if your take on his chances is based on personal estimation, word of mouth, or some other factor. In my mind, Platt is the closest to overtaking Ghee but having already won Leading Actor for his only other Broadway role, I suspect folks will feel comfortable voting elsewhere, even if he's a personal fave. I'd personally give the award to D'Arcy James, but that production having closed so long ago makes me think it's an incredibly long shot to take on shows that are currently running in almost any category.

[IdinaBellFoster]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 5:13pm

Burnap winning two Tonys so quickly would be…odd. My money would be on Ghee or Platt.

[CoffeeBreak]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 5:25pm

Hope it's Burtnap.  He gives the strongest and most neuanced performance.  Platt and the less impressive schmacty Ghee are fine enough and deserve nominations but not the win.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 5:31pm

jacobsnchz14 said: My five nominees for score would be:

ALMOST FAMOUS
KIMBERLY AKIMBO
NEW YORK, NEW YORK (if deemed eligible)
SHUCKED
SOME LIKE IT HOT

I could see one of these five interchanged for KPOP, and I just don't really think Bad Cinderella will get the votes, but never underestimate Andrew Lloyd Webber's draw... plus it'd mean he could be in attendance at the ceremony.

And I think my Best Musical nom predictions could also fill the Best Book category.
 

I don't see NY, NY qualifying as an original score. It's more likely that 1 or more plays take a slot in Original Score -- Rebecca Lucy Taylor's score in PRIMA FACIE is exceptionally strong.

 

 

Updated On: 4/12/23 at 05:31 PM

[pethian]

Posted: 4/11/23 at 10:19pm

I agree about the score for NYNY likely not qualifying based on what's been reported here about the individual songs. But I look forward to seeing it.

Was the score for ALMOST FAMOUS more than 50% original? I don't recall.

Updated On: 4/11/23 at 10:19 PM

[jacobsnchz14]

Posted: 4/12/23 at 2:47pm

JSquared2 said: "jacobsnchz14 said:My five nominees for score would be:

ALMOST FAMOUS
KIMBERLY AKIMBO
NEW YORK, NEW YORK (if deemed eligible)
SHUCKED
SOME LIKE IT HOT

I could see one of these five interchanged for KPOP, and I just don't really think Bad Cinderella will get the votes, but never underestimate Andrew Lloyd Webber's draw... plus it'd mean he could be in attendance at the ceremony.

And I think my Best Musical nom predictions could also fill the Best Book category.


I don't see NY, NY qualifying a an original score. It's more likely that 1 or more plays take a slot in Original Score -- Rebecca Lucy Taylor's score inPRIMA FACIEis exceptionally strong."

I could definitely see that or something like Life Of Pi. Both have released their scores on streaming platforms/CD.

[Javert_Lovert]

Posted: 4/13/23 at 9:40am

I saw Good Night, Oscar last night and I have zero doubt that Sean Hayes will get nominated for Best Actor in Play. What are his chances of winning?

[qafgenius122]

Posted: 4/13/23 at 7:34pm

His chances are very high. The award is likely between him, Oscar Isaac and Stephen McKinley Henderson, imo. I do feel he has the edge however.

[JasonC3]

Posted: 4/13/23 at 8:25pm

I think Hayes gets the edge because this role and his performance will bring out the "I didn't know he had this in him" votes.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/13/23 at 11:38pm

My current predictions in the musicals categories (I don't follow plays closely enough). I named the shows for all categories except the acting roles just for time's sake so I didn't have to look up all the individual names. Only reason I didn't do that with actors is obviously there could be more than one actor in a category for the same show.

Musical: Kimberly Akimbo, New York New York, Shucked, Some Like It Hot, & Juliet
Revival: Sweeney Todd, Parade, Into the Woods, Camelot
Lead Actress: Clark, Ashford, Diamond, Bareilles, Uzele
Lead Actor: Groban, Ghee, Platt, Borle, Ryan
Featured Actress: Milligan, Wolfe, Williams, Miles, Soo
Featured Actor: Cooley, Creel, Donica, Matarazzo, Newell (if eligible)
Director: Sweeney Todd, Kimberly Akimbo, Some Like It Hot, Parade, Shucked
Score: Kimberly Akimbo, Shucked, Some Like It Hot, Life of Pi, Almost Famous
Book: Kimberly Akimbo, Shucked, Some Like It Hot, New York New York, & Juliet
Choreography: Some Like It Hot, New York New York, & Juliet, Shucked, Camelot
Scenic Design: Kimberly Akimbo, New York New York, Sweeney Todd, Parade, Shucked
Costume Design: New York New York, Some Like It Hot, Sweeney Todd, Parade, & Juliet
Lighting Design: New York New York, Some Like It Hot, Sweeney Todd, & Juliet, Camelot
Sound Design: Kimberly Akimbo, New York New York, Some Like It Hot, Sweeney Todd, Parade
Orchestrations: New York New York, Some Like It Hot, Parade, Kimberly Akimbo, Shucked

So in this scenario, the nomination totals would be:
Some Like It Hot: 12
Sweeney Todd: 10
New York, New York: 10
Kimberly Akimbo: 10
Parade: 8
Shucked: 8
& Juliet: 6
Camelot: 4
Into the Woods: 4
Almost Famous: 1
A Beautiful Noise, KPop, Bad Cinderella, 1776, Dancin: 0

Updated On: 4/14/23 at 11:38 PM

[BossBroadway]

Posted: 4/14/23 at 12:02am

Almost all the reviews praised the design elements of Bad Cinderella. I wouldn't count them out of Costume, Scenic, or even Lighting Design. And depending on if NYNY is eligible for Best Score, BC could sneak in there too. I also think Carolee is a locked nomination for Featured Actress, she received universal praise. 

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 4/14/23 at 12:39am

BossBroadway said: "Almost all the reviews praised the design elements of Bad Cinderella. I wouldn't count them out of Costume, Scenic, or even Lighting Design. And depending on if NYNY is eligible for Best Score, BC could sneak in there too. I also think Carolee is a locked nomination for Featured Actress, she received universal praise."

I agree Bad Cinderella could sneak into some of those categories. But there's part of me that thinks it's gonna get absolutely zero nominations as just a rejection of the show. In the same way that acclaimed shows sometimes get nominated for categories they have no business getting nominated for as part of a runaway train, I think the same can happen on the other side of the coin for rejected shows. Carolee or Costume Design would be the most likely for BC though I agree.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/14/23 at 12:42am

Sweeney Todd and Camelot are using original orchestrations. Unsure if Parade will be elegible for the category either since they’re so heavily based on the original orchestrations. I would say Kimberly Akimbo, Shucked, and maybe Dancin’ would take those slots.