WAY TOO EARLY 2023 Tony Award Predictions- Page 3

[gubler1996]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:17am

willrolandsframes said: "One season of Broadway has come and gone, so let’s make some bold predictions for next year! Who are the early frontrunners? Who should we keep our eyes on? Are there any shows eyeing Broadway that are ripe for an award? Let’s discuss!"

Best Musical

• Kimberly Akimbo (don't see a world where it doesn't win after sweeping all the Off BWay awards)
• KPOP
• & Juliet
• Back to the Future (assuming it transfers in time)
• A Beautiful Noise OR Almost Famous (depends how Almost Famous is received)
• Wildcard: One Upon a One More Time

Best Musical Revival 

• Into The Woods
• Camelot
• 1776
• Wildcards: Sweeney (if it happens), Pal Joey (if it happens)

Score

• Kimberly Akimbo (No brainer win here)
• KPOP
• Back to the Future
• Some Like It Hot
• Almost Famous
• Wildcard: Devil Wears Prada

Book

• Kimberly Akimbo (Again, probably a no brainer)
• Back to the Future
• Almost Famous
• & Juliet
• Some Like It Hot or Once Upon a One More Time
• Wild Card: Devil Wears Prada

Actress Musical

• Victoria Clark (Will be near impossible to lose - will likely get her DL Dist. Perf. award too)
• Beth Leavel
• Sara Bareilles
• Patina Miller
• Lots of "IF's" here...whoever is leading KPOP (Ashley Park was nominated for most of the Off-Broadway awards when she played MwE), Annaleigh Ashford if Sweeney happens, Taylor Iman Jones depending how Devil Wears Prada does, Lorna Courtney for & Juliet is a likely option, Adrianna Hicks could get her first nom for Some Like It Hot, this last slot will be a tough one 

Actor Musical

• Brian d'Arcy James 
• Will Swenson 
• Christian Borle (sigh...another straight man in a dress being nominated for awards)
• J. Harrison Ghee
• Chris Wood
• Wildcards: Olly Dobson and/or Roger Bart (if BTTF transfers and they're in it?), Josh Groban if Sweeney happens, whoever ends up in Camelot

Featured Actress Musical

• Bonnie Milligan (HOPEFULLY winner)
• Betsy Wolfe
• Julia Lester
• Solea Pfeiffer or Anika Larsen
• Robyn Hurder
• Wildcards: The 1776 cast, KPOP cast, Phillipa Soo, Alli Mauzey, many options here

Featured Actor Musical

• Paulo Szot
• Justin Cooley
• Steven Boyer
• Gavin Creel
• Wildcards: Mark Jacoby, Drew Gehling, Camelot cast, Sweeny cast

Play

• Leopoldstadt
• Between Riverside and Crazy
• Cost of Living
• Prima Facie
• Thanksgiving Play
• Wildcards: The Kite Runner

Play Revival

• Death of a Salesman
• The Piano Lesson
• Topdog/Underdog

 

Actress Play

• Jodie Comer
• Audra McDonald
• Heidi Schreck
• Katy Sullivan
• A couple options here, most depending where Sharon D Clarke falls between Lead and Featured. Sure there will be plenty more competition here as the season approaches and ramps up. 

Actor Play

• Gregg Mozgala 
• Wendell Pierce
• Samuel L Jackson
• Bobby Cannavale 
• Corey Hawkins
• Wildcards: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Keanu Reeves (depending what category?), Amir Arison, whoever ends up leading Between Riverside and Crazy

Featured Actress Play

• Danielle Brooks
• Alia Shawkat
• Caissie Levy (could her overdue nomination finally be for a play?) 
• Azita Ghanizada
• Sharon D Clarke (depending what category she ends up in - typically Linda is Featured at the Tonys)
• Wildcards: Leopoldstadt cast, many others to come

Featured Actor Play

• Andre De Shields
• Khris Davis
• Michael Potts
• John David Washington
• Wild Cards: Ray Fisher, Trai Byers, Leopoldstadt cast, many others to come

 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:21am

gubler1996 said: "Keanu Reeves (depending what category?)"

 

!!!
What rumor did I miss?? Is the Keanaissance extending to Broadway??

 

[gubler1996]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:23am

He's going to be in Thanksgiving Play! 

[JBroadway]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:27am

gubler1996 said: "He's going to be in Thanksgiving Play!"

 

I know he was in the pandemic Zoom production - but you've heard inside info that he's going to do it on Broadway?

[Stephen75]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:27am

What shows are Bobby Cannavale and Alia Shawkat going to be in?

[BroadwayGuy12]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:32am

The cast for The Thanksgiving Play hasn't been announced, and this is a new production, with a different director than both the Playwrights Horizons production (directed by Moritz von Stuelpnagel) and the online reading produced during the pandemic (directed by Leigh Silverman). I suppose it's possible that those involved with virtual production (Keanu Reeves, Heidi Schreck, Bobby Cannavale, Alia Shawkat) could return for the Broadway run, but I wouldn't make that assumption (unless you have access to inside information that I'm not privy to).

[gubler1996]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 11:46am

My fault! I read over the production details too quickly and thought it stated that the virtual cast was carrying over to the Broadway production. 

[quizking101]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 12:37pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "Ah thank you. I hadn't seen that thread.

In that case I'll hold out hope the other casting I know of from a recent workshop comes together. Though it has apparently been difficult to get the Coleman estate to agree to a major production that starred someone "non-traditional" as Charity...which is beyond frustrating considering the conversations the industry has been having about inclusion and diversity."

I’m not sure what you mean by “non-traditional” casting. If you mean to imply an African-American woman in the role, Debbie Allen did that already in 1986. (Though I know DeBose identifies as Afro-Latina)

[Lauren2]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 3:16pm

I don’t know why people think Paulo is going to be nominated or even win. I saw the show in London and honestly that part was one of my least favorites. Just don’t see much better there, there are better parts in that show. If anything I would think Stark as Shakespeare or Ben as Romeo would be nominated. Unless this is a bad year and there is no one to pick from maybe he will be nominated or win and from the shows coming I don’t think it will be a bad year. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 3:22pm

Lauren2 said: "I don’t know why people think Paulo is going to be nominated or even win. I saw the show in London and honestly that part was one of my least favorites. Just don’t see much better there, there are better parts in that show. If anything I would think Stark as Shakespeare or Ben as Romeo would be nominated. Unless this is a bad year and there is no one to pick from maybe he will be nominated or win and from the shows coming I don’t think it will be a bad year."

& Juliet will not be getting many noms (if any). In a perfect world, it will probably make a strong case for Costume Design and Orchestrations.

If the cast is INCREDIBLE, the show might get another nom or two. 

[MayAudraBlessYou2]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 4:39pm

quizking101 said: "I’m not sure what you mean by “non-traditional” casting. If you mean to imply an African-American woman in the role, Debbie Allen did that already in 1986. (Though I know DeBose identifies as Afro-Latina)"

I was referring to a trans performer (and "non-traditional" was apparently the estate's language. It was not my own descriptor)

[Ke3]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 10:20pm

MayAudraBlessYou2 said: "quizking101 said: "I’m not sure what you mean by “non-traditional” casting. If you mean to imply an African-American woman in the role, Debbie Allen did that already in 1986. (Though I know DeBose identifies as Afro-Latina)"

I was referring to a trans performer (and "non-traditional" was apparently the estate's language. It was not my own descriptor)"

I was really hoping this is what you meant. That makes any potential Charity revival that much more exciting. There are a few trans performers I could see in that role, although MJ Rodriguez is the only one of them who dances. 

On a different subject, it's interesting that nobody is including Audra in these predictions. I don't think she'll win, but I haven't even seen her listed as a nomination. I know it's not a musical, but she does have two play wins. Three if you count the play with music that's really just a biomusical.

[JBroadway]

Posted: 8/5/22 at 10:57pm

Ke3 said: "it's interesting that nobody is including Audra in these predictions. I don't think she'll win, but I haven't even seen her listed as a nomination."

 

...probably because Ohio State Murders isn't officially confirmed. Not saying one can't predict a nomination from a not-yet-confirmed show, but it makes sense that most people wouldn't think to do so. I'd expect most people are making their predictions while referring to some sort of list of upcoming shows, and most of those lists won't have Ohio State Murders on it yet.

 

[Bettyboy72]

Posted: 8/6/22 at 1:12am

The only thing I can surely say is I think Sara Bareilles will be nominated and will win. She has become a huge player in the Broadway community and has turned in a phenomenal performance in Into The Woods. 

[BroadwayGirl107]

Posted: 8/6/22 at 4:52pm

Bettyboy72 said: "The only thing I can surely say is I think Sara Bareilles will be nominated and will win. She has become a huge player in the Broadway community and has turned in a phenomenal performance in Into The Woods."

Agreed! I also think there’s a sense that Waitress was overlooked because it was nominated the same year as Hamilton AND she did great work taking over as Jenna in that show. I think folks are eager to give her an award. 

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 8/6/22 at 5:08pm

A Barielles win would be amazing and highly deserved in many ways.

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 8/6/22 at 5:17pm

Besides Bareilles, who else from Into the Woods possibly gets acting noms? With such an embarrassment of riches in this company, it’s a very good question to ask. 
Especially because the design elements will likely be shunned. 

[OuttaTowner]

Posted: 8/6/22 at 5:22pm

I’d like to think we might see Gavin get another supporting nom. He’s a riot in this, and sings like a dream. 

[BJR]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 7:44am

Bettyboy72 said: "The only thing I can surely say is I think Sara Bareilles will be nominated and will win. She has become a huge player in the Broadway community and has turned in a phenomenal performance in Into The Woods."

I think a nom is a certainty now. I think whether she wins might depend how long she's in it. If she's still in it next spring (unlikely), then definitely. If she departs fairly soon, my guess is just a nod.

 

[kurtal]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 8:50am

I wonder if any of the ITW cast might leave this fall and then, if the show extends through the spring, they come back for a Tonys push.

[InTheBathroom1]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 8:58am

EDSOSLO858 said: "Besides Bareilles, who else fromInto the Woodspossibly gets acting noms? With such an embarrassment of riches in this company, it’s a very good question to ask.
Especially because the design elements will likely be shunned."

I think the best shot is Julia Lester in supporting. What a performance. 

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 10:28am

Besides Sara winning, I absolutely also see Gavin & Julia being nominated. 

[ElephantLoveMedley]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 11:03am

I certainly think Phillipa Soo could be nominated in Featured Actress for her Cinderella. Her performance is so beautifully sung and shows her surprisingly strong comedic chops in addition to her heart and depth in Act 2. I thought she was a total standout in this cast. (Plus, the role got a nomination in the last Broadway revival.)

[JBroadway]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 11:22am

Interesting that this thread has taken a sudden turn in the “Bareilles winning” direction, when it feels like the consensus up until now was that Victoria Clark was nearly a sure-thing. I have no horse in the race, as I thought both performances were very good, but neither one screaming for a Tony win. I’d probably give the edge to Clark in terms of the quality of performance, but I agree that it would be great to give Bareilles her first Tony, for a variety of reasons - some of which have been mentioned.

[Mr. Wormwood]

Posted: 8/7/22 at 11:31am

ElephantLoveMedley said: "I certainly think Phillipa Soo could be nominated in Featured Actress for her Cinderella. Her performance is so beautifully sung and shows her surprisingly strong comedic chops in addition to her heart and depth in Act 2. I thought she was a total standout in this cast. (Plus, the role got a nomination in the last Broadway revival.)"

Agreed. She absolutely deserves a nomination. Just like Sara, she found new and wonderful things in the character (and the Cinderella character is not typically one of my favorites).