Mr. Wormwood said: "RippedMan said: "Which shows? Every Best Musical winner - besides A Strange Loop and Passion - have turned into hits and made a profit. So, there's that."
This year could be an interesting test. Is it the Best Musical win (can advertise that, etc) or is it winning it on a Tonys telecast? It's particularly interesting this year with a frontrunner that is struggling at the box office. There are plenty of people who aren't convinced Kimberly Akimbo can run much longer regardless of what happens with the Tonys. I still think the Best Musical winner (likely Kimberly) will benefit from a Tony win bump even without the Tonys in their traditional format.
What I think could suffer are some shows that could use the exposure of the Tony Awards to win some awards and, perhaps more importantly, put on a good performance. In particular, I think it will be interesting to see the trajectory of Shucked, SLIH & NYNY.
In general, shows with a lot of nominations/wins and/or a strong Tonys performance tend to perk up at the box office for a bit but it doesn't last all that long. But that could also be a natural uptick with the summer months.
This year might put some of those theories to the test with four new musicals all with murky futures at the moment and a non-traditional Tonys (whether it be non-televised, pre-taped, postponed, etc). I still think postponement is the worst option."
The trouble with drawing too many conclusions from this year is that there are too many variables. Let's say Kimberly Akimbo wins Best Musical and gets only a mild bounce that peters out pretty quickly. Is that because there was no traditional Tony Awards telecast or is it because the show is just too hard to sell even with awards and critical praise? We would be able to debate that but won't really know the answer.
While I agree with Kad and HogansHero that some better model is needed to promote new shows, I also think it makes plenty of difference how new shows do at the Tonys, both in terms of wins - especially Best Musical - and performances. It's still a three-hour infomercial on network television for going to New York City and seeing Broadway shows or, failing that, catching them on tour. There are still plenty of people who don't monitor social media about what shows to see. They just wander by the TKTS booth and pick something they've heard something good about.
The smaller, quirky shows that have won Best Musical in recent years - Fun Home, The Band's Visit, Hadestown - all went on to recoup. Fun Home, at least, recouped on tour too. I'm not sure about the other two, but the Hadestown tour is now on second rounds of major markets. A Strange Loop, which isn't even touring at all, is the exception. I didn't see Fun Home on Broadway and The Band's Visit closed before I got back. But I saw both on tour - twice, in Fun Home's case.
Before all of this happened, I was operating on the assumption that Kimberly Akimbo would be a weak Best Musical winner, at least on Broadway. Nothing that's happened thus far suggests that word of mouth is turning the show into something that tapped into the zeitgeist, as Dear Evan Hansen did. I've thought it would probably close in January. Could be wrong, as I'm just guessing. That said, I am a little more bullish about its chances on tour, because it will be in every subscription package and won't have to do fantastic, especially as most of the tour stops are only for a week. It will be touted as a Best Musical winner and that will be enough for a solid tour.
But the other new musicals, and Kimberly Akimbo as well, may lose an invaluable opportunity to promote themselves either to extend their Broadway runs to or hype their upcoming tours. This is an unusual year, in that - with the partial exception of & Juliet - there are no new musicals that are doing well at the box office. There's no Six, no MJ, just new musicals that are limping along while all of the attention has gone to the revivals and a few plays. I don't think a big splashy Tony Awards broadcast, even if it happens in some form that people watch, is going to change that.