Robbie2 said: "Amelie along with A Bronx Tale & Charlie and the Chocolate Facfory... I predict no Tony nominations!"
I can see Borle getting nominated for Charlie rather than Falsettos, simply because it's the one running. I can also see his two performances splitting the vote and leaving him out altogether, allowing Corey Cott to easily make the cut. I feel like Amelie will get something minor- a design nom, or orchestrations.
Either way, if my money were on which show is most likely to have a complete snub, it would be A Bronx Tale. They may still get one somehow (Cordero? Choreography?). But there just seems to be no love for it in the industry - not hatred either, but a fair amount of snootiness and a whole lot of shrugging. My sense is that no one really was crazy about it enough to fight for any of its elements over shows they loved much more or at least found more ambitious and interesting, and the general sense will be "It's found its audience, it's doing fine, and in this jam-packed season for a so-so show that's reward enough." (The same thinking may apply to Anastasia as well, but I expect it to be nominated for a couple things as well- Score, Actress, or Featured Actress, etc.)