2022 Tony Awards Predictions- Page 3

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 10:16am

Funny how most contenders for Revival of a Play have yet to do a performance. Macbeth, Buffalo, Drive and Colored Girls are such likely contenders.

Do we think Take Me Out and Plaza Suite have a chance?

Also, who are the frontrunners in lead for the play categories? I think Parker, Aduba and Negga may fight for the award, am I missing someone?

I have no idea who wins Actor, maybe Beale?

[JBroadway]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 12:55pm

As of the recent announcement, Aduba will be in featured. 
 

I expect Parker will be a major contender, and Negga might be in the mix too, but sometimes Lady Macbeth can be a hard role to stand out in as a lead since she has so much less stage time than Macbeth. 
 

I haven’t seen all the contenders yet, but I’d be happy to see the remaining nominations go to Dierdre O’Connell, LaChanze, and Emily Davis. Debra Messing is also in the mix. 

[VotePeron]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 2:35pm

quizking101 said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "Companywill win the most awards (Featured Actor, Featured Actress, Direction, Orchestrations, Set Design, Revival) - and get the most nominations - among the eligible musicals, whileA Strange Loopwill be awarded with both the Triple Crown and Leading Actor in a Musical for Jaquel Spivey.Clarke will take home Leading Actress in a Musical,SIX's consolation prize will be Costume Design, andMusic Manwill take Choreography. Every other musical is going home empty-handed.

There you have it.

"
I was with you for most of this, but I think Leading Actor is far from a foregone conclusion when it’s such a hotly contested race (Spivey, Jackman, McClure, Crystal, and Frost), and having not seen Spivey yet, Frost is my clear winner by a high margin. I also see MJ snagging up choreography easily - if anything, that might assuredly be it’s one prize of the night.

With Broadway reopening and so many good shows coming out in spades, I think we are definitely in for a year where the prizes are evenly divided.

"

Between Doubtfire's hiatus and Frost's attendance record, Jaquel Spivey has it in the bag. It's not only the best role out of the 3, but it's a star making turn. If Santino hadn't won for Tootsie I probably would be leaning McClure, but we'll have to see which way the wind blows.

Let's not forget, that it's often the most crowded years in theater that the prizes are not evenly split. Dear Evan Hansen was the only new musical to win an award in 2016, as was The Bands Visit in 2018 (save Scenic for Zinn). 

[Broadway61004]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 3:45pm

VotePeron said: "quizking101 said: "EDSOSLO858 said: "Companywill win the most awards (Featured Actor, Featured Actress, Direction, Orchestrations, Set Design, Revival) - and get the most nominations - among the eligible musicals, whileA Strange Loopwill be awarded with both the Triple Crown and Leading Actor in a Musical for Jaquel Spivey.Clarke will take home Leading Actress in a Musical,SIX's consolation prize will be Costume Design, andMusic Manwill take Choreography. Every other musical is going home empty-handed.

There you have it.

"
I was with you for most of this, but I think Leading Actor is far from a foregone conclusion when it’s such a hotly contested race (Spivey, Jackman, McClure, Crystal, and Frost), and having not seen Spivey yet, Frost is my clear winner by a high margin. I also see MJ snagging up choreography easily - if anything, that might assuredly be it’s one prize of the night.

With Broadway reopening and so many good shows coming out in spades, I think we are definitely in for a year where the prizes are evenly divided.

"

Between Doubtfire's hiatus and Frost's attendance record, Jaquel Spivey has it in the bag. It's not only the best role out of the 3, but it's a star making turn. If Santino hadn't won for Tootsie I probably would be leaning McClure, but we'll have to see which way the wind blows.

Let's not forget, that it's often the most crowded years in theater that the prizes are not evenly split. Dear Evan Hansen was the only new musical to win an award in 2016, as was The Bands Visit in 2018 (save Scenic for Zinn)."

Not true about the Evan Hansen year (which was actually 2017). Come From Away won director, Natasha Pierre picked up two design awards and Bandstand won choreography.

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 8:40pm

A STRANGE LOOP will be this year's PASSING STRANGE.  It will get lots of nominations, and will likely only win a best book award as a consolation prize.

[jkcohen626]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 8:42pm

JSquared2 said: "A STRANGE LOOP will be this year's PASSING STRANGE. It will get lots of nominations, and will likely only win a best book award as a consolation prize."

What is beating it for best musical?

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 3/20/22 at 9:44pm

jkcohen626 said: "JSquared2 said: "A STRANGE LOOP will be this year's PASSING STRANGE. It will get lots of nominations, and will likely only win a best book award as a consolation prize."

What is beating it for best musical?"

And, for that matter, Score, Book, and Leading Actor?

[Dylan Smith4]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 8:53am

EDSOSLO858 said: "jkcohen626 said: "JSquared2 said: "A STRANGE LOOP will be this year's PASSING STRANGE. It will get lots of nominations, and will likely only win a best book award as a consolation prize."

What is beating it for best musical?"

And, for that matter, Score, Book, and Leading Actor?"

SIX and Strange Loop will definitely be fighting for the creative awards, especially Book, Score, and Best Musical. I think SIX will win Best Score and Strange Loop will win Book and Best Musical along with the possibility for Best Leading Actor. 

[JSquared2]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 10:55am

Best Musical will com,e down to SIX vs MJ.  Voters won't be crazy about either one -- but many of them will HATE Strange Loop!

Best Actor is Hugh Jackman vs Myles Frost vs Billy Crystal with Rob McClure as a POSSIBLE upset.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 11:01am

Even if voters don't like STRANGE LOOP as a show, if its lead actor's performance is anywhere near as good as Larry Owens, that's pretty hard to ignore. Especially when people feel indifferent about Hugh Jackman and who knows that's going on with Doubtfire.

Michael Oberholtzer could stand a good chance at a nom (or win?) for his performance as Shane in TAKE ME OUT.

[akhoya87]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 11:38am

JSquared2 said: "Best Musical will com,e down to SIX vs MJ. Voters won't be crazy about either one -- but many of them will HATE Strange Loop!

Best Actor is Hugh Jackman vs Myles Frost vs Billy Crystal with Rob McClure as a POSSIBLE upset."

I think best musical just comes down to popularity vs. art.  Six is incredibly likable, has very catchy tunes, a meh book, and tremendous vocal performances.  Strange Loop will be polarizing due to its subject matter, but strangely resembles more of a "traditional" musical in some ways.  Also features great vocal talent, but in a much different way than Six - more cacophony than harmony.  

I don't see how MJ is in the running.  I can see Myles Frost in the running for Best Actor, and MJ being in contention for Best Choreo.  But the book was a snoozer.  (I don't blame Lynn Nottage - she worked with what the MJ estate gave her.)

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 11:54am

I think we have to view SIX as the clear frontrunner until/unless anything else upsets it. It's a hit, it's a good time and deals with some issues without being preachy, and it's incredibly economical for the road.

But the wealth will be spread this year –– SIX wins Musical, maybe also Score, Orchestrations, Costumes, Lighting, Sound. It won't win any Acting, Directing (Elliott again?), Choreography (Wheeldon again?), Book (Strange Loop?), or Set Design.

[ljay889]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 12:35pm

If there’s a Company juggernaut, it could definitely be a contender for orchestrations, lighting, and sound. Direction and set design is pretty much a given at this point. 

[EDSOSLO858]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 12:43pm

ljay889 said: "If there’s a Company juggernaut, it could definitely be a contender for orchestrations, lighting, and sound. Direction and set design is pretty much a given at this point."

It's a given for Orchestrations, and I would be real happy if it wins Lighting Design. Who knows with Sound Design.

[bwaydreamer]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 12:48pm

Is there anyone who will give Matt Doyle a run for his money in featured?  I think he did a decent job but he tripped up on the words when I saw it and also didn't really do much with the song.  I don't understand the love for his performance and am hoping he has some competition. 

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 12:57pm

I mean, David Paymer is reprising a role that got him an Oscar nomination, so maybe he could pose a challenge. I know pretty much nothing about the original film, his performance, or how it’ll transfer to this musical though. But I think Doyle will be in the clear. He didn’t trip over his words in my performance and the audience clearly loved him. I also disagree that he didn’t do much with his song, I’d say he was getting in as many laughs as he could throughout his whole performance.

I’d say a bigger question with Company isn’t whether Doyle wins but which of the other supporting actors join him. I’m guessing Elder does but I’m not sure whether Fitzgerald or Sieber makes it next, I’m thinking one of them does.

Updated On: 3/21/22 at 12:57 PM

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 1:10pm

Based on what I've seen, I would consider Jefferson Mays and Jay O. Sanders the Featured Actor frontrunners right now. But neither is guaranteed to get nominated. Maybe Jared Grimes or (in a bit of category fraud) Ramin for FUNNY GIRL?

Matt Doyle would be a pretty weak Featured Actor win, imho. I'd be surprised if any of the COMPANY guys got in actually...in an ideal world, both LuPone and Simard will get noms. Maaaaaaybe Chris Fitzgerald.

Paymer is fine in the movie but that was kind of a strange nomination. We'll see how he fares onstage.

Is anyone in MJ a serious contender?

Updated On: 3/21/22 at 01:10 PM

[JBroadway]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 1:17pm

Is Matt Doyle really considered the frontrunner? God, how sad. I thought he gave one of the blandest performances in a production packed with amazing actors, and probably the most forgettable "Not Getting Married" I've ever seen.

But looking at the contenders, it seems like a really weak category this year, so I guess it makes sense. I guess we could be looking at:

Matt Doyle  (if everyone insists)
David Paymer
Austin Scott
Robert Sella
and...idk, Sidney SuPont I guess? Anyone big that I'm missing? 

I'd love to see the kid from Caroline or Change get in, if he's eligible. Did the kids split the performances half and half, or 6 / 2? 

If it was totally up to me, I'd also throw in Christopher Fitzgerald (not that his role in Company is particularly large, but I found it memorable). I wouldn't mind Elder getting in too - in fact I'd prefer both of them over Doyle.
 

 

[troynow]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 1:19pm

BEST ACTOR of a Musical

Myles Frost MJ

BEST ACTRESS of a Musical

Sharon D Clarke- Caroline or Change

Supporting Actress of a Musical

Patti LuPone- Company

Best Actress of a Play

LaChanze- Trouble in Mind

Best Actor of a Play

Adrian Lester- Lehman Trilogu

Supporting Actress of a Play

Phylicia Rashad- Skeleton Crew

Supporting Actor of a Play

Forrest McCleddon - Thoughts of a Colored Man

Best Revival of a Play

Macbeth

Best New Play

Thoughts of a Colored Man

 

[ljay889]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 1:44pm

JBroadway said: "Is Matt Doyle really considered the frontrunner? God, how sad. I thought he gave one of the blandest performances in a production packed with amazing actors, and probably the most forgettable "Not Getting Married" I've ever seen.

But looking at the contenders, it seems like a really weak category this year, so I guess it makes sense. I guess we could be looking at:

Matt Doyle (if everyone insists)
David Paymer
Austin Scott
Robert Sella
and...idk, Sidney SuPont I guess? Anyone big that I'm missing?

I'd love to see the kid from Caroline or Change get in, if he's eligible. Did the kids split the performances half and half, or 6 / 2?

If it was totally up to me, I'd also throw in Christopher Fitzgerald (not that his role in Company is particularly large, but I found it memorable). I wouldn't mind Elder getting in too - in fact I'd prefer both of them over Doyle.


"

I suspect both Doyle and Elder will be nominated, like their counterparts in the London production 

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 3:04pm

bwaydreamer said: "Is there anyone who will give Matt Doyle a run for his money in featured? I think he did a decent job but he tripped up on the words when I saw it and also didn't really do much with the song. I don't understand the love for his performance and am hoping he has some competition."

Really? I’ve seen it four times already and never once had he tripped up his words, nor got anything less than rapturous applause from the audience. I think he’s essentially a solid lock and Elder has a strong case for a nomination, but there have been very few supporting actor - musical performances this year that have managed to really wow me. The only other person I would assuredly nominate in this category would be Austin Scott (who was amazing in NORTH COUNTRY).

Sella, Fitzgerald, and Mays did good jobs, but nothing I would consider to be amazing. MJ’s only real featured actor is Quentin Earl Darrington, which, while fine, doesn’t crack as Tony-worthy in my book. Same goes for Oscar, Ghee, and Evans from DOUBTFIRE.

We also have yet to see Paymer and Grimes

Whoever suggested Jay O. Sanders, I believe he is earmarked as Leading Actor, as is Mare Winningham.

 

[Brave Sir Robin2]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 3:18pm

While Austin Scott was incredible, I think there's a world in which Marc Kudish could also be nominated for GIRL FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY in Supporting Actor.

I think A STRANGE LOOP will take Musical and Book, but SIX could give it a run in Score. There's also a strong chance for Marianne Elliott to take direction for COMPANY.

The fact that Best Actor could look like Crystal, Frost, Jackman, McClure, and Spivey would be one of the strongest line-ups in recent memory. Best Actress is less clear, depending on reviews for Kalukango and Feldstein. Patti winning for Supporting Actress would be the only lock to me, although there's a lot of special performances I'd love to see nominated (Tamika Lawrence, Caissie Levy, Kimber Elayne Sprawl, and Jeanette Bayardelle, especially.)

[ATerrifyingAndImposingFigure]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 3:29pm

With the talk of the Featured Actor, it’s unlikely that it happens, but with the earlier talk of maybe Assassins transferring to Broadway, I’m pretty sure Steven Pasquale and Will Swenson would be the biggest threats to Doyle’s frontrunner status. Though I don’t think that’ll happen, at least not this season, and they’d probably split enough votes for Matt to still win.

I will say, I’m pretty interested in how Christopher Fitzgerald fares here. He doesn’t have much of a role in Company, but he really did make the most of the part when I saw him, and I feel like I’ve heard that sentiment elsewhere.

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 3:50pm

Too late for ASSASSINS (or anything else) to transfer this season.

If ASSASSINS comes next season, Swenson would likely have to be replaced because he's playing Neil Diamond.

Regarding COMPANY, Simard and Fitzgerald are the Supporting MVPs for me because they created funny and wonderful characters out of roles that don't have a ton to work with on the page. Doyle is "doing the assignment." Most people are good in that role if they can master the song.

[ashley0139]

Posted: 3/21/22 at 5:53pm

I don't really get the Elder and Simard love, and I know I'm in the minority. I think Elder does fine with the role, but doesn't rise above the material. It's just...fine. It's kind of a bland character to me. In my opinion, Simard is over the top as Sarah. I enjoyed her more as Joanne personally. Her Sarah is just...too much. But again, I know I am in the minority opinion on both of these.

On the other hand, I would totally give a nom to Sieber. I think he does great, layered things with a relatively small role.

And just praying for a nomination for Lenk still. I know she won't win in this insanely stacked category, but I need her to at least be nominated.