Official Way Too Early 2018 Tony Predictions Thread- Page 11

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 1:30pm

Even with vote split, it would be hard for Boyle to win.

If Lane goes featured, he's winning, hands down.

If the category is McArdle, Jarrett and Pace, McArdle is the clear MVP.

Angels is taking this category either way.

[Sauja]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 1:33pm

Lindsay is a goddess said: "I must be ignorant, but can someone enlighten me as to what Harry Potter’s choreography entails? Is there some kind of a Yule Ball scene or something?"

Not ignorant at all. It's hard to describe. There's a lot of very motion/dance based transitions, act openers, etc. It's not traditional "dance" but if you've seen Steven Hoggett's work on plays like Black Watch or (to a lesser extent) The Glass Menagerie, you might have a sense of how it works. It's quite stunning and would be a thoroughly untraditional winner which would make it quite exciting in my book. To me, the only show that rivals it is Once On this Island.

 

I'm surprised to see all the love for Lindsay Mendez in Carousel. I think she's a brilliant performer--she was extraordinary in Dogfight, and I adored her in Significant Other, but I found her Carrie really awkward and out of sync. I mean...to be fair, I thought everyone was in a different show and only Joshua Henry came off well. I blame the director--there are too many incredibly talented people on that stage for the performances to be so variable. But as gifted as she is, I thought she was kind of...bad. But perhaps I'm the only one!

[sorano916]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 1:43pm

MadsonMelo said: "Even with vote split, it would be hard for Boyle to win.

If Lane goes featured, he's winning, hands down.

If the category is McArdle, Jarrett and Pace, McArdle is the clear MVP.

Angels is taking this category either way."

It's interesting that Lane didn't even get an Olivier nomination, though. McArdle was good, but he wasn't mind-blowing either.

As much as I love Pace, I wasn't enthralled with his performance and doubt he'll get an nomination. Jarrett was one of the ones who got an entrance applause when I saw it. I really liked his performance.

 

Do we know when the next nomination ruling is?

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 1:49pm

The third ruling last year was on April 6th, the first Thursday of the month. They should be coming out very soon. I'm most curious to see if Caissie Levy is placed in Leading or Featured and where Nathan Lane is placed. 

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 1:54pm

Yep, and Metcalf too.

I believe if those performers goes to featured categories they can all win.

Also, do you guys think its possible to Levy to get a lead nom and Murin be left out? Even with the latter dominating the show based on stage time.

[little_sally]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 2:26pm

I don't see how Lane or Metcalf could be considered featured.

[MadsonMelo]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 2:52pm

Metcalf not really, but as a conjoined production, I can picture Prior as the sole lead.

Roy doesn't have much to do in Perestroika. Leibman wasn't even nominated for the original production, nor lead or featured.

[BroadwayConcierge]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 3:01pm

In this production at least, I really saw Prior Walter as being the only lead of the show. I thought Roy Cohn was the most prominent of the featured character, but a featured character nonetheless. This is definitely Prior's rodeo.

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 3:11pm

Roy definitely feels featured in Angels in America. Lane's performance is incredible but *spolier* his character dies before the final act, so there's a large portion of the show where he isn't even really present. This production feels like it's Prior's story.

[funhamilton_rent]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 4:27pm

Bwayfan292 said: "Do we think its possible for Once on this island to beat out My fair lady for revival?"

Definitely, though I think those will be the 2 main contenders for every category because the original musicals are so weak this year.

 

[LesWickedly]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 4:32pm

funhamilton_rent said: "Bwayfan292 said: "Do we think its possible for Once on this island to beat out My fair lady for revival?"

Definitely, though I think those will be the 2 main contenders for every category because the original musicals are so weak this year.

 

"

Just because you don’t like The Band’s Visit doesn’t mean it’s the only opinion. It is the main contender for many categories and will take home the biggest award of the night, including others. 

 

[funhamilton_rent]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 4:45pm

LesWickedly said: "funhamilton_rent said: "Bwayfan292 said: "Do we think its possible for Once on this island to beat out My fair lady for revival?"

Definitely, though I think those will be the 2 main contenders for every category because the original musicals are so weak this year.

 

 

 

"

Just because you don’t like The Band’s Visit doesn’t mean it’s the only opinion. It is the main contender for many categories and will take home the biggest award of the night, including others."

 

 

 

I didn't say that at all. Compared to the last few years where there have been multiple raved about Best Musical-worthy shows (Hamilton, Waitress, Shuffle Along & DEH, Great Comet, and CFA), this year has been undeniably weak. That's literally all I was saying...

 

[Danielle49]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 6:04pm

Many folks here on the board have been divided on Joshua Henry (who I personally haven't seen yet) and have been wowed by Harry Hadden-Paton's Higgins. Only a few thought he was lackluster. Meanwhile, Ethan Slater received nearly unanimous praise in the press. The voters don't strike me as people who would allow a SpongeBob musical to win any big awards, though. Are we expecting the press to agree that Hadden-Paton is a clear winner at this point?

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 6:08pm

Danielle49 said: "Many folks here on the board have been divided on Joshua Henry (who I personally haven'tseen yet) andhave been wowed by Harry Hadden-Paton's Higgins. Only afew thought he was lackluster. Meanwhile, Ethan Slater received nearly unanimous praise in the press. The voters don't strike me as people who would allow a SpongeBob musical to win any big awards, though. Are we expecting the press to agree that Hadden-Paton is aclear winner at this point?"

IDK I think when Carousel reviews come out Joshua Henry will get a lot of praise. IMO the show would have been dead in the water without him. Harry Hadden-Patton gives a very likable performance of Higgins and that's no small feat to make Higgins likable. However I don't think the role of Higgins has as much depth as Billy and I could see Joshua Henry walking away with the Tony.

[Daddy Warbucks]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 11:29pm

Bwayfan292 said: "Do we think its possible for Once on this island to beat out My fair lady for revival? "

For sure.  But we’ll know more after the reviews for MFL come out.  If it gets the same sort of across the board raves that OOTI received, it’ll be an interesting race because of how different the two shows are.  

 

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 11:50pm

poisonivy2 said: "Danielle49 said: "Many folks here on the board have been divided on Joshua Henry (who I personally haven'tseen yet) andhave been wowed by Harry Hadden-Paton's Higgins. Only afew thought he was lackluster. Meanwhile, Ethan Slater received nearly unanimous praise in the press. The voters don't strike me as people who would allow a SpongeBob musical to win any big awards, though. Are we expecting the press to agree that Hadden-Paton is aclear winner at this point?"

IDK I think when Carousel reviews come out Joshua Henry will get a lot of praise. IMO the show would have been dead in the water without him. Harry Hadden-Patton gives a very likable performance of Higgins and that's no small feat to make Higgins likable. However I don't think the role of Higgins has as much depth as Billy and I could see Joshua Henry walking away with the Tony."

I don't think just because a role has "more depth" as you put it. Means that another role that is masterfully acted and sung could not beat it. And as you've stated, you haven't seen Carousel. So how can you see anyone walking away with a Tony from something you haven't even seen?

[GeorgeandDot]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 11:55pm

^You're confused. Poison has seen Carousel and posted a review just the other day. She was quoting someone else who said that they haven't seen it.

[poisonivy2]

Posted: 4/3/18 at 11:57pm

Broadwaystar2 said: "poisonivy2 said: "Danielle49 said: "Many folks here on the board have been divided on Joshua Henry (who I personally haven'tseen yet) andhave been wowed by Harry Hadden-Paton's Higgins. Only afew thought he was lackluster. Meanwhile, Ethan Slater received nearly unanimous praise in the press. The voters don't strike me as people who would allow a SpongeBob musical to win any big awards, though. Are we expecting the press to agree that Hadden-Paton is aclear winner at this point?"

IDK I think when Carousel reviews come out Joshua Henry will get a lot of praise. IMO the show would have been dead in the water without him. Harry Hadden-Patton gives a very likable performance of Higgins and that's no small feat to make Higgins likable. However I don't think the role of Higgins has as much depth as Billy and I could see Joshua Henry walking away with the Tony."

I don't think just because a role has "more depth" as you put it. Means that another role that is masterfully acted and sung could not beat it. And as you've stated, you haven't seen Carousel. So how can you see anyone walking away with a Tony from something you haven't even seen?"

WTF? I have seen both Carousel and MFL. I posted about taking my mom to Carousel the other day:

http://poisonivywalloftext.blogspot.com/2018/04/easter-is-for-musicals-carousel-and.html

I also saw MFL early in previews and plan to go back on April 10 to see the show after it's been frozen.

[Broadwaystar2]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 12:14am

poisonivy2 said: "Broadwaystar2 said: "poisonivy2 said: "Danielle49 said: "Many folks here on the board have been divided on Joshua Henry (who I personally haven'tseen yet) andhave been wowed by Harry Hadden-Paton's Higgins. Only afew thought he was lackluster. Meanwhile, Ethan Slater received nearly unanimous praise in the press. The voters don't strike me as people who would allow a SpongeBob musical to win any big awards, though. Are we expecting the press to agree that Hadden-Paton is aclear winner at this point?"

IDK I think when Carousel reviews come out Joshua Henry will get a lot of praise. IMO the show would have been dead in the water without him. Harry Hadden-Patton gives a very likable performance of Higgins and that's no small feat to make Higgins likable. However I don't think the role of Higgins has as much depth as Billy and I could see Joshua Henry walking away with the Tony."

I don't think just because a role has "more depth" as you put it. Means that another role that is masterfully acted and sung could not beat it. And as you've stated, you haven't seen Carousel. So how can you see anyone walking away with a Tony from something you haven't even seen?"

WTF? I have seen both Carousel and MFL. I posted about taking my mom to Carousel the other day:

http://poisonivywalloftext.blogspot.com/2018/04/easter-is-for-musicals-carousel-and.html

I also saw MFL early in previews and plan to go back on April 10 to see the show after it's been frozen."

Ok calm down and take a deep breath. It's not that serious! My apologize, my message was not meant to make you go nuts. But I still stand by what I said about a role "not having as much depth" as a role that is very well executed.  And I'm glad your mom liked it.

Updated On: 4/4/18 at 12:14 AM

[JudyDenmark]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 1:20pm

Call me crazy, but I think Ethan Slater's gonna take it. I'm not discounting the other two heavy hitters.... but the man IS SpongeBob. His performance in that is really exceptional, he's the true lead of the show, and I really don't know how they'll find another actor to perform it as perfectly. I think he deserves it.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 1:30pm

I can see a world where Tony Shalhoub takes it. He’s a respected actor and three-time Tony nominee. If the voters are on a Band’s Visit high, he could very well win with no apparent front runner.

[Bwayfan292]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 1:32pm

I think Ethan Slater will for sure get nominated, (and he deserves it!) but I dont see Spongebob picking up alot of noms mabye for Coustume and Set design, but I think Once on this island has set design in the bag.

[little_sally]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 2:04pm

Bwayfan292 said: "I think Ethan Slater will for sure get nominated, (and he deserves it!) but I dont see Spongebob picking up alot of noms mabye for Coustume and Set design, but I think Once on this island has set design in the bag."

I can see it getting orchestrations, director, and choreography as well. It got better reviews than Frozen, so I don't see why it won't get Best Musical.

[Lindsay is a goddess]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 2:09pm

There really is no front runner in Leading Actor. I can see Shalhoub, Slater, Hadden-Paton, or Henry taking home the trophy.

[HeyMrMusic]

Posted: 4/4/18 at 2:11pm

To complicate prognostication, Shalhoub will not be in contention for any awards leading up to the Tonys.