Official Way Too Early 2018 Tony Predictions Thread — Page 13

Its such a weak year that I believe Mean Girls can get two or even three featured Girls nominated.

Mendez and Salonga are likely. But who else? Will they really like Bands Visit to nominated people that barely sings? Or Rigg in a non-singing role for MFL? Will OOTI have the Power to nominated Miller?

Its a tricky one.

SomethingPeculiar said:
People were impressed with his performance in RAISIN IN THE SUN, too (after much pre-previews skepticism about his age), and then he didn't even get nominated. But maybe there will be regret for overlooking him in 2014?

I think Washington was probably suffering with movie star/fatigue backlash in 2014. Daniel Radcliffe was snubbed the same year as well, and many thought he was worth a nomination as well. A lot of rank and file Broadway people seemed miffed that all these A-list screen actors were hoovering up Tonys (as happened the year Washington won with Scarlett Johansson and Catherine Zeta Jones).

Will that affect Washington now? I'm not so sure. He feels like a legitimate Broadway fixture now. He's obviously not in this to win a Tony. He's got one already, and he's rich and respected enough not to need to ever do stage again. He's an actor who loves theatre, whose regular returns are now a vital and much welcome boost to the Broadway economy. I don't think people vote for winners for that reason specifically, but if he gets nominated, I don't think it'll hurt him.

Updated On: 4/9/18 at 03:57 AM

I think Mean Girls is now a lock for a Best Musical nom since it's reviews were better than Frozen.

Best Musical noms:
A Band's Visit
SpongeBob
Mean Girls
Frozen?

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IdinaBellFoster said: "I don't see Salonga getting nominated. She was good, but she's hardly who I think about weeks after seeing the show."

I agree; I'd rather see Kenita Miller or Merle Dandridge get nominated. I found Salonga forgettable.

I'd also rather see Kate Rockwell and Ashley Park nominated over Barrett Wilbur Weed. But it would be interesting to see how they place Louderman.

 

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Well, guessing, these are how the nominations will be spilled as far as my counting goes:

The Band's Visit - 10/12 nominations;

Once on this Island - 10 nominations;

Mean Girls - 8/10 nominations;

My Fair Lady - 9 nominations;

SpongeBob - 7/8 nominations;

Frozen - 6/8 nominations;

Carousel - 4/6 nominations.

Mean Girls and SpongeBob are the most difficult to predict, they can go really high (like 12 for Mean Girls or 8 for SpongeBob) or they can go really low (7 for Mean Girls and 5 for SpongeBob).

My current thoughts on the performance nominations:

Lead Actor: Harry Hadden-Paton, Joshua Henry, Tony Shalhoub, and Ethan Slater (only four)

Lead Actress: Lauren Ambrose, Hailey Kilgore, Katrina Lenk, Jessie Mueller, Patti Murin

Featured Actor: Norbert Leo Butz, Grey Henson, Gavin Lee, Alex Newell, Ari'el Stachel

Featured Actress: Caissie Levy, Lindsay Mendez, Kenita R. Miller, Diana Rigg, Kate Rockwell

Updated On: 4/9/18 at 07:40 PM

LOL! Oops! Fixed it, thanks, pupscotch

Elegance101 said: "Also, I still don't think Kenita Miller will get the nomination. The role just wasn't very big and I think Salonga has a flashier role (mainly because she's Lea Salonga)."

I agree about Kenita. I have nothing against her, but tbh it didn't even occur to me that she might be a contender until I saw all the posts on this board about how much everyone adored her. I thought both she and Boykin were very good, but to me they were not stand-outs. I kind of feel like this "Kenita will be nominated" train is a bit of a pipe dream constructed by like-minded Broadwayworld users. But hey, I could very much be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time a nominated (or winning) performance went right over my head while watching the show.

Who knows, we could possibly see Dandridge, Miller, and Salonga all nominated. I think they’re all deserving and are giving (or have given in Dandridge’s case) standout performances in Once On This Island. As much as I love Renée Fleming as a singer and overall performer (and there’s no one who sings Nettie’s songs better than she), I’d rather see the OOTI women recognized before her. We’ve seen instances where ensemble shows have three performers nominated in one category. In a “crowded but weak” category, you never know.

EponineThenardier said: "Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Gough won for supporting/featured and Dumezweni won for leading. They could both win, yippie!"

Sorry, but they won the same award for Supporting Actress in different years. 

Yes, they can.

Oh, no they can't.

Updated On: 4/11/18 at 11:46 PM

It's really a bummer that there were SO many great original shows last year and they all sorta canceled each other out. This would be such a better year for Comet and Bandstand and Groundhog Day and War Paint. Dear Evan Hansen just kinda crushed all of them. This is a weak year. One of the weakest years in a while.

Not to say everything is bad, but very little is fresh.

I guess it'll be nice though for David Yazbeck to finally have a year of recognition haha I mean nothing is standing in the way of Band's Visit winning.

Updated On: 4/11/18 at 05:57 PM

HeyMrMusic said: "Who knows, we could possibly see Dandridge, Miller, and Salonga all nominated. I think they’re all deserving and are giving (or have given in Dandridge’s case) standout performances in Once On This Island. As much as I love Renée Fleming as a singer and overall performer (and there’s no one who sings Nettie’s songs better than she), I’d rather see the OOTI women recognized before her. We’ve seen instances where ensemble shows have three performers nominated in one category. In a “crowded but weak” category, you never know."

I fully support Salonga and Miller, but I just can’t see an actress who left the role before January receiving a nomination. It just doesn’t seem plausible to me, regardless of how strong Dandridge’s performance was. Her chances went the way of Papa Ge the second she left the role.