I definitely see Wicked winning the Box Office award, but I wouldn't be surprised if this film ends up taking the Best Musical/Comedy category. After getting tons of spots on the BAFTA longlists yesterday as well as more nominations at the Globes, it feels like Emilia is the favored musical for the European voters this year, with Wicked doing much better with awards here in the US so far.
As for the film…I just spent much of the runtime wondering why they wanted to make this a musical. Found myself frequently mystified by the way they chose to make this story sing. There are twinkling moments of brilliance: Saldaña raising a rage-fueled toast in "El Mal", the whispers of a grieving son blossoming into a lullaby, or even the times when the rhythm of loading guns and traffic noise is simply allowed to seep into focus.
If they really leaned in, maaaan this could’ve been a walloping rock opera, a modern Evita or Jesus Christ Superstar. Or it could have gone the Kander & Ebb route, stepping out of reality to sing about society or comment on the story. Instead we get a dash of this and that, ending up with a film that doesn't have a strong grasp on what the songs are here to do. Some plop timidly into the plot, most cut away suddenly to the next scene, ripped off the vine before any of the ideas have a chance to mature into something meaningful.
It often felt like the musicalization was thought of as a standalone effect, like toggling color filters or slow-motion on and off, rather than a wet ingredient that chemically changes the structure of the story's batter. When your characters first start to sing (especially when they start to sing sincerely), it changes the rules of reality for the audience. It changes how they're being asked to pay attention, and it's best when the music is then allowed to communicate throughout. It should work its way into our bones and shift our perspective and transform the story in a way nothing else can. Otherwise, it's like using a sparkler to make s'mores: a brazen approach, but why?