This discussion came up in the Unpopular Opinions thread, but I don't want people getting cranky about that thread getting hijacked by more Hamilton talk so I'm tossing out my take since the musical's quality and staying power has been debated here.
I haven't been to New York in a long while. My wife and I used to go a lot during the late '80s and early '90s and would see a bunch of shows on a long weekend. Last month, we went with our younger daughter (teenager) and saw four shows (Wicked, Book of Mormon, Shuffle Along, Hamilton). We came back to the San Francisco area and saw a touring production of Kinky Boots, a show we heard good things about while in New York. So we've seen a bunch of award-winning musicals lately.
Hamilton is in its own category. I realize the show benefits from the frenzy surrounding it, the scarcity of tickets, and the original cast. There's no way to truly know now whether the show will be regarded as a game-changing classic or a clever musical that provided a very Obama-era take on the Founding Fathers (or a few of them anyway) that will be treated as a product of its time.
I think Hamilton will hold up better than some expect because of the quality of the songs and the impressive ambition of the show. It's a musical that should be more clever than moving, but manages to be both. I listened to the soundtrack before we decided to buy tickets to make sure my rap-hating wife would not kill me. It didn't take long to realize she wouldn't hate it, that the range of musical styles (and Lin-Manuel Miranda's ability to present old school rap at its most accessible) would repeatedly catch her off-guard. And seeing the show, even from rear mezzanine, showed off the impressive staging and choreography. The original cast will be leaving soon, and the replacements might not be as good. Same with the touring productions.
But the songs are still going to be terrific. One of my daughter's favorite songs was, "Dear Theodosia," which no one usually mentions as a highlight. "You'll Be Back" ls brilliant and hysterical. The "Helpless/Satisfied" one-two punch is ten minutes of Broadway at its finest. The rap battles are great, even better because they reference obscure American history and make it compelling to people who know nothing about it. "The Room Where it Happens" was my favorite live Broadway performance ever. "It's Quiet Uptown" is a sad and beautiful ballad. I'm leaving many songs out here, and that's the point.
The show didn't suffer from Second Act disease, unlike most of the other musicals we saw. It was at least as good, if not better, after intermission. That's awfully hard to pull off. I also don't think the "novelty" of performers of color playing white historical figures will end up being a big deal. It might be less of a selling point for the show in the future, but that's more because it won't seem all that unusual.
The biggest problem for the show? Who will play Lafayette/Jefferson in future productions? The number of actors who can rap that fast and understandably, while also stealing every scene he's in, seems like it might be small.