Which shows will Covid-19 end?- Page 2

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:40am

Very curious about what happens with the Tonys.

Whenever Broadway reopens, it will be within the League's best interest to extend the nominating window until 4-7 wks after resuming perfs, followed by the Awards ceremony. It is Broadway's most important advertising tool, and the shows that survive it will need the exposure more than ever.

But, that also raises questions about the dates for the 2020-21 season, if they hope to keep the ceremony in June 2021.

As for which shows make it, I don't even want to begin guessing. I bet we'll also see the closure of at least one prestigious not-for-profit theatre who can't weather the storm.

To quote Avenue Q, it sucks.

[Jordan Catalano]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:49am

I was just reading that Shanghai Disneyland which closed on January 25th has been starting to reopen. They haven’t opened the park yet, only some shops and restaurants in their Downtown Disney but it gives me a bit of hope for things to come here.

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 1:40am

The economic hit everyone will be taking during and after this doesn't help either. With so many losing income and tourism building gradually, there is no chance for Broadway to come back with the same insane ticket prices. It will be an extreme luxury to most.

The shows that survive would have to be sure hits or have extremely low running costs.

[jonartdesigns]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 3:48am

Blaxx- maybe this will be a good time to bring broadway ticket prices back to somewhere manageable. I think the days of shows with 2 million dollar weekly grosses are going to be in the past.

[TheGingerBreadMan]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 3:53am

While I think that it would be wonderful from a consumer's standpoint to see lower ticket prices all around, I simply don't think that's feasible from a producer's standpoint. Even with how high ticket prices are today, a large percentage of shows still don't recoup. Lower costs will lead to even less shows recouping, which in turn will provide less incentive for producers to keep bringing shows to the Great White Way. I don't see it happening.

[quizking101]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 5:40am

I think of the shows from the cast standpoint, since many of them will likely have other projects booked that will narrow the window where they can do their Broadway show, should it reopen

- THE MINUTES - I’m sure Armie Hammer and Tracy Letts have other commitments down the pike that would make it hard for them to extend their run.

- VIRGINIA WOOLF - Laurie Metcalf goes back to film THE CONNERS sometime in August (and I already saw on Telecharge that the closing date was moved to August 2nd with the initial shutdown).

- CAROLINE OR CHANGE - May never open or night but without Sharon D. Clarke unless Equity makes a hardship exception that allows her to stay longer to do the run (same with the primarily British casts of HANGMEN and THE LEHMAN TRILOGY)

- BIRTHDAY CANDLES - Not sure what Debra Messing has down the pike, but Andre Braugher will eventually have to go back to film Brooklyn Nine-Nine.

- AMERICAN BUFFALO - Can’t imagine Sam Rockwell or Darren Criss have a wider window than the limited engagement.

[BenElliott]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 8:42am

We might see some of these productions moved to Spring 2021 perhaps. If Laurie can't do it this year, pop the set in storage and bring it out next year maybe. Rudin has pretty much all the Broadway power, he could probably do it.

I doubt Company or Flying Over Sunset will close permanently. Both have serious financial backing.

I agree that they'll need to drop ticket prices for a bit to bring people back in.

[Ladylusiphur]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 8:56am

Crossing my fingers and hoping that Caroline opens, and perhaps extends a run for a few months. I'd wanted to see this for a long time but our currently booked trip is scheduled for August so when the tickets went on sale I wasn't expecting it'd still be around by then anyway. 

It's still a slim chance that it'll open at all of course under the circumstances, but you never know. (as long as we're not still feeling travel impact later in the year of course, as we're coming from the UK) 

[Lot666]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 9:03am

There has been a lot discussion, in this thread and others, regarding the fate of the current season's shows. What do you suppose will happen to the long-running stalwarts like The Lion King, Wicked, Chicago, and Phantom? And how does theatre rental work in a situation like this - do the shows have to pay the theatre even while the venue itself is closed?

[Impossible2]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 9:11am

The only ones that will close or not open are the ones where the cast has scheduling conflicts and they may  even just be recast.

The main reason they closed Broadway apart from public safety was so everyone's insurance policies kicked in and whatever loses they incur will be covered. 

[BJR]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 9:29am

blaxx said: "The economic hit everyone will be taking during and after this doesn't help either. With so many losing income and tourism building gradually, there is no chance for Broadway to come back with the same insane ticket prices. It will be an extreme luxury to most.

The shows that survive would have to be sure hits or have extremely low running costs."

Yup. This may not have easier to weather if it was a month, but if it ends up being 2-3 months, then it's going to really hit the economy hard. Tourism will have ground to a halt and many locals will largely have lived off savings for possibly months.

 

Impossible2 said: The main reason they closed Broadway apart from public safety was so everyone's insurance policies kicked in and whatever loses they incur will be covered.

Yes, this is true. They couldn't call it themselves and file claims. But if shut down by the city, they could. Hopefully, that help some stay on their feet. But the longer the wait, the less likely, of course.

I saw HANGMEN on Wednesday and I think Riedel is right and it won't return. Shame, because it was fantastic.

[singerunlimited]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 9:36am

I'm assuming all of the long-running/recouped shows will be able to weather the storm, yes?

[blaxx]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 11:12am

singerunlimited said: "I'm assuming all of the long-running/recouped shows will be able to weather the storm, yes?"

Not necessarily. If a few of them were surviving by barely breaking even, then it may not be wise to re-open. There is no way they will just immediately go back to the same profits.

[Impossible2]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:02pm

blaxx said: "singerunlimited said: "I'm assuming all of the long-running/recouped shows will be able to weather the storm, yes?"

Not necessarily. If a few of them were surviving by barely breaking even, then it may not be wise to re-open. There is no way they will just immediately go back to the same profits."

Name 1...

[Impossible2]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:02pm

blaxx said: "singerunlimited said: "I'm assuming all of the long-running/recouped shows will be able to weather the storm, yes?"

Not necessarily. If a few of them were surviving by barely breaking even, then it may not be wise to re-open. There is no way they will just immediately go back to the same profits."

Name 1 apart from Chicago which has been on it's last legs for a while...

[VintageSnarker]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:17pm

singerunlimited said: "I'm assuming all of the long-running/recouped shows will be able to weather the storm, yes?"

The Lion King and Wicked are probably fine. I'm not as sure about Chicago or Phantom if the shut down lasts longer than April... and possibly into the fall. 

[JennH]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:33pm

JVJ93 said: "Y’all are crazy. This closure is not lasting 3 months."

If you DON'T think this is a possibility, you're being straight up foolhardy. This more likely than anyone cares to admit. I've already taken some major hits in my own life, and already have received an expected notification about an important job opportunity being postponed til heaven knows when. While I currently think 3 months is less likely then 2, lets be honest...we're right on the cusp of 3 becoming a reality. Take nothing for granted. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. 

[JennH]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 12:41pm

VintageSnarker said: "singerunlimited said: "I'm assuming all of the long-running/recouped shows will be able to weather the storm, yes?"

The Lion King and Wicked are probably fine. I'm not as sure about Chicago or Phantom if the shut down lasts longer than April... and possibly into the fall."

Genuinely pure question. I agree about Chicago, but Phantom? That show is is still rolling in it, I can't imagine it wouldn't return...unless I missed something about it's finances.

Also, about ticket prices...sadly running costs are still the same despite lower ticket prices. That model can only go on so long. It could work to build back up, but certainly isn't a long term solution. 

[ErmengardeStopSniveling]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 1:37pm

Let's please not forget that whenever these venues open up again, it's still going to be considered a risk to go into a large space for a few months. COVID won't disappear overnight. So, yes, we'll see discounts out of necessity, because no show will be at capacity in the first few weeks. People may also be fearful of spending money if the stock market continues to bounce.

Truly scary and uncertain times.

[singerunlimited]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 1:38pm

Agreed! I am really surprised that Phantom is the show everyone keeps bringing up as being in limbo because of the virus. It's been running for 32 years and is still selling well. Yes, much of its longevity is due to tourism. But surely this wouldn't give them reason to close it down after this long.

According to the latest update from Riedel, he has spoken to Webber who says it's not closing: https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/the-show-will-go-on-how-broadway-will-survive-coronavirus/

[Impossible2]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 1:44pm

singerunlimited said: "Agreed! I am really surprised that Phantom is the show everyone keeps bringing up as being in limbo because of the virus. It's been running for 32 years and is still selling well. Yes, much of its longevity is due to tourism. But surely this wouldn't give them reason to close it down after this long.

According to the latest update from Riedel, he has spoken to Webber who says it's not closing:https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/the-show-will-go-on-how-broadway-will-survive-coronavirus/"

Of course it's not, the rumour was bollocks from the start x

[AlanB3]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 1:50pm

From NYT live updates:

"As the virus continues to spread across the United States, public life is increasingly shut down. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now recommends a ban on gatherings of more than 50 people for the next eight weeks. And on Monday morning, officials said that guidance would be enforced in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut." Updated On: 3/16/20 at 01:50 PM

[OKBroadwayFan]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 2:02pm

As a die hard theater fan, my daughter and I will be back to see shows ASAP.   But what about the tourists?  Are people going to go on vacations and trips?   The tourist dollars are a big chunk of the ticket sales for the shows.  

[jonartdesigns]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 5:05pm

Chicago has survived changing theaters TWICE, and costs very little to run. Plus, the Weisslers seem to be hell bent on having the longest running show on Broadway. Plus the Ambassador theater is not ideal for too many productions.

[chrishuyen]

Posted: 3/16/20 at 5:10pm

According to Roundabout's email, they're definitely still trying to produce 72 Miles to Go..., Caroline, or Change, and Birthday Candles:

"Meanwhile, Roundabout has made a commitment to pay our artists and staff during this shutdown, for their livelihood and our ongoing work to ensure we have great theatre—including 72 Miles to Go..., Caroline, or Change, and Birthday Candles—ready to share with you soon."

I'm pretty doubtful that any of the long running shows will close after this, though I wonder if Moulin Rouge's costs will catch up to them, especially if they have a much smaller tourist season than originally anticipated.  Shows like Book of Mormon, Come From Away and Dear Evan Hansen could be on the decline too, but that's a shot in the dark from my end.