Which shows will Covid-19 end? — Page 3

Impossible2 said: "singerunlimited said: "Agreed! I am really surprised that Phantom is the show everyone keeps bringing up as being in limbo because of the virus. It's been running for 32 years and is still selling well. Yes, much of its longevity is due to tourism. But surely this wouldn't give them reason to close it down after this long.

According to the latest update from Riedel, he has spoken to Webber who says it's not closing: https://nypost.com/2020/03/12/the-show-will-go-on-how-broadway-will-survive-coronavirus/"

Of course it's not, the rumour was bollocks from the start x"

The rumor was no doubt started by Riedel himself; that would certainly be on-brand for him.

I'm relieved to hear that ALW has no intention of closing Phantom, but I am a bit nervous about that phrase "refresh it". Cameron Mackintosh already did that, and the results were quite disappointing IMHO.

I do think this long hiatus will benefit long-running shows that have gotten a little stale. Whenever things are back up & running, these long-running shows should get a new energy to it with everyone wanting to get back to work & to the theaters.

I believe Once Upon a One More Time announced it’s Chicago cancellation today.

Edit: Yes, it was canceled

Updated On: 3/17/20 at 08:40 PM

There are a number of facts which will affect this: (please note- I am NOT in the industry, just trying to think the issue through logically- which can be dangerous)

1. Shows' loss of income- obviously, the shows are not taking anything in right now. Now, most of the productions/theatre owners/other interest holders likely have some sort of business interruption insurance or event cancellation insurance, but these may have exclusions which render this kind of situation not covered. Also, they certainly have SOME type of maximum amount they will pay. So while insurance may make up some of the lost income, it will not do so indefinitely. How much insurance helps a production depends on what kind of insurance was purchased and how long this lasts.

A lot of the shows WERE (according to grosses analysis on Playbill) selling at or near (or even above) 100% capacity- so there COULD be room for at least some reserves. (I do realize this capacity was sometimes obtained via deep discounts on tickets) Do productions put aside "rainy day funds"?

2 Expenses- While not bringing in income, the productions' expenses have to be substantially reduced. Do they still need to pay rent to the theatre owners? Even if they do, might a theatre owner prefer to have a show set up in their theatre (even if they lose a little rent) than face the re-opening with the theatre dark? How many productions are going to be planning a Broadway run until we know when "the show can go on" again? (This may actually HELP some of the shows stay open- gives reasons for theatre owners to try and work with them).

The other expense issue is the cost of restarting. Promotion may not be a big deal- the reopening of Broadway will likely be in the news. However, there will probably be some costs to get things up and running again. Some level of rehearsals/run throughs will likely be needed, if only to make sure mechanical sets are working and to make sure everyone remembers specific blocking to avoid being injured by standing a foot or so away from their usual mark and end up getting hit by a set. It also may be necessary to bring in some new cast members and get them rehearsed

3. Casts and other professionals/employees - Assuming they aren't being paid, actors, stage hands, musicians, dressers, makeup/hair people, etc may eventually need to look for some other jobs. Its conceivable acting venues elsewhere in the country may open before Broadway and people will go to those. People may need to take non-performing or even non-entertainment jobs. With "work from home" a possibility, there may be jobs to be had. If the new job includes a contractual obligation (or requires moving to a new location), suddenly the production has to hire people- adding to rehearsal and other re-start costs, and possibly slowing the ability of a production to reopen. Yes, I know all these folks have contracts with the productions they were with at the time of the shutdown, but will these be enforced if the folks aren't being paid? Plus if someone's contract runs out with no guarantee of when the show is coming back, they may simply move on.

4. Effect of shutdown on other businesses- Sadly, some restaurants and hotels are not going to survive this. If this becomes too severe, the Times Square area may drift back towards the "bad old days" before all the work was done to bring business in. While less of a direct effect, if hotels/places to eat are limited, its simply not going to be as pleasant for out-of-towners to come to shows- making recovery harder.

OK, so I've probably overthought this. But my point is there are a number of moving parts here, making it hard to predict what shows will survive. I also think its a bit naive to take the "Broadway will bounce back stronger than ever" view. A number of shows closed after 9/11 and that involved a relatively short closing (yes I know people were scared to travel after that, but the same may be true here in different ways). All we can do it wait and hope.

Times Sqaure is not going to drift back into the "bad old days". If anything, it may resemble after the Great Recession when a slew of shows closed, there were some empty theatres, and the investors were more risk-adverse for a while.

And sadly, it could mean some no-profit companies with cash flow problems go under.

Here's an interesting Riedel article with some theories.

Something tells me, along with these mentioned, that Hadestown has been doing well enough to survive. And Six has so much potential that it'll probably at least try to stick around. The others...I don't know, you guys. Contrary to what he says, I don't think Frozen will survive that long after. I think it'll try, but it's already been going down in profits, and it'll no longer have the added boost in the summer of the Frozen 2 release on Disney+.

Matt Doyle and Etai Benson were just on Company's IG Live, and they said they don't know when Company will be back, but Marianne Elliot and Chris Harper are doing everything in their power to ensure that it returns.

It’s inevitable that some -- maybe even most -- shows won’t survive this shutdown. Like others on here, I'm confident about the Disney shows; CURSED CHILD; the "staples" like PHANTOM, WICKED, CHICAGO, HAMILTON...Even the newer shows that are doing well and/or are relatively cheap to run such as HADESTOWN, DEAR EVAN HANSEN, COME FROM AWAY -- I'll even be optimistic and say SIX. In general I'd say if a show has recouped and is still bringing in income (or, was still bringing in income) they have a good chance at surviving.

What's sad is the ones that won't survive. I wish that all doomed shows could get to do one final show and have a proper closing night when Broadway reopens, but the negative side of me knows that seems unrealistic.

There are questions that need answering in order to determine if a show will reopen and/or survive.

1. What are its expenditures during the closure?

2. Does it have enough money in reserve to cover those expenditures and if they have insurance will it cover it?

3. How much lead time is needed to get the show up and running once the all clear is given? They can't just go in and recommence performances. They have to rehearse, make sure everything works properly, etc. Will that take more than a couple of days? Will it take a week? That's an added expenditure.

4. The audience for each show will be the determining factor whether or not it will truly survive. Is the audience local or tourists? There is going to be a significant downturn in tourism, so if a show relies mostly on tourism it's unlikely to survive, even if it does manage to reopen.