Just my 2 cents, the Ben Platt fan base from Dear Evan hansen was anywhere between 13-17 back in 2018, at it’s peak. Now they are 18-23, and as somebody who was part of this grouping, they either grew up and continued to love theatre or moved on by now. Something that’s different, however, is now they do have jobs and money to go out and see Parade, especially if they live further. Summer months (aka, after May) will be great for this show, because they will be out of university, ready to travel, and have the money to do it in a way that a lot of them couldn’t when other “youth power” fanbase shows like Be More Chill and Beetlejuice were around.
It’s also unrealistic to expect Platt on his own to sell the show singlehanded based off of his name, Everybody saw what happened to his solo tour (TLDR: he only sold the floor, it was very empty , they had to comp people, and sold it on Goldstar). We’re even seeing with Josh Global in Sweeney Todd that a name that was reliable among the youth fanbase (He was in Great Comet of 1812, which was the exact same season as hansen) once upon a time will not be immediately reliable in advance right now. We’re savvy, we have money now but are still learning to be responsible.
I hope this doesn’t read too awfully ramble-y, but in summary we cannot rely on big names from 2017 (Ben Platt and Josh Groban) to sell shows anymore. They need to be in a quality show with positive or at least lukewarm word of mouth, and their fanbases that now have money need to be energized and ready to go to the show for full price, which they may not be able to do at this point in their lives with this economy.
However, I am going to see both (with rush tickets, as I always do). And, anecdotally, I checked on my school’s website for their theatre group tickets, and Parade has 2 dates both with a “selling fast” banner next to it, but I can’t find Sweeney Todd listed, so it’s possible that it sold out already or is not available for school groups yet. I’ll say I’m optimistic about both shows finding success this season!