Posted: 9/15/23 at 11:13am
Truly surprised this one is coming this season. But hey! More musicals! Regardless I'll be there!
Posted: 9/15/23 at 11:18am
The more I think about this the more I think OP is talking about the Booth. It's barely smaller than the Golden and they should be so lucky to fill all the seats. We know Kimberly isn't doing well and it's just a matter of if they try to get through the end of 2023 or shutter before then.
There had been talk of a different tenant lined up for the Nederlander but that has since announced a different house. I kinda doubt Shucked will be around for its one-year Broadway birthday, but for now it is hanging in there better than any of us expected.
Of course OP could be misinformed. The Lyceum and Longacre both have unannounced tenants
Updated On: 9/15/23 at 11:18 AM
Posted: 9/15/23 at 11:24am
Again, this show is far too big and with FAR too many principal cast contracts to play the Booth. It would need at least 1,000 seats at minimum to even hope to break even without selling tickets at a $500 premium which this show does not have enough heat on it to warrant.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 11:42am
I think Akimbo and Shucked are sticking around through 2024. The Music Box seems more and more likely for this show. I doubt they'd consider the Marquis.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 11:50am
OhHiii said: "Many limited runs have extension options written into their theater agreements. They have a certain amount of time to exercise those options. That would be the case for Purlie and Shark."
Out of curiosity, I checked Purlie's casting notice, and you're right, it looks like they were originally contracted through March 3rd. Which means, in theory, they could be hoping that sales massively pick up, in order to make use of the 2-month extension build into their contract. And that decision could be delaying Suff's announcement.
But even then, I'd argue it still doesn't fit the criteria the OP laid out. Because in the scenario the OP described, the theatre is secured, and it's only the announcement of the current tenant's closing date that they're waiting on. Implying that the internal, behind-the-scenes decisions have already been made.
Whereas with Purlie, it's the exact reverse; they've announced their closing date, and the only thing up in the air is a behind-the-scenes decision about whether they'll want to exercise their full extension. And even that is assuming the Purlie producers are being wildly optimistic, whereas I'd guess at this point they're probably aware that sales won't pick up enough to justify a 2 month extension. And if that's the case, then it would mean Purlie has both publicly and internally landed on a January closing.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 12:14pm
JoeW4 said: "OhHiii said: "But even then, I'd argue it still doesn't fit the criteria the OP laid out. Because in the scenario the OP described, the theatre is secured, and it's only the announcement of the current tenant's closing date that they're waiting on. Implying that the internal, behind-the-scenes decisions have already been made.
Whereas with Purlie, it's the exact reverse; they've announced their closing date, and the only thing up in the air is a behind-the-scenes decision about whether they'll want to exercise their full extension.And even that is assuming the Purlie producers are being wildly optimistic, whereas I'd guess at this point they're probably aware that sales won't pick up enough to justify a 2 month extension. And if that's the case, then it would mean Purlie has both publicly and internally landed on a January closing."
You're assuming what the OP said is 100% fact. I could be completely wrong and they could be swinging big and going into the Shubert, but that would be such stupid producing that they'd deserve the short run they would get out of that (see: POTUS). Unless A Beautiful Noise fell below their stop clause over the summer and even though they have a strong advance into the Fall that they close up shop at the end of the year. Ken Davenport doesn't strike me as a producer to give up that easily, however. He isn't closing that show bringing in $1m/wk in September, we'll see what happens in the next 6 weeks...
Separately, I've heard a rumor that Tommy was/is in talks for the Broadhurst at some point as well (which is a production that has MUCH more heat on it than Suffs).
Re: Purlie, yes they've announced a closing date, but have not been running long enough to officially pass on using their extension option. So the word announcement in the OP may be a red herring in that regard. Suffs would be announced by now if it were to start in November/December. This is for a run in the Spring, so the show they're replacing only has to be closed at the top of 2024 in order for that timeline to work.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 12:26pm
OhHiii said: "You're assuming what the OP said is 100% fact."
True enough / fair enough. But I sort of thought that was the exercise we were doing. Any part of the OP's statement (even the entire statement) could prove to be false, so we should definitely take it with a grain of salt. But as long as we're just having fun trying to parse out the "riddle" presented to us, we might as well go by the letter until we get more info. Though I do hear your point about using a kind of process of elimination of the other houses based on different variables. Time will tell, I guess!
Updated On: 9/15/23 at 12:26 PM
Posted: 9/15/23 at 12:39pm
I knew they were still working on it...but felt it wouldn't be this season.
THAT being said: I am stoked. We LOVED it at the Public. (Not that it didn't need work!)
Posted: 9/15/23 at 1:00pm
Missed this at the Public (before I moved back to the city). My performance I had a ticket for was canceled for my trip due to COVID in the cast. Stoked to have the chance to finally see this, though!
Posted: 9/15/23 at 1:04pm
I could see them going for the Shubert. Some Like Hot will likely play through the end of the year. And I doubt they'd want their main theater sitting empty for awhile.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 1:05pm
The original message only says the show currently playing there is struggling and uses the word "epic".
Is there a reason no one has guessed the Walter Kerr? Yes Hadestown recouped/is a hit. But their current grosses don't seem to indicate solid footing at the moment. They close by the end of the year and Suffs comes in the spring?
Posted: 9/15/23 at 1:17pm
To my knowledge, Lempicka wants the Kerr if that were to happen and the director is already in good standing with them. So I'd imagine if that were to happen it would be Lempicka's call.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 1:28pm
RippedMan said: "To my knowledge, Lempicka wants the Kerr if that were to happen and the director is already in good standing with them. So I'd imagine if that were to happen it would be Lempicka's call."
This narrative really needs to be stopped on these boards because it's not based in any semblance of fact. Unless a show has a specific need that a theatre offers (i.e. Circle in the Square for in-the-round/thrust stagings, Broadway for the space to renovate for HLL, etc), they have zero say in the space. The production requirements by way of fly and wing space, enough seats to realistically generate enough gross potential to turn a profit after expenses, producer relationships with theater owners, etc are what goes into this outside of just pure real estate availability. Sure, directors can give their preferences to their producers, but it's producers and general managers that secure any given show in a theatre. If Broadway shows had their creatives dictating which theatre they wanted, shows would never see the light of day.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 1:49pm
I don't know the logistics of announcing closing dates, but if a show is a limited engagement, isn't that fact usually announced at the time the show is announced (e.g., Days of Wine and Roses, Parade, Into the Woods). It's only on these boards that I've seen Purlie Victorious mentioned as a limited run. I just looked at The Broadway League website and there's no closing date listed for PV, although there's no closing date for DOWAR, for which I've seen a closing date of April 29 elsewhere. I'm so confused.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 2:05pm
jagman1062 said: "I don't know the logistics of announcing closing dates, but if a show is a limited engagement, isn't that fact usually announced at the time the show is announced (e.g., Days of Wine and Roses, Parade, Into the Woods). It's only on these boards that I've seen Purlie Victorious mentioned as a limited run. I just looked at The Broadway League website and there's no closing date listed for PV, although there's no closing date for DOWAR, for which I've seen a closing date of April 29 elsewhere. I'm so confused."
No date given in this ad, but Mr. voiceover guy says "it's a limited engagement, so get your tickets now!"
https://youtu.be/-D_MEvQSfMo
Posted: 9/15/23 at 2:17pm
Its definitely not the shubert, my friend working on it says BOOP is going there in the new year. And just cause a show SAYS its running thru X does not mean the theater owners won't invoke their stop clause which they can do at any point regardless of ig the stop clause was reached early or later in the run.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 2:18pm
RippedMan said: "I could see them going for the Shubert. Some Like Hot will likely play through the end of the year. And I doubt they'd want their main theater sitting empty for awhile."
Wasn't it theorized that POTUS got a good deal on rent because the Shuberts wanted the theatre filled even though there were better-sized theatres for that show available? Maybe same thing could happen here?
Posted: 9/15/23 at 4:04pm
So so psyched about this. We LOVED Suffs at the Public. Yes, it needed streamlining, but there was so much brilliance there. Hopefully Philippa Soo can join now that Camelot is closed!
Posted: 9/15/23 at 4:59pm
I agree with those who think the OP is talking about the Booth. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see Kimberly wrap things up in January. The Golden doesn't make sense because Shark is a limited run so no need to wait to announce. And I think it's too soon to stake a claim for Music Box even though I do anticipate it being open in the Spring. Shubert feels too big and I think the jury is still out on how much time Beautiful Noise or Shucked have. A dark horse but unlikely horse - the Lena Horne?
Posted: 9/15/23 at 5:21pm
I just counted. Including OUAOMT and the shows that have opened already.... 14 new musicals this season. Not including revivals. Y'all this is NUTS.
Is there going to be too much supply and not enough demand???
Posted: 9/15/23 at 5:39pm
Voter said: "I just counted. Including OUAOMT and the shows that have opened already.... 14 new musicals this season. Not including revivals. Y'all this is NUTS. Is there going to be too much supply and not enough demand???"
I count 8 new musicals with announced opening dates as of today, where on earth are you getting 14??
I don't have numbers in front of me but I can't imagine there are many more shows running now than in any other average season around this time of year. Some financial surprises (BTTF, Just For Us); some things that wouldn't have sold at any time of year (Once Upon, Shark); some things that might have been better opening in April (HLL). By mid January, there will probably be only two shows still running that opened in the 22-23 season (Juliet and Noise).
Posted: 9/15/23 at 5:54pm
THis got pretty bad reviews off-broadway I will be surprised to see if it works on Broadway, I kind of feel the recent 1776 revival crashing should be a big red flag
Posted: 9/15/23 at 6:06pm
ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Voter said: "I just counted. Including OUAOMT and the shows that have opened already.... 14 new musicals this season. Not including revivals. Y'all this is NUTS. Is there going to be too much supply and not enough demand???"
I count 8 new musicals with announced opening dates as of today, where on earth are you getting 14??"
Isn't it 10 new musicals that have been officially announced for this season as of today?
1. Back to the Future
2. Days of Wine and Roses
3. Gutenberg! The Musical!
4. Harmony
5. Here Lies Love
6. How to Dance in Ohio
7. The Notebook
8. Once Upon a One More Time
9. The Outsiders
10. Water for Elephants
This and potentially Lempicka would make 12.
Posted: 9/15/23 at 6:14pm
Ooooh so psyched! It’s been one of my most anticipated since its Public run! (Which I sadly never saw).
