ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Is Tommy Kail winning the Tony for Best Director of a Musical again?
That field is wide open this year, with some of the top shows of the season not being natural contenders there. The direction for Kimberly and Juliet are both weak, and musical comedies like SLIH and NYNY aren’t always rewarded for directing. Could be Kail, Arden, Lear D, and then Bart Sher, Jack O’Brien, Casey N, and/or Stro fighting for the final slots."
The lineup I'm currently predicting consists of Kail, Nicholaw, Sher, Stone, and Stroman. Arden and Lear are both possible, but they could still be vulnerable given the bare bones, concert style nature of Parade and Into the Woods, respectively. Granted, Walter Bobbie managed to win this award for doing just that with Chicago in 1996. Then again, productions that have mainly been seen as acting achievements rarely land directing nominations. My predicted 5 could all have legs up for having showier stagings.