The 78th Annual Tony Award Nominations for 2025 — Page 10

MadsonMelo said: "BOM said: 'If it were up to me, Operation Mincemeat would receive the best score, best featured actor, and best book. I'm gonna assume its only getting featured actor."

With the lack of love that Mincemeat got, even Malone may be in trouble because they really like DEAD OUTLAW and Jeb Brown is basically a co-lead."

If I could bet on the Tonys like I do sports, I'd put a lot of money on Jak Malone.

It worked for me earlier today.

HeyMrMusic said: "It worked for me earlier today."

I tried three dates that had seats yesterday and now that I decided to purchase they are all back to regular prices. I really blew this one as I had a feeling this might happen. Glad you were able to get them. :)

I’m very, very satisfied with the Best Actress in a Musical line up. It’s a legendary category this year. I’m sad about Seiber. Was he in Featured or Lead?

HeyMrMusic said: "It worked for me earlier today."

They are back up again. I wonder if Telecharge was doing an update of some sort.

I will defer to those with more knowledge of such things, but my operating theory is Maybe Happy Ending is the frontrunner, even though the Tony nominating committee showed a lot of love for Buena Vista Social Club and, to a lesser extent, Dead Outlaw and Death Becomes Her.

The only sign of weakness Maybe Happy Ending showed was a lack of acting nominations outside of Darren Criss. But the nominating committee isn’t the same as the full Tony voting body.

My theory of why Maybe Happy Ending will win is the lack of an obvious alternative that voters underwhelmed by MHE can agree on.

Buena Vista Social Club, which I didn’t see on my recent trip to New York City, was nominated for its book but even its biggest fans say the story isn’t the reason to see the show. More than a few critics describe it more as a concert. Even the special award it’s getting, for the band, emphasizes that point. The musical has been doing well at the box office and should do even better based on these nominations and word of mouth. The show actually seems like the most promising non-MHE alternative.

Dead Outlaw is a critical favorite but I just don’t see the show emerging as a real contender. I think as many voters will find its nihilism off-putting even as others embrace its strengths. I have described the show as being as sentimental as barbed wire and that’s not meant as an insult. But that also will make it a hard musical for many Tony voters to embrace because its creators aren’t going for that anyway.

I haven’t seen Death Becomes Her, but it’s a comedy and a film adaptation and those types of musicals don’t win the top prize.

Operation Mincemeat is also a comedy, with one obvious exception. Jak Malone feels like a lock, but it’s hard to imagine it winning Best Musical.​​​​​​

Maybe Happy Ending is a traditional book musical that’s heartwarming and bittersweet, familiar but uniquely staged. In a year when voters may want to spread the wealth, it could lose in a bunch of major categories and still win Best Musical.

I’m probably wrong here. And it’s still early in the campaign. But please point out the flaws in my theory.

Mean Girls got like 12 nominations and won 0. Great Comet similar was like 1 win out of 14.


I don’t see a world where Maybe Happy Ending loses. None of the other nominated musicals are loved enough to outweigh the commercial and industry embrace of MHE.

No import has won Best Musical in many, many years. DBH was the clear 5th slot out of Boop, Smash, RWHC, Swept Away. Dead Outlaw lost the goodwill from off-broadway in its prolonged transfer time.


BVSC is the biggest contender but it being a jukebox musical absolutely hurts its chances.

Updated On: 5/1/25 at 11:20 PM

VotePeron said: "Mean Girls got like 12 nominations and won 0. Great Comet similar was like 1 win out of 14.


I don’t see a world where Maybe Happy Ending loses. None of the other nominated musicals are loved enough to outweigh the commercial and industry embrace of MHE.

No import has won Best Musical in many, many years. DBH was the clear 5th slot out of Boop, Smash, RWHC, Swept Away. Dead Outlaw lost the goodwill from off-broadway in its prolonged transfer time.


BVSC is the biggest contender but it being a jukebox musical absolutely hurts its chances."

I hadn’t even thought about the jukebox angle with Buena Vista Social Club. When is the last jukebox musical to win, outside of Moulin Rouge in the pandemic year? It was Jersey Boys in 2005.

I just don’t see an alternative to Maybe Happy Ending.

But perhaps this year will break all the rules.

Updated On: 5/1/25 at 11:36 PM

I think MHE is clearly the frontrunner: it has the reviews, the support, the narrative, and it even makes sense as a consensus pick. It's safe but has artistic and cultural cred. It's small but has production value. It's high concept but also comforting. It's traditional but off-kilter just enough. It's just sort of unobjectionable to everyone.

I'm not as sure about its chances in Book, Score, or Direction. But Best Musical? It's really hard to see things falling another way right now.

Updated On: 5/1/25 at 11:56 PM

ErmengardeStopSniveling said: "Here are my very prelim opinions on winners in the musical fields. I think this will be a 2008 situation where a Revival wins the most awards and is the big story of the night. Meanwhile, a couple of new musicals split some big prizes — not dissimilar to 05 or 08.


MHE
Musical
Score
Scenic


MINCEMEAT
Book (which is also a way to honor its stars)
Feat Actor


BVSC

Choreo
Feat Actress


SUNSET
Revival
Director
Actress
Actor
Lighting
Sound

DBH
Costumes


ORCHESTRATIONS is stumping me. It often correlates with score (MHE). It could also go to one of the jukebox shows, butthe most likely one (BVSC) already won a special award for its band. Or, it gets swept up in the Sunset love."

————-

The Tony nominations were the first clear indicator that Sunset Blvd. is the favorite for Best Revival, because Gypsy director George C. Wolfe was not nominated (suggesting the nomination committee found something lacking in the production even though three actors were nominated).

It’s entirely possible that carries over to Nicole Scherzinger too, even though Audra McDonald seems to be regarded as the best thing in Gypsy - which isn’t nothing. I certainly don’t have a sense of whether Sunset Blvd. is going to be as dominant at the Tony Awards as you’re suggesting. Even in the South Pacific year of 2008, it had to contend with the last revival of Gypsy. A sweep of that scale, bringing along Tom Francis as Best Actor in a very competitive field, would suggest voters feel like Jamie Lloyd has done something almost as revolutionary as Hamilton - or at least as revolutionary as one can be reviving an 1990s-era Andrew Lloyd Webber musical.

Updated On: 5/2/25 at 01:15 AM

Am I the only one who feels the tides have turned in Darren Criss’ favor?

TotallyEffed said: "Am I the only one who feels the tides have turned in Darren Criss’ favor?"

They were always in his favor.

What happened to all the talk about Groff doing a double?

I liked MHE a lot, & thought Criss could take it easily. Francis was out when I saw Sunset.